Pac-12 Goes Bowling - Comments and Predictions

The Pac-12 bowl matchups are set for the 2012 season. I think the league has a very good shot at running the table in bowl season. The matchups just favor the Pac-12 teams.

Below is who is playing who in which bowls and a few thoughts on each game...

FIESTA BOWL - Oregon vs. Kansas State on Jan. 3

Oh boy. This could be a HIGH scoring game. Oregon's O is a wicked and multi-faceted TD scoring machine on hyper drive. KSU's offense is run by 2013's version of Cam Newton. In situations like this, it's usually the team with the stiffest (gets stops) and most opportunistic (gets turnovers) defense that ends up winning. I say that between the two of these squads, that's Oregon.

Oregon 47-KSU 36


ROSE BOWL - Stanford vs. Wisconsin on Jan. 1 You won't be able to tell which team is which because both have the exact same colors, field similar "big beefy" squads who play smash mouth football, and sport very similar uniform styles - including white helmets with a single red block letter on both sides.

Wisconsin is in their third straight Rose Bowl, having lost to Oregon last year and TCU the year before. I say the third time is the charm and that the big guys in red and white from the Midwest beat the big guys in red and white from the Bay Area.

Wisconsin 28-Stanford 24

SUN BOWL - USC vs. Georgia Tech on Dec. 31
USC had a disappointing season. The Sun Bowl ain't why QB Matt Barkley came back for his senior season. However, they are playing a team in Georgia Tech with a losing record. That's right. The Ramblin' Wreck sports a 6-7 record. They're in this bowl because they petitioned the NCAA on the grounds that they should not "penalized" by being left out of a bowl by reaching but losing the ACC championship game. No matter, USC will win this.

USC 38-GT 14

ALAMO BOWL - Oregon State vs. Texas on Dec. 29 This ought to be a good matchup and worth watching. OSU is much better than expected this season and any time you get a Pac-12 team vs. Texas...seems like it proves entertaining. (Note many Holiday Bowls from previous years.) I think the Beavers win this.

OSU 27 - UT 24

FIGHT HUNGER BOWL - Arizona State vs. Navy on Dec. 29Hmmm. Will anyone outside of the ASU campus and Navy personnel watch this? Probably not...or at least not too many. Will it be a good game? That's less known. ASU might dominate this thing or perhaps it'll be close. I'll say that the Sun Devils do accelerate away from the Midshipmen to win it.

ASU 47-Navy 20

HOLIDAY BOWL - UCLA vs. Baylor on Dec. 27
I'd say that outside of Oregon vs. Kansas State in the Fiesta Bowl, this is the best matchup for Pac-12 teams...likely to deliver a lot of scoring, dynamic athletes and "wow" plays. Like the Fiesta Bowl, the team with the better defense is likely to win, and that team is UCLA.

UCLA 48-Baylor 44

LAS VEGAS BOWL - Washington vs. Boise State on Dec. 22
This is a good matchup too, and I think we'll see both squads out to prove something. It's also interesting that these same two teams play again in their very first game of the 2013 season. If Kellen Moore was still QB at Boise, I'd say they will win. He's not. He's now in the NFL. I think Washington eeks out an entertaining win.

UW 28-BSU 22

Comparing UW and UO Smack Talk

Smack talk is hotting up between Oregon and Washington fans this week...and it's only Tuesday!

I'm seeing a couple primary lines of smack that I think bear a little reality check from both sides.

Husky smack against Oregon

A common line of argument:
"Win a Rose Bowl and then come back and pop off about how good you are."

Implication:
Despite Oregon's success over the past 10-15 years, the Ducks have not won a Rose Bowl and therefore really don't have much to brag about. And further, in that time frame, even the Huskies have won one Rose Bowl (following the 2000 season).

Reality check:

• Since the 1994 season, Oregon has won the Pac-10 title outright four times (1994, 2001, 2009, 2010) and split the crown once (2000). That's four more outright league wins that the Dawgs. Twice the Ducks did go to the Rose Bowl and it is true that in 1994 and 2010 they lost those games.
• HOWEVER, following the Duck's 2001 season crown, the Rose Bowl was the designated BCS National Championship Game. In those days, that meant only the #1 and #2 team in the BCS played in the Rose Bowl. Therefore, if the Pac-10 league winner was not #1 or #2 in the BCS rankings, they would be diverted to another BCS game (Fiesta Bowl). Controversially, the 11-1 Ducks were #4 or #5 in the BCS standings, so they played in the Fiesta Bowl - a game they won by beating a highly ranked Colorado team to finish the season as the consensus #2 team in the nation.
• Also, last year after winning the Pac-10 title, the Ducks were #2 in the BCS standings. So, they got the invite to play in the national title game - which as of a few years ago is now a separate game than the other big bowls. Of course they wanted to play for the title, so they went there instead of the Rose Bowl.

Conclusion:
While the Husky line of argument is technically true, it is completely ignorant as any real fan of the Pac-10 and college football know the Ducks had no say in the fact that they could not play in the Rose Bowl following the 2001 season AND last season they played in the national title game instead of the Rose Bowl.
Smack talk rating:
Really weak stuff - willfully ignorant of what's happened in 2001 and the last 10 years. A real reach.

Duck smack against Washington

A common line of argument:

"The Huskies are a joke and irrelevant to anything important in the Pac-12. We've clobbered you seven times in a row, and unless you forgot...your team went 0-12 in 2008."

Implication:
The UW football program has been so bad over the past 9-10 years that any thought of equity with Oregon is laughable. Start winning some games and then come back and we'll talk.

Reality check:

• It is true that the Huskies have not had a good run between 2002 and 2010, and indeed they have not won a league title in that time frame. It is also true that the Ducks have beaten the Huskies seven season in a row by large margins.
• HOWEVER, UW had a decent year last season, and they won their bowl game against a good Nebraska team. This year, they're bowl eligible already. All told, the Huskies are clearly improving steadily.

Conclusion:
Again, the insults are technically true, but ignorant - in this instance ignorant of recent events. Because the Ducks have beaten  UW so regularly recently, Oregon fans like to dismiss the resurgence going on at UW...and they do so at the risk of being shocked come Saturday evening.

Smack talk rating:
Feeble - UW fans know how bad their team has been. Reminding them of that at a time when their team is actually improving rings particularly hollow.

Big upshot...

• Until UW beats Oregon and/or wins a league title, Washington fans should stop tyring to undermine Oregon's recent success.
• Until Oregon wins a BCS Bowl game again, Duck fans need to temper claims to greatness or reminding the Huskies of their recent woes.