Countdown to "The Natty" - Is Stopping the Oregon Run Enough?

If Auburn successfully sells out to stop the Oregon running game, is that enough to win the game?

That’s the conventional wisdom on stopping Oregon – bottle up the run and then play tight man coverage on the receivers and dare the Ducks QB to beat you through the air. Cal is the only team that effectively put that combination together against Oregon for most of a game. Cal still lost.

Look, it’s entirely possible that the Tigers will shut down the Duck run. Lord knows, the media and Auburn fans are crowing about their great "SEC defense."

I actually do not think it's likely they'll be very successful, but its possible. For the sake of arguement lets say they do bottle up UO running backs – especially early in the game. They’ll do that by crowding the line and selling out to clog up all running lanes inside with their big uglies, potentially even bringing up a safety to protect the middle, and then containing the outside run close to the line with LBs moving side-to-side (and those LBs from Auburn better be fast to do that).

OK. What does that leave open? Yep. The pass. Some teams when they become “one dimensional” like that on offense cannot capitalize on what the defense is giving them. News flash: Oregon can capitalize.

QB Thomas has at corps of talented and speedy receivers that can burn the not-that-great Auburn DBs if the Tigers are too focused on clogging up the line against the Oregon run and leave those corners "on an island" by themselves.

And, if Auburn’s D harasses Thomas with some pressure off the edge or bull rushing up the middle, he has the wheels and the moves to get out of it most times…usually then throwing a completion or running for yards.

To conclude, while I think it’s possible for Auburn to take away the Oregon run for chunks of this game, but a) I don’t think they can do it all game long, and b) even if they do, Oregon has the talent and scheme to make Auburn pay. And watch out for mid-third quarter and all of the fourth quarter. That's when defenses facing Oregon start to really wear out.

Therefore, I think the answer to today's question is, no...stopping the Oregon run would not be enough to win the game for Auburn.

Is A 12 Point Win In College Football A "Beat Down?"

Is a 12 point victory in college football a "beat down?"

According to the Husky Honks on KJR radio, it is.

That's because its the margin of victory for their beloved UW over Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl last week.

My opinion?

The win was an impressive, unexpected and well deserved win...but far from a "beat down."

No, Nebraska's early win over the Huskies by the score of 56-21 was a beatdown.

So was the Oregon win over the Dawgs by the sore of 53-16.

Not to mention the 41-0 win by Stanford over Washington.

And of course Arizona beat the Huskies 44-14.

Those are beat downs.

Seems like Husky Honks should know one when they see one.

Hey, feel good about your bowl win, but please...don't make it more than it was.

Countdown to "The Natty" - Who Can Contain Who?

Can the Oregon defense contain Cam Newton? And conversely, can Auburn’s defense contain Oregon’s O?

Simply put, Cam Newton is the key to this game. If he plays sensational, Auburn wins. If he plays average or has a bad game, it’s over for Auburn.

There are two things that lead me to believe this:

• First, Cam Newton is the single reason Auburn is undefeated. Running, throwing and even catching – he is a force of nature and has delivered the goods. I certainly have not seen all of Auburn’s games, but I’ve seen a lot of highlights and if he produces like he did against many/most opponents then Oregon is in trouble. If he comes back to earth a bit with a pick or two and limited running yards, I think this is a big blow for Auburn’s chances.

• Second, an “on fire” QB beat Oregon in last year’s Rose Bowl. Suddenly displaying savvy decision making and an uncanny knack for passing the ball dead on the money that had gone unseen all season long, Ohio State QB Tyrell Pryor is the primary reason the Ducks lost to the Buckeyes in the 2010 Rose Bowl. If Cam Newton performs similarly, look out.

OK, so...can Oregon’s defense contain him?

“Contain” is probably the key word because I suspect Newton will have his moments no matter what. But, Oregon has displayed an ability to contain QBs this year when they needed to – particularly in the second half of games. Andrew Luck, Nick Foles, Matt Barkley all come to mind.

The Duck DBs are really good and typically teams that go to the well too often with passes get picked off. Also, Oregon’s conditioning on D usually shows up in the third and fourth quarters and that’s when I see the Ducks starting to get pressure on the opposing QB and their running game. Both these things – solid DB play and consistent pressure up front – will be needed to win against Auburn. I think they can do it. If not, Newton will eat them alive.

Now, as for Auburn’s defense stopping the fast paced, multi-faceted Oregon offense, I think this is a tall order for the Tigers. I won’t say they won’t force some punts or three-and-outs, but nobody but Cal this season had the talent to go toe-to-toe with Oregon’s offense and Cal still lost. I doubt Auburn will be able to do it all game long.

And for those of you out there thinking to yourselves, “but Marc, didn’t Ohio State’s big defense shut down Oregon in the Rose Bowl…and won’t the SEC battle tested Auburn D do the same?” I would say to you that yes Ohio State did do a good job, but this year’s Duck team is different than last year’s…mainly at QB, but also the team now features some additional stars such as Josh Huff and David Paulson. This means now the Oregon QB is a real and consistent threat to throw down field. This was not the case with Masoli last season…and certainly not in the Rose Bowl. So, I think having this legit threat will boost the Duck’s chances of exploiting the Auburn D.

In the end, I think the team that slows down the other’s offense consistently will likely win this game. Sitting here right now, I’m thinking Oregon’s defense has a slightly better chance at this (but not easy at all) because they have to limit one guy – Cam Newton – while the Auburn D has too many weapons to try and shut down in any one play and all game long.

This Just In - World Ending on May 21

I see that another group is predicting that the "end of the world" is coming. Yes, they specifically believe that on May 21, 2011 Jesus Christ will "return to Earth" and usher in Judgement Day and the end of the Earth.

This kind of thing happens every year, and it's not necessarily tied to the Christian religion. After all, there are many ways the world could "end" and they don't all have to be via Jesus Judgement Day. But that's the most popular one year-in and year-out.

Anyway, my big plan for proving these nuts wrong is...

...to do nothing.

That's right. I'll prove these religous fanatics that they are wrong about the end of the world and Judgement Day coming on May 21 by simply not doing or saying anything...and when the sun rises and we all get through that day and the clock strikes midnight signaling the start of May 22, we'll all know that the prediction of the end of the world was false. Again.

And we can then look forward to the Christian nuts who will use the same Biblical text they predicated their prediction on to either a) justify why they were wrong, or b) come up with a new date for when it all comes to an end.

Ah, religion.

Countdown to "The Natty" - Does Winning the SEC Give Auburn an Advantage?

Is the fact that Auburn plays in the SEC and won that league this year reason enough to believe they will win the big game?

No, it is not.

The SEC is an excellent league, that’s for sure. But, the mere fact that Auburn plays in that conference and won it does not mean they are automatically better than any other undefeated team in any given year nor does it mean they will easily win the game against Oregon.

Yes, the SEC has depth, has consistently fielded high ranked teams and won most of the BCS-era national championships. Give them their due. They're good.

But on the other hand there are some areas of softness: 1) SEC teams don’t always play each other each year, with good teams often avoiding playing each other, 2) SEC teams (like teams from most conferences other than the Pac-10) play four non-conference games each year and you guessed it, they mostly schedule “cream puff” opponents, and 3) SEC teams typically only play four road games each year.

So, between playing a quarter of their schedule against cream puffs, more than half of it at home and not playing every other team in their league…yes, the SEC teams do manage to inflate their records and generate high rankings, but in those maneuvers there is reason to question the all-mighty status of the SEC when it comes to playing teams from other conferences. There is some evidence of this, for example, in how SEC teams are faring vs. other conferences in the bowl season. So far, the SEC teams have won 3 games and lost 4. If they were so dominate from top to bottom, wouldn't it be more like 6-1 or 7-0 at this point? Wouldn't Georgia be able to beat South Florida? Wouldn't Tennessee be able to beat North Carolina? Etc.

All of this simply means to me that the SEC winner is not automatically better than an undefeated champion from another conference. It just means that they are a very good team from a very good conference. That’s it.

Countdown to "The Natty" - Will Oregon's Pace Wear Down Auburn?

Will Oregon’s fast paced approach wear down Auburn enough to make a difference in the game?

Yes, I think it will. Here's why...

Everybody knows about Oregon’s “blur” offense: manic pace, quick strike, lethal execution, multiple weapons, options galore, and speed, speed, speed. Not only does it cause confusion for the defense every down, but it prevents the other team from substituting players. This breeds defensive mistakes that Oregon can capitalize on, and – over the course of a game – it wears defensive players down so that in the fourth quarter they are exhausted…and cannot keep up with Oregon.

I think this will be the case again in the big game. It has in all 12 other games Oregon has played, so I don’t see it being any different on Jan. 10. There are some in SEC land who I see saying things like, "well, that may work out there in the Pac-10, but our defenses are chalked full of such great players that it won't be a problem." OK, go ahead and keep thinking that. Please. I don't dispute that Auburn (and maybe even the SEC generally) has really great defensive talent. I don't. But, that talent doesn't have to deal with what Oregon dishes out. We'll see where the defensive talent for Auburn is in the third and fourth quarter after their butts have been run ragged all game long and their sucking wind...and Oregon's offense is not.

All that being said, I think there's another element where Oregon may have an advantage when it comes to wearing out their opponent. Defense. That's right. I think Oregon's defense will be in better shape, fresher and able to deal with "the Cam Newton show" a lot deeper into the game than will be the case for Auburn's defense vs. Oregon's offense.

Two reasons why:

1. Oregon’s defense practices all the time against a fast paced spread attack. They know it well. So, notwithstanding the talents of Mr. Newton, Auburn is not going to operate an offense or a pace that Oregon has not seen before. Yeah, they'll have to find a way to bring Newton to the ground...he's a load...but, I don't see Auburn bamboozling the Oregon defense or wearing out because of a fast pace.
2. More importantly, Oregon has great depth on defense, so they can substitute players in and out all game long to keep them fresher over the course of the contest. This pays off handsomely in the second half when, typically, Oregon’s D starts to dictate to the opponent’s offense and come up with turnovers.

 I think both of these defensive factors could be key in how the game comes out.

 So there you go. Yes, I think Oregon's pace on offense and freshness on defense will be a factor as it will wear out Auburn to a degree that in the second half Oregon can assert itself and - potentially - win.

Countdown to "The Natty" - Do Tight Wins Signal Trouble for Auburn?

Should we read anything into the fact that Auburn won four games by three points or less and two more by only one touchdown…often in come from behind efforts…as a sign of potential weakness compared to Oregon who dominated all but one opponent the entire season?

Or, should we see those series of events simply as evidence of a resilient, talented and motivated team?

Well, honestly, it's probably a mix of both with some luck thrown in...and the ball did bounce to Auburn's benefit an awful lot this season.

Certainly Auburn and SEC fans will say that the close wins are just evidence of the SEC being "the best conference in America." Pac-10 fans will say, right...you barely won six games while Oregon dominated all but one team it played.

But for the sake of argument, I'll say that yes...the fact that the Tigers had many close games and almost lost a few if not for some last minute magic and luck is indeed something they should be concerned with when playing Oregon.

Why? Those close calls by Auburn tell me that they're beatable. They are not a juggernaut that cannot be stopped. Nope. They are human. They can be defeated. There are things about that team that can be exploited. And for Oregon, they've been able to pick out such weak points in every team they've played and taken advantage to win every game they played...including that tight one against Cal.

Yes, a big reason why Auburn was able to come from behind and/or close the deal on close games is that they are talented and highly motivated. But, if teams like Kentucky, Alabama, South Carolina, Clemson, LSU and Mississippi State can give Auburn a run for their money - in some cases right down to the last minute of a game - then Oregon can too.

And, unlike those other teams...Oregon is better. They may be able to do what those other squads could not - finish off Auburn.

But that's part of the fun...we shall see.