Friday, November 2, 2012

Week 9 Pac-12 Predictions

Some surprises last weekend. USC lost to Arizona and UW beat Oregon State. Just goes to show you that as much as you think you know how things will never know.

Here is my little BCS overview and Week 9 predictions...

Pac-12 BCS Bowl Situation
Some significant movement this week in the BSC situation...mostly not good for the Pac-12.
  • #4 Oregon won once again, leaving them as one of four undefeated teams at the top of the rankings. But, once again, Oregon was not rewarded for their win while other around them in the ranks were. #1 Alabama won, #2 Florida lost, #3 Kansas State won and #5 Notre Dame won. So, Ducks should be #3 now, right? Wrong, the BSC now has Notre Dame skipping over Oregon to the #3 spot. Meanwhile Kansas State slides up to #2. Sigh. 
  • Meanwhile, USC lost and they now have two league losses. That eliminates them from the National Title hunt and puts their chances for a league title and Rose Bowl berth in serious jeopardy. It also devalues any Oregon win over them a bit...which won't help Oregon's chances of moving up.
  • Oregon State lost for the first time. This will virtually knock them out of any talk of a National Title appearance, but they are still alive for a league title and Rose Bowl with tough games coming up.
Oregon, Oregon State, USC, Arizona, UCLA and ASU all still have a shot at the league title and the Rose Bowl.

Other than that, opportunities for any other Pac-12 team for the league title are slim or none.

Oregon could get to the National Title game if it wins all the rest of its games and finishes 13-0. Or, they may still do that and be "relegated" to the Rose Bowl.

It is also possible that if Oregon wins all its games except the Civil War against Oregon could possibly still appear in a BSC Bowl as an at-large selection with a 12-1 record. Oregon State would probably not in a similar scenario because they'd have two losses if they lose the Civil War.

We'll see what next week brings. Meanwhile, here's what I think will happen this week...

Oregon vs. USC in L.A. The big one. But it got a little less big last weekend with USC choking against Arizona. None the less, Oregon's hopes for a National Title run faces a significant test here. And, both teams have a lot to play for in terms of a shot at the league title and, at worst, the Rose Bowl berth that it would earn them. I think this will be a close game - no blowout. I think both squads present significant challenges against the other. I would not be shocked if USC won this game, but sitting here thinking about all the previous games for both teams this season, I think Oregon is a bit better overall and has more depth. So, I'm going to say Oregon 34-USC 27.

Oregon State vs. ASU in Corvallis. Toss up. ASU has the talent to win, OSU may be feeling deflated after their loss to UW. I just have a feeling ASU is going to come into this one and play well...and win. I say ASU 31-OSU 24.

Stanford vs. Colorado in Boulder. It just doesn't get any easier for Colorado following successive games against USC and Oregon. Now comes Stanford. Stanford 44-CU 17.

UW vs. Cal in Berkley. UW is feeling good. Cal is not. UW does not play well on the road. Cal is at home. Both teams are wildly inconsistent. Hmm. OK, I'll say UW reverts back to its road woes and Cal wins 24-17.

WSU vs. Utah in Salt Lake City. Neither team is impressive or all that fun to watch. I'll say UU 21- WSU 20.

UCLA vs. Arizona in L.A. "Fools Gold Bowl II." Both annual pretenders to the league crown. One will win and extend their fantasy one more week while the other will lose and fulfill their yearly dive to the lower reaches of the standings. I say Arizona finally takes their step forward and wins. UA 35-UCLA 22.

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