Pac-12 Football Season Preview & Predictions

Well, well, well. It's that time of year again. Yes indeedee-deed. The college football season is upon us.

Before all the action starts tomorrow, below are my thoughts on the Pac-12 and how things will shake out.

PAC-12 NORTH
Setting aside USC, this is where the power lies in the league. Stanford, Oregon, Cal, an improving UW and perhaps a resurgent WSU make this a more difficult division to win than the South.

Here's how I think things will look at the end of the regular season:

1. Oregon - A very good D, skill positions loaded, soild O line, exciting new QB options, key games against UW and Stanford at home all combine to get the Ducks over the hump to win the North. I'm thinking a loss or two along the way somewhere (probably to USC on the road), but a very good season for the Quackers that sees them win the North.
2. Stanford - Andrew Luck is gone, but the cupboard is not bare in Palo Alto. None the less, I do think they will see a bit of a drop and perhaps lose two league games. But, this team will be good and can beat anyone in the Pac-12.
3. Cal - OK, I'll cop to it...I don't know much about this year's Cal team. But, I do know that they have consistently played at the "top of middle" of the league for many years running now. The last couple seasons saw them win early only to fade big down the stretch...yet still get to a bowl. I'll say they do the same this season.
4. Washington- Yes, the Dawgs are improving. Yes, their D is going to get better - how could it not? Yes, Keith Price is a dangerous QB when healthy. But no, this is not "the year" that the UW breaks through to challenge for the division or league title. They will most likely lose games to Oregon, Stanford, USC and LSU. That would be four losses right there. Throw in a road trip to Cal and the always unpredictable Apple Cup vs. WSU in Pullman this year and...well, could be another 6-6 or even 5-6 season. We'll see.
5. WSU - The arrival of Mike Leach and his system will improve this team so that they are challenging for a six win (and therefore bowl eligible) season. But it won't catapult them to the top of the division.
6. OS - A bit of a wild card here as the Beavs are not without talent. But, I think they're due to slip down a notch this season.

PAC-12 SOUTH
You'd think this would be the "class" off the league with programs like USC, UCLA, Arizona and Colorado. But no, only USC has a chance to win the division and league from among this motley crew.

1. USC - USC is "back" after its NCAA sanctions and this will be a very good squad. In particular, they have a high quality and experienced QB in his senior season. Throw in all the talent you would expect on their Defense and O line and...well, look out. Oh, and I think these Trojans are going to be looking for redemption.
2. Utah - Yes, I am picking the Utes to improve and finish second in the South. Despite their lame start last season as part of the Pac-12, they finished strong...despite having injuries to key players. So, I think they'll represent this coming season.
3. UA - Not much to say. New coach Rich Rod will probably bring new energy and motivation for the Cats, but they lose some talent and are breaking in a new QB. So, I'm thinking middle of the pack for them.
4. UCLA - Another build up of "this is the year" followed by let down. I've said it before and I'll say it again: Until UCLA actually breaks that pattern, I won't believe it.
5. ASU - Same old story...why isn't this team dominating the league? Poor coaching, hit and miss recruiting, players believing their own hype. The list goes on and on. Not a horrible team, but I don't think they improve this season with a new coach and a new QB. Like UCLA, I'll only believe their ascendancy when it actually happens.
6. Colorado - I don't see the Buffs crawling out of the basement this season. I'd like to see it, but I don't think it'll happen.

PAC-12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
As a reminder, the league champion is determined by a game matching the winner of the North division with the winner of the South division. The location of the game is the home field of the school with the best overall conference record. The winner of the Championship Game earns the automatic Pac-12 bid into the BCS. Typically this means the winner goes to the Rose Bowl. If the winner is in the running for the BCS Title Game, it could mean the winner goes to that game instead. In any case, the stakes are high.

USC vs. Oregon in Los Angeles - I think USC will have beaten UO earlier in the season OR USC will have won more games overall...or both. In any case, USC will have a better overall record. Might be by just one game, but better. So, I say this game will be played in Los Angeles.

Who will win? My heart says Ducks baby! My mind says USC will win it. Home field, tallent, motivation after being on probation, youth at Oregon's QB position...all will combine in USC favor.

And the result from that could take many forms. It could be that USC is in the running for the BCS National Title Game, so they could go there. At worst, they would go to the Rose Bowl. Oregon...depending on their record...might be in the running for a BCS game too even if they lose to USC, but more likely they'd end up in a "second tier" bowl following a loss to the Trojans.

Last Football Post For Some Time - 2010 Season Ending Thoughts

I've had fun writing about the 2010 college football season, with a special focus on the Pac-10 and my Ducks. But, like the Ducks' narrow defeat in the big game last Monday and indeed the Pac-10 itself (it becomes the Pac-12 next season), all good things must come to an end. So, this will be my last football related post for quite a while.

First, for anyone - like, maybe all two or three of you! - who tuned in and read my stuff, thanks. I hope I offered some insights and a little humor.

Next, here's my quick re-cap of the season...

• Ducks - I am very proud of their season and how the dominated virtually every team they played during the regular season, the fact that they won the Pac-10 for the second year in a row and that they represented so well in the big BCS championship game - narrowly losing on the last play of the game to a GREAT Auburn team. And, they finished #3 in the rankings. I admit that just after the game I was crushed that they lost. Crushed. Knowing how hard it is to get to that game, and being so close to pulling off "the big one"...only not to do so and have crazy stuff contribute to the outcome (was that guy's wrist down? And, sure looked like Harris picked Newton but they didn't give it to him) was pretty hard to take. Anyway, it stings worse when its your school. But, with a week to ponder it now, hey, the Ducks did great all year long...including that game. Very proud. What a wonderful season. They'll be loaded again in 2011.
• UW - nice recovery to their season and bowl win. Husky fans have reason to be optimistic. They will need to replace at QB, so that could be a mitigating factor to winning more than 6 games next season, but hey...going in the right direction.
• Stanford - look out. These guys will challenge for the league title or more next season.
• Rest of the Pac-10 - nobody else really had a season to "write home about," but each team offered some bright spots - even WSU. No doubt next pre-season we'll see predictions of ASU or UCLA finally rising to the top of the league as we do every year.

So that's it folks. With the small exception of some spring practices, college football really doesn't focus in until August - a good eight months from now. Not sure if I'll repeat my week-by-week posts next season, do something different or just give all you people a break and not do any of it.

Football Grades - 2009 Season

With the football season now officially over for the teams I follow, I've given each a grade and a brief statement on what next year may bring.

Oregon Ducks....GRADE: A-
The Duckies had a very good season in which they achieved more than they were expected to. If you remember back to last summer, USC was tabbed as the favorite to win the Pac-10 with any combination of Cal, ASU or even Arizona cited as contenders to the throne and the following spots in the pecking order. It was generally presumed that Oregon had too much to replace on the offensive line and key spots on defense, as well as a rookie head coach, to mount a serious challenge.

And what did Oregon go out and do? They went 8-1 in the conference, beating all conference teams except Stanford. Throw in a couple nice non-conference wins vs. a ranked Utah team and Purdue and that's very solid business.

Any year you win the league and get to the Rose Bowl is a "A" season for sure. I deduct some from the grade for a) the really poor showing in the first game vs. Boise State and b) not winning the Rose Bowl.

Outlook for next season: Very good. I truly believe the Ducks will be in serious contention to repeat as Pac-10 champion. I think another 10 win season is very possible.

Iowa Hawkeyes...GRADE: A
Iowa had a great and unexpected season and were one game away from winning the Big 10. They lost for the first time late in the season when their starting QB went down with an injury vs. Northwestern and then lost the next week vs. Ohio State in a close one despite not having their top QB in the game. Ironically, if they had somehow won one of those games they would have lined up against my Ducks in the Rose Bowl. While this would have presented some conflicts for me considering my allegiance to Iowa (I was born at the university, parents graduated from there) - in hindsight - I think the Hawkeyes would have been a MUCH better match up for the Ducks than Ohio State proved to be. Oh, the irony.

The Hawkeyes earn a straight "A" for overachieving to go 10-2 in the season, reaching the Orange Bowl and then winning it as the underdog vs. Georgia Tech. Iowa does not earn an A+ because they did lose those two league games and, therefore, did not win the Big 10. What could have been deducts a little.

Outlook for next season: Good. Perhaps not Big-10 champs, but 8-9 wins and top three in the league is likely.


Washington Huskies...GRADE: B-
While I am not a Husky fan (how could I be as an Oregon alum), I do keep up on their progress as a longtime Seattle resident and Pac-10 fan. And, you know, it's good to know how good - or bad - one of your arch rivals is.

Winning only five games would not normally earn a "B" grade of any kind, but going from zero wins in 2008 to five in 2009 is a very good progress - especially when you consider the UW were in position and could have won at least two more games (Notre Dame and ASU). So, give the a "B" for upping their game significantly. Deduct points for finding ways to lose two very close ones and then not even showing up to their game against Oregon State.

Outlook for next season: A lot to look forward to for Dawg fans. I predict seven wins (but one of them will not be vs. the Ducks) and a bowl game.


Seattle Seahawks...GRADE: D
The Seahawks were horrible. They appeared unprepared and unmotivated and only beat teams just as bad as they were. The only reason I don't give them a straight out "F" is that they actually won more games this season (5) than last (4). The team is broke and an overall re-building is in order.

Outlook for next season: More of the same. I won't believe a turnaround until I actually see it. I predict 4-6 wins and missing the playoffs again.

And now, it's on to Pac-10 basketball and the Winter Olympics, and then the World Cup early this summer. And after that? Well, before you know it, it'll be football season again!