College Football National Championship Game Prediction

#2 Oregon vs. #4 Ohio State
January 12 at 5 p.m. Pacific
AT&T Stadium
Arlington, TX
TV: ESPN

What's At Stake: 
Very simply and most importantly, the winner of the game is the 2014 college football champion. For Oregon, this would be their first national title in football - a huge deal! For Ohio State it would be their 8th, the most recent other one being in 2002. Also big, but 2002 was not that long ago.

Also to consider - particularly if Oregon wins - is that this game will signal a break from the real or perceive "SEC dominance" in college football. Why? A couple reasons:

• First, look how poorly the SEC did in bowl games this season. SEC teams went 7-5 in bowls, and teams from the touted SEC West conference went 0-5 when up against quality non-conference foes. While 7-5 is a winning bowl record for the conference, it's also not great and all the "big time" teams lost. Over-rated. 

• Next, this will be the second year in a row that that the SEC will not have won the title. Yes, last year Auburn was in the game, but they did not win it. And why would the break be more pronounced if Oregon wins? Well, the Big 10 has a long tradition of OSU, Michigan, Penn State and Wisconsin (and to a lesser degree Iowa) being perennial big time, big stage teams that can win it all. The Pac-12? No. Outside of USC, it's been 23 years since any other league team won the national title (Washington) and even then it was a co-title with Miami. So, showing that a non-USC team from the west can win the title will really will show how things have migrated away from the SEC.

OREGON DUCKS
How they got here: The Ducks defeated defending national title holder Florida State in the Rose Bowl on New Years Day by the dominating score of 50-20, securing their place in the title game. Prior to that, they reached the "final four" of college football after reeling off a 12-1 record and a Pac-12 title with the only loss coming early in the season to a ranked Arizona squad and with a lot of injuries that had decimated the Ducks' offensive line.

Since the Rose Bowl: Starting WR Devon Allen injured his knee on the first play of the Rose Bowl and will not play against Ohio State. Also, Oregon announced the uniforms they will wear for the big game and, much to the disappointment of many Oregon fans, there is no green or yellow in them...they're all white with grey/silver accents.

Strengths: A fast, talented, deep and dangerous offense that runs at a rapid tempo to rack up yards and exhaust the opposing defense. And, this offense is operated by Heisman Trophy winning QB Marcus Mariota - equally deadly with his arm and legs. Also, the UO defense has really come on over the past few games to play more physical football and ramped up their already impressive ability to cause and get turnovers.

Weaknesses: It's hard to point out weaknesses in a team that has made it this far, but if I had to say it would be the linebackers. They played well against FSU (Rose Bowl) and Arizona (Pac-12 title game), but there is the potential for them to get pushed around by a big physical offensive line Hell bent on blowing holes open up the middle. Also, the Ducks just don't have a reliable kicker. It's a crap shoot any time UO lines up for a FG or extra point.

Opportunities: Use superior speed and size at RB and WR to hit the Buckeyes on the edges, over the middle and then long. On Defense, get pressure on the young OSU QB with a rush off the edge and force him to make mistakes. You think that's not possible? Ask Jamis Winston how things went in the Rose Bowl.

Players to Watch: #8 QB Mariota, #24 RB Tyner, #9 DE Armstead and any Oregon LB.

What Oregon Fans Say: This ain't the same team OSU played in the Rose Bowl a few years back. We've got more talent, more size, more speed and a much better QB. OSU will not be able to match us for a full 60 minutes. Get ready Buckeyes, it's coming.

Oregon Fans' Secret Fear: A repeat of the 2010 Rose Bowl against OSU in which a) the Buckeyes did indeed "out-physical" Oregon, b) the Ducks made big mistakes (fumbled a sure-fire, take-the-lead TD away for example), c) the Buckeyes QB had the game of his career...all adding up to a 9 point loss for the Ducks. All that, or the game comes down to a field goal.

OHIO STATE BUCKEYES
How they got here: The Buckeyes upset #1 Alabama in the Sugar Bowl by the score of 42-35 on New Years Day to secure their spot in the title game. They made it into the football playoff with a 12-1 record that was notable for the fact that they did a lot of it with their backup QB following their starter going down in pre-season with an injury...and now their third string QB at the helm following his predecessor also going down with an injury. Lets put it this way, the title game will be the Buckeye QB's third career college start.

Since the Rose Bowl: Nothing to report as far as I can tell. No big injuries.

Strengths: Big offensive and defensive lines, a 1,600 yard RB, great depth at WR and (obviously QB) and an opportunistic defense.

Weaknesses: Again, it's difficult to find a true weakness in a final-two team, but I'll go with they are perhaps not as fast and athletic as Oregon's squad and their QB - for all his impressive play in two games - is indeed making this third start and it's against the fastest and biggest turnover-making D he'll have seen.

Opportunities for OSU: Establish a running game up the gut and off tackle given the aggressive nature of the Oregon DEs and the relatively smaller size of Duck LBs. If they can do that, look out. Conversely, if the Ohio State defensive front can get a push up the middle against Oregon's offensive line, they can disrupt Oregon's offense...think about what Auburn did to the Ducks in the 2011 Title Game.

Players to Watch: On offense, watch QB #12 Jones, RB #15 Elliot. On defense, watch the line play...are OSU players pushing the Oregon line backwards? Are they getting sacks?

What Ohio State Fans Say: We're bigger and stronger than Oregon and we will beat them just like we did in the 2010 Rose Bowl. Duck fans, get ready to be run over.

Buckeye Fans' Secret Fear: Oregon "does a Rose Bowl" on the Buckeyes, suddenly turning a close game into a blowout in the third or fourth quarter.

HOW THIS GAME WILL UNFOLD
I think this game is going to go just about like every other game Oregon has played this season. It will be close in the first half with one team ahead by a small amount (10 or less) at the break. OSU will have success on both sides of the ball and Oregon's offense will sputter a bit in the beginning. And then, in the second half, Oregon will assert itself with adjustments. Their offense will score fast and the defense will create a turnover or two. In the end, I think it'll be lower scoring than the Rose or Sugar Bowls, but I do think the Ducks will win pulling away.

SCORE
I say it'll be UO 37-OSU 24.

Pac-12 Week 4 Predictions

Well, I was wrong about Oregon last week. Oh, they won just like a predicted. But where I was wrong was by how much. I thought the big SEC boys from Tennessee would, based on talent alone, keep this one close and Oregon would pull away in the fourth quarter. Turns out it was close only in the first quarter and the Ducks ended up pulling away before halftime on their way to a 59-14 win.

Meanwhile, UW got its second win...this time on the road. Although not too impressive of a victory it still puts them in good position to go 3-0 before they start league play.

And, you have to hand it to ASU and UCLA for taking on Big 10 powers Wisconsin and Nebraska respectively and coming away with wins.

Here's what I think will happen this weekend...

Washington (2-0, 0-0) vs. Idaho State in Seattle. The Huskies will advance to 3-0 with an easy win in this one. UW 41-ISU 9.

WSU (2-1, 1-0) vs. Idaho in Pullman. Conventional wisdom would say any team that can go down to LA and beat USC should have no problem with Idaho at home. But we're talking about the Cougs here, and USC ain't the same this year. So who knows. None the less, I'll say WSU 27 - Idaho 13.

Oregon State (2-1, 1-0) vs. San Diego State in San Diego. The Beavs barely won in OT vs. Utah last week, so I say this is not a "gimmie" for them. Still, I think they'll win. OSU 24 - SDSU 17.

Stanford (2-0, 0-0) vs. Arizona State (2-0, 0-0) in Palo Alto. The only true league game this week. Stanford has played far inferior competition in their first two while ASU has taken out Wisconsin. And this one is in the desert. I call an early upset with the Sun Devils pulling it off. ASU 31-Stanford 28.

UCLA (2-0, 0-0) vs. New Mexico State in Los Angeles. UCLA once again proved it's the real deal this year by going into Nebraska and winning last week. They will have no trouble with NMSU. Bruins 44 - NMSU 13.

Utah (2-1, 0-1) vs. BYU in Provo. In-state battle of the biggest two universities. BYU is pretty good. Utah is not. I'll say BYU wins 27-20.

USC (2-1, 0-1) vs. Utah State in Los Angeles. USC is not up to its normal standards this season and Utah State is no pushover any more. But, I think the Trojan talent will win out. USC 28-USU 17.


Oregon, Cal, Arizona and Colorado all have byes this weekend and will be back in action Sept. 28.

Pac-12 Goes Bowling - Comments and Predictions

The Pac-12 bowl matchups are set for the 2012 season. I think the league has a very good shot at running the table in bowl season. The matchups just favor the Pac-12 teams.

Below is who is playing who in which bowls and a few thoughts on each game...

FIESTA BOWL - Oregon vs. Kansas State on Jan. 3

Oh boy. This could be a HIGH scoring game. Oregon's O is a wicked and multi-faceted TD scoring machine on hyper drive. KSU's offense is run by 2013's version of Cam Newton. In situations like this, it's usually the team with the stiffest (gets stops) and most opportunistic (gets turnovers) defense that ends up winning. I say that between the two of these squads, that's Oregon.

Oregon 47-KSU 36


ROSE BOWL - Stanford vs. Wisconsin on Jan. 1 You won't be able to tell which team is which because both have the exact same colors, field similar "big beefy" squads who play smash mouth football, and sport very similar uniform styles - including white helmets with a single red block letter on both sides.

Wisconsin is in their third straight Rose Bowl, having lost to Oregon last year and TCU the year before. I say the third time is the charm and that the big guys in red and white from the Midwest beat the big guys in red and white from the Bay Area.

Wisconsin 28-Stanford 24

SUN BOWL - USC vs. Georgia Tech on Dec. 31
USC had a disappointing season. The Sun Bowl ain't why QB Matt Barkley came back for his senior season. However, they are playing a team in Georgia Tech with a losing record. That's right. The Ramblin' Wreck sports a 6-7 record. They're in this bowl because they petitioned the NCAA on the grounds that they should not "penalized" by being left out of a bowl by reaching but losing the ACC championship game. No matter, USC will win this.

USC 38-GT 14

ALAMO BOWL - Oregon State vs. Texas on Dec. 29 This ought to be a good matchup and worth watching. OSU is much better than expected this season and any time you get a Pac-12 team vs. Texas...seems like it proves entertaining. (Note many Holiday Bowls from previous years.) I think the Beavers win this.

OSU 27 - UT 24

FIGHT HUNGER BOWL - Arizona State vs. Navy on Dec. 29Hmmm. Will anyone outside of the ASU campus and Navy personnel watch this? Probably not...or at least not too many. Will it be a good game? That's less known. ASU might dominate this thing or perhaps it'll be close. I'll say that the Sun Devils do accelerate away from the Midshipmen to win it.

ASU 47-Navy 20

HOLIDAY BOWL - UCLA vs. Baylor on Dec. 27
I'd say that outside of Oregon vs. Kansas State in the Fiesta Bowl, this is the best matchup for Pac-12 teams...likely to deliver a lot of scoring, dynamic athletes and "wow" plays. Like the Fiesta Bowl, the team with the better defense is likely to win, and that team is UCLA.

UCLA 48-Baylor 44

LAS VEGAS BOWL - Washington vs. Boise State on Dec. 22
This is a good matchup too, and I think we'll see both squads out to prove something. It's also interesting that these same two teams play again in their very first game of the 2013 season. If Kellen Moore was still QB at Boise, I'd say they will win. He's not. He's now in the NFL. I think Washington eeks out an entertaining win.

UW 28-BSU 22

Pac-12 Week 12 Predictions

Well, well, well...what a telling week in the Pac-12. After weeks of half guessing/half assuming we knew which teams were tops in the league, the truth came out finally this past Saturday. Oh how it was reveled...

Oregon lost in OT at home to a very tough Stanford team. We learned that no matter how good Oregon has been up to now, they are NOT as good as first thought and not the first or second best team in the land. Indeed...just like their experience with Ohio State in 2009, Auburn in 2010 and LSU in 2011...Oregon has difficulty with teams that field very big, very strong and fast offensive and defensive lines. Stanford has those. It was the difference in the game. That and, well, Oregon just does not have a place kicker it can trust to make normal field goals in the 35-45 yard range. If they did, they'd have won despite how everything else went. Oh well.

Meanwhile, the myth of USC's return to greatness came crashing down this weekend too as they were finally revealed for the middle of the pack (vs. just unlucky) team through their defeat to UCLA. That's right. UCLA. Sure, USC lost earlier in the season to Stanford and Oregon, but for sure they were going to and should have beat UCLA. They could not.

UCLA has put themselves into position to finally - FINALLY - move out of the "pretender" category and into contedor or champion category with a win vs. Stanford next week and an appearance in the league title game.

And finally, Stanford revealed that they may indeed be the best team in the league. Who would have thought that a few weeks ago when they were a mess and losing to UW?

Pac-12 BCS Situation

Oregon's loss to Stanford virtually eliminates any Pac-12 team from getting into the National Title game. There's a slim, slim chance that if  the now #5 Oregon finishes with just the one loss they may re-enter the running for the #2 spot in that game if others ahead of them lose. But that's really unlikely. Oregon could reach the Rose Bowl if they get some help from UCLA next weekend and the Bruins beat Stanford in LA. That would put the Ducks back into the Pac-12 title game (assuming UO can beat Oregon State next weekend too). Win that and their back in the Rose Bowl. And finally, if Oregon wins against the Beavers but does not make it to the Pac-12 title game because Stanford beats UCLA...the Ducks would still be highly ranked and with only one loss. It could be that one of the other BCS Bowls (Sugar, Fiesta, Orange) pick Oregon to play in their game. Not bad.

UCLA has already won the Pac-12 South. They are in the league title game Nov. 30. Win that and they are in the Rose Bowl. That's their shot at the BCS games.

Stanford can get into that Pac-12 title game if they beat UCLA next Saturday. Do that and then win the title game and they are in the Rose Bowl. That's their shot at the BCS games.

Pac-12 Week 12 Predictions
Games this week are spread across Friday and Saturday. The games Friday will serve as an appetizer for the big, league-defining games on Saturday.

Below, I've listed the Saturday games in order that they will appear on TV in Pacific time. You can see that if you have the day free, you can watch the conference standings finalize right before your very eyes.

Washington vs. WSU in Pullman (Friday). UW is playing well and they are clearly better than WSU. Like the Civil War in Oregon, the Apple Cup usually features weirdness. I think the only weird thing that will happen this year is the WSU will actually hang around in the first half, but in the end UW wins. UW 27-WSU 17.

Arizona vs. ASU in Tempe (Friday). Also-rans jockey for bowl position. Home team wins. ASU 41-UA 38.
Utah vs. Colorado in Boulder (Friday). Like a couple broken down old horses that need to taken back behind a barn and put out of their misery, the Utes and Buffs will wind down their 2012 season in this final game. Utah will win it. UU 27-CU 10.

Oregon vs. Oregon State in Corvallis (Saturday at 12 p.m.). First up on Saturday is the Civil War. Grab your lunch and a cold one and settle in for the first of three critical games. If the Ducks win, they still have a chance at the league title game and/or a BCS game at-large. If the Beavers win, the Ducks are out of the BCS mix completely. Hello Alamo Bowl. The Beavers are playing well and the game is in their stadium. They also have great wide receivers a la USC. But, the Ducks are coming off their one loss and should be angry and looking for redemption. And hey, they are still Oregon. I'm going to say that Oregon rebounds and pulls out a win 34-28.

Stanford vs. UCLA in L.A. (Saturday at 3:30 p.m.) OK, you just watched the Ducks win the Civil War (that's what I predicted afer all, right?), and now you're ready to see if Stanford can kill the Ducks chances for the league title and grab the glory for themselves with a win. Time to break out the mid-afternoon snacks.With the South already sewn up, will UCLA "show up" or roll over? Either way, I think Stanford is the better team and will be motivated to nail down their appearance in the Pac-12 title game. They win. Stanford 28-UCLA 21.   If things go the way I've predicted here, you'll then have a Stanford vs. UCLA re-match in Palo Alto the following weekend to determine the Pac-12 champ. The winner would go to the Rose Bowl. Oregon would then just have to wait a couple weeks to see if one of the other BCS bowl games picks them...and if they don't, again, hello Alamo Bowl.

USC vs. Notre Dame in L.A. (Saturday at 5 p.m.) And then finally, as the Stanford/UCLA game enters it's later stages, you can start to check in on this one to see if Notre Dame can stay undefeated and confirm their participation in the National Championship game or if they finally falter to a ticked off USC squad. I would have said "this is the game where ND loses." But, given how poorly USC has played recently, I now think the "Domers" will win this game. I say ND 22-USC 14.

NOTE: Cal has finished its season. They clocked in at 3-9 overall and 2-7 in league play. No bowl. See you in 2013.

Week 10 Pac-12 Predictions

Well, well, well...things are starting to be clarified in the Pac-12 and nationally. Big wins by Oregon and Oregon State this week really show them off to be - along with USC - the class of the league.

Meanwhile, Notre Dame was expossed a bit as a pretender by barely beating a weak Pitt team at home in tripple overtime...and they paid the price for that by dropping in the national rankings behind Oregon.

Below is my Pac-12 BCS update and predictions for next week's games...

Pac-12 BCS Situation
Oregon is in the driver seat. Win out and they'll very likely be in the title game vs. either Alabama or Kansas State. And hey, even if they "only" win the Pac-12 title, they'll be in the Rose Bowl.

Oregon State is looking pretty good for a BCS game too. If they win out and win the league title game, that will mean they beat Oregon and the South champ. If that happens, the Beavers would at minimum be in the Rose Bowl. It's also possible that the Beavers win all the rest of their games except Oregon, finish at 11-1 and get picked up for BCS game anyway - Rose bieng the likely one.

USC, ASU and UCLA all have shots at winning the South and appearing in the Pac-12 title game...and hence, in theory, a shot at the Rose Bowl.

What I think will happen this week...

Oregon vs. Cal in Berkley. At Cal is usually a tough one for Oregon. Not this year. Yes, it's the road and yes perhaps the Ducks are suseptable to the letdown after beating USC. But I'm going to say that Oregon is just too good to lose to a depleated and demotivated Cal. Ain't going to happen. UO 31- Cal 21.

Washington vs. Utah in Seattle. UW wins this one at home to get their third in a row and become bowl eligible. I say UW 24-UU 13.

Washington State vs. UCLA in Pullman. Demotivated WSU vs. schizophrenic UCLA. The Bruins are the better team and I think they'll win. UCLA 28-WSU 17.

Oregon State vs. Stanford at Palo Alto. Hmmm. Interesting game here. I'd like to think Stanford would take care of business at home, but the Beavers are playing well. I say OSU 26-Stanford 21.

USC vs. ASU in L.A. USC has lost two in a row. But they're still USC while ASU is, well, still ASU. Talent kills hype in this one. USC 41-ASU 24.

Arizona vs. Colorado in Tucson. Arizona blew the momentum gained by beating USC by not showing up vs. UCLA last weekend and losing big. But, they're still better than Colorado and will win. UA 31-CU 9.

Pac-12 Week 7 Predictions

Well, we learned a few things last weekend in Pac-12 play. Among them:

1) Oregon is for sure the class of the league right now. Latest evidence: an absolute curb stomp of UW for the ninth year in a row. There seems to be a bunch of teams that could finish in second place, but nobody is matching the offensive AND defensive firepower of the Ducks.

2) Oregon State, while still a threat, may not be all they are cracked up to be. Latest evidence: struggling at home to be beat WSU.

3) UCLA is proving once again they are the college football equivalent of "fools gold." Latest evidence: losing to Cal.

4) Stanford is a Jeckle and Hyde squad. Latest evidence: after losing to UW in a low scoring affair two weeks ago, they follow up with a high scoring OT win vs. Arizona.

Looking forward to this coming week's games...

Washington vs. USC in Seattle. What to think? UW rebounds at home against a now suspect USC squad? Or, USC is USC and the come in a beat the Dawgs soundly. I'll go with the latter...USC 35-UW 17.

Oregon State vs. BYU in Provo. I'll go with the Beavers until proven otherwise. I will say this though, BYU is probably better than the WSU and UCLA teams OSU has beaten so far. It would not shock me if they lost this one, but I'll go OSU 24-BYU21.

WSU vs. Cal in Pullman. Cougs are done. Cal is coming off a win and no doubt look at this one as a way to get further back on track. I say they do...Cal 28-WSU 19.

Stanford vs. Notre Dame at ND. Could be a very good game. ND is over-rated, and Stanford is - as mentioned - different each week. I'll say they show up and upset ND. Stanford 28-ND 17.

ASU vs. Colorado in Boulder. ASU big. Sun Devils 44-CU 10.

UCLA vs. Utah in LA. A battle of pretenders. UCLA is at home and does have some weapons, so I'll pick them...UCLA 37 - Utah 21.




NOT PLAYING: Oregon, Arizona

Pac-12 Week 6 Predictions

Another good week in the Pac-12 just past. What we learned, at least from a Pac-12 North perspective...

Oregon is still looking good, undefeated and #2 in the land following their 3 TD+ win over WSU. But, but one wonders how they will fare against the likes of USC, Stanford and ASU...those teams ain't WSU.

Washington finally grew a pair on defense. They manned up and really played well against the big, straight ahead run game of Stanford...and won. However, most teams UW will play from here on out have far, far more diverse offenses, more speed and better QBs. So, live it up for now Dawg fans.

WSU is done. Well, in terms of a winning season and a bowl. They just don't have it folks. They might pick up a few wins along the way, but based on last week vs. Colorado (worst team in the league) and this week vs. Oregon (best team in the league), it's clear to me that the Cougs ain't going anywhere this season.

OSU is starting to look like a real power broker in the race for the Pac-12 North and overall Pac-12 title. Civil War should be fun!

OK, looking forward...

Oregon vs. Washington in Eugene. The Ducks have beaten the Dawgs eight seasons in a row, by a lot. My feeling is that this year, the Ducks will win again...and maybe even by 2-3 TDs...but it will be a close game into the fourth quarter. I will say UO 34-UW 21.

WSU vs. Oregon State in Corvallis. Is Oregon State the real deal or just off to a hot start...and destined to fall to earth? We will not find out this week becuase WSU is not good. Beavers win at home 29-13.

Stanford vs. Arizona at Palo Alto. Should be a good game with both squads looking to bounce back after unexpected losses. I'll give it to the home team. Stanford 24-UA 17.

Cal vs. UCLA at Berkley. I think UCLA's season continues on an unexpected positive trajectory and Cal's woes continue. Bruins 34-Bears 13.

Arizona State vs. Colorado in Boulder. Sun Devils big. ASU 44-CU 10.

USC vs. Utah in Salt Lake City. Trojans big. USC 38-Utah 9.

Pac-12 Week 2 Predictions

Last week I was mostly right in my predictions for Pac-12 football games. Cal lost to Nevada at home...so I got that one wrong. Also, Oregon State's game with the mighty Nichols State down in Louisiana was postponed because of Hurricane Isaac...the team couldn't get to Corvallis for the game.

For the most part, Week 2 offers up more "pre-season" games for Pac-12 squads...with the exceptions of UCLA vs. Nebraska, UA vs. OK State and ASU vs. Illinois.

Here is what I think will happen...

Oregon vs. Fresno State in Eugene. Ducks dominate again...win 41-20 with the Fresno 20 coming in the second half or late in the game when the UO is playing its second and third string.

Washington vs. LSU in Baton Rouge. UW could only score 14 points on offense against San Diego State in their opener last week. They'll have to do MUCH better vs. LSU to have a chance, but that won't happen and LSU will win by the score of 42-10.

Washington State vs. Eastern Washington. An easy win for WSU, right? No, I don't think so. I do think they'll win however by the score of 21-16.

Arizona vs. Oklahoma State in Tucson. Last year the Cowboys beat up on Arizona in Stillwater. I think they will win again even those this game is at home for the Wildcats. OK State 31-14 over Arizona.

Illinois vs. ASU in Tempe. Not sure on this one. I'll go with Illinois in a close one...21-20.

USC vs. Syracuse in New Jersey. Not even close...USC 44-10 over the Orangemen.

UCLA vs. Nebraska in LA. UCLA beat Rice and Nebraska defeated Southern Miss in a pair of tune-up games last week. Home field gives the Bruins some hope, but again with UCLA...until I actually see it on the field of play vs. a good team, I won't believe the annual hype around the squad from Westwood. Nebraska 36-17.

Cal vs. Southern Utah at Berkley. Hmmm. I was pretty sure Cal would beat Nevada at home last week. I was wrong. None the less, I think they'll be ready to go and beat Southern Utah. I say they get on track to the tune of a 28-10 win.

Stanford vs. Duke in Palo Alto. Stanford had a trickier time than I thought with San Jose State last week, but - like Cal - I think they'll be able to defeat a weaker opponent this week and win 24-6.

Oregon State vs. Wisconsin in Corvallis. OSU is not as bad as people think, and the Badgers are not as good as people think with Russell Wilson now in the NFL. But, "the other UW" wins comfortably by the score of 27-13.

Colorado vs. Sacramento State in Boulder. CU is not a good team. Sac State is worse...they lost big to New Mexico State last week. Buffs get the win, 21-9.

Utah vs. Utah State in Logan, Utah. A few years ago this would be a laugher with everyone assuming the Utes would win. But, State has come a long ways...just not far enough to win vs. an improving Utah team. Utes 29-13 victors.

Pac-12 Football Season Preview & Predictions

Well, well, well. It's that time of year again. Yes indeedee-deed. The college football season is upon us.

Before all the action starts tomorrow, below are my thoughts on the Pac-12 and how things will shake out.

PAC-12 NORTH
Setting aside USC, this is where the power lies in the league. Stanford, Oregon, Cal, an improving UW and perhaps a resurgent WSU make this a more difficult division to win than the South.

Here's how I think things will look at the end of the regular season:

1. Oregon - A very good D, skill positions loaded, soild O line, exciting new QB options, key games against UW and Stanford at home all combine to get the Ducks over the hump to win the North. I'm thinking a loss or two along the way somewhere (probably to USC on the road), but a very good season for the Quackers that sees them win the North.
2. Stanford - Andrew Luck is gone, but the cupboard is not bare in Palo Alto. None the less, I do think they will see a bit of a drop and perhaps lose two league games. But, this team will be good and can beat anyone in the Pac-12.
3. Cal - OK, I'll cop to it...I don't know much about this year's Cal team. But, I do know that they have consistently played at the "top of middle" of the league for many years running now. The last couple seasons saw them win early only to fade big down the stretch...yet still get to a bowl. I'll say they do the same this season.
4. Washington- Yes, the Dawgs are improving. Yes, their D is going to get better - how could it not? Yes, Keith Price is a dangerous QB when healthy. But no, this is not "the year" that the UW breaks through to challenge for the division or league title. They will most likely lose games to Oregon, Stanford, USC and LSU. That would be four losses right there. Throw in a road trip to Cal and the always unpredictable Apple Cup vs. WSU in Pullman this year and...well, could be another 6-6 or even 5-6 season. We'll see.
5. WSU - The arrival of Mike Leach and his system will improve this team so that they are challenging for a six win (and therefore bowl eligible) season. But it won't catapult them to the top of the division.
6. OS - A bit of a wild card here as the Beavs are not without talent. But, I think they're due to slip down a notch this season.

PAC-12 SOUTH
You'd think this would be the "class" off the league with programs like USC, UCLA, Arizona and Colorado. But no, only USC has a chance to win the division and league from among this motley crew.

1. USC - USC is "back" after its NCAA sanctions and this will be a very good squad. In particular, they have a high quality and experienced QB in his senior season. Throw in all the talent you would expect on their Defense and O line and...well, look out. Oh, and I think these Trojans are going to be looking for redemption.
2. Utah - Yes, I am picking the Utes to improve and finish second in the South. Despite their lame start last season as part of the Pac-12, they finished strong...despite having injuries to key players. So, I think they'll represent this coming season.
3. UA - Not much to say. New coach Rich Rod will probably bring new energy and motivation for the Cats, but they lose some talent and are breaking in a new QB. So, I'm thinking middle of the pack for them.
4. UCLA - Another build up of "this is the year" followed by let down. I've said it before and I'll say it again: Until UCLA actually breaks that pattern, I won't believe it.
5. ASU - Same old story...why isn't this team dominating the league? Poor coaching, hit and miss recruiting, players believing their own hype. The list goes on and on. Not a horrible team, but I don't think they improve this season with a new coach and a new QB. Like UCLA, I'll only believe their ascendancy when it actually happens.
6. Colorado - I don't see the Buffs crawling out of the basement this season. I'd like to see it, but I don't think it'll happen.

PAC-12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
As a reminder, the league champion is determined by a game matching the winner of the North division with the winner of the South division. The location of the game is the home field of the school with the best overall conference record. The winner of the Championship Game earns the automatic Pac-12 bid into the BCS. Typically this means the winner goes to the Rose Bowl. If the winner is in the running for the BCS Title Game, it could mean the winner goes to that game instead. In any case, the stakes are high.

USC vs. Oregon in Los Angeles - I think USC will have beaten UO earlier in the season OR USC will have won more games overall...or both. In any case, USC will have a better overall record. Might be by just one game, but better. So, I say this game will be played in Los Angeles.

Who will win? My heart says Ducks baby! My mind says USC will win it. Home field, tallent, motivation after being on probation, youth at Oregon's QB position...all will combine in USC favor.

And the result from that could take many forms. It could be that USC is in the running for the BCS National Title Game, so they could go there. At worst, they would go to the Rose Bowl. Oregon...depending on their record...might be in the running for a BCS game too even if they lose to USC, but more likely they'd end up in a "second tier" bowl following a loss to the Trojans.

Pac-12 Week Ten Re-Caps

Oregon...you beat Washington 34-17 in Seattle. That's eight years straight over the Huskies. Highlights were an aggressive and sturdy D, re-established run game with LaMicahel and great special teams. Your big test is next week against Stanford. Better clean up those dropped passes and propensity for untimely penalties. Those will be killers against The Trees.

UW...you lost to Oregon at home. This game can finally put into perspective where you are at in terms of development and improvement. The good news is, you are definitely better than last year with a bowl already sewn up, and signs point to more improvement next year. The bad news is, having beat six so-so to poor teams and lost decisively to three good teams...you are what you are: a middle tier, not top 25 team at this point.

Stanford...you beat Oregon State (badly) on the road in Corvallis. This is as expected. It's also yet another win against a weak opponent for you. Quite literally, your first challenge this season is next week vs. Oregon. Better get ready for speed-a-palloza and hope your big hosses don't wear out in the third or fourth quarter like last year. Yes, Luck is awesome, but he don't play defense or special teams.

Oregon State...you lost to Stanford at home. Nobody expected you to win this one, so it's not a surprise. Your fate as a bottom feeder this year is cemented. However, you will have the chance to make it all good with a win vs. Oregon at the end of the season that would deprive the Ducks of something significant. I know that sounds tough, but you always seem to rise to the occasion for that game. Can you this year?

WSU...you lost to Cal on the road in Berkley. Another week, another loss. It doesn't get any easier next week against ASU.

Cal...you beat WSU at home. Your season is starting to turn around a bit. Getting close to bowl eligibility with games still remaining against OSU, Stanford and ASU. You might have a shot at two of those.

UCLA...what? The dismal spiral into league irrelevance took a turn for the better for you this week with a one point win against a good ASU team. Can you actually claw your way into winning the southern division?

ASU...what? You lost to UCLA. Really? Wow.

Utah...you beat Arizona at home for your second league win. You're on a slight upswing with two wins in a row and sitting at five wins overall. With games against UCLA, OSU and Colorado remaining you may win as many as eight this season...something nobody would have thought about three weeks ago.

Arizona...you lost to Utah. Other than the beat down of UCLA a couple weeks ago, your season is not going well. Play to improve for next season and get up for your game against rival ASU at the end of this season.

USC...you killed Colorado. No surprises here. Not much to say.

Colorado...you lost to USC. Same comment as above.

Pac-10 Football 2010 Straight Ahead - Season Picks

I'm getting excited for the upcoming college football season! Most schools start their schedules this weekend.

Of course at this time of the year hope springs eternal and the talk is all about what's going to happen...predicting.

In thinking about the Pac-10 and which teams might do what this season, I realized that over the past 6-7 seasons, each Pac-10 football team has performed in remarkably similar fashion over that period of time. For example and in no particular order:

• USC - dominates wire-to-wire
• OSU - starts slow but finishes strong
• Cal - starts strong but fades in the second half of the season
• Oregon - erratic, can beat anyone but can lose to anyone too
• UW - not very good beginning to end of the season
• WSU - lose virtually every game
• ASU - always picked to be a contender, never delivers
• UCLA - see ASU comment
• UA - See ASU comment (except for last season)
• Stanford - scrappy team making headway

And guess what? I bet this is exactly what happens again this year...with two exceptions. Those are: 1) I doubt USC will dominate everyone and even if they do it does not matter as they are not eligible to win the conference due to NCAA penalties, 2) I think UW will be better and could win as many as eight games.

Past that, I think we're going to see these programs perform similar to their recent track record:

• Oregon may go 11-1 and win the league going away, or they could go 7-5 (or worse).
• OSU could be a contender if they start even a game or two faster than most seasons.
• Inversely, Cal could contend if they don't fade as early as in recent seasons.
• ASU, UCLA and UA...well, I just won't believe they're Pac-10 title contenders until I actually see it happen. More likely they will be the "middle of the pack."

All that said, here is my prediction for the upcoming Pac-10 season:

1. Oregon - stars align enough that they come out on top, Darron Thomas performs well at QB, BSC bowl
2. USC - good team does well, but cannot play post season
3. OSU - similar story to last season...solid team, start a bit slow, finish very strong, bowl
4. Stanford - the scrappy team keeps scrapping and getting better, very good QB helps, bowl
5. UW - Locker finally is consistent and the team surprises, wins enough to get to a bowl
6. UA - comedown from last year and back to underachieving, might make a bowl 
7. Cal - late season fade comes earlier this season, no bowl
8. UCLA - don't believe the hype
9. ASU - sorry, not this year either
10. WSU - sad but true, may lose 9 or more games

There. Those are my picks. I did them in the moment here just before the season starts, and it's eerie how similar they are to my thoughts following spring practices earlier this year. At least I'm consistent.

In the end, I think trends and tendencies from the past will continue for the most part this season.

For those of you who say sure Marc, you  picked Oregon to win it because that's your school, I say you are correct in part...but the other part is that I honestly challenge you at this stage of the year to tell me there is a better team Pac-10 team front-to-back, O and D than the Ducks. Another team might end up being better, sure, but as of now I don't see one better as we kick off the season. Hey, I know Oregon will eventually slide...all programs do and football is cyclical...but I don't think it'll be in 2010.

Here's to an entertaining season.