Sunday, April 20, 2008

Is the Dem PA primary the key to the entire presidential election?

This isn’t a political blog per se, but...

Could the PA Democratic primary this week literally decide the entire presidential election? Will a Tuesday in April be the key date in deciding who will be our next president and not Election Day in November?

If Obama wins the PA primary by any margin, it’s definitely over in my book. Clinton probably gets out and he goes on to sew up the nomination and can quickly turn his attention to battling McCain. In my opinion, he would likely succeed…being elected President.

If Hillary wins by a lot (say, 15-20 percentage points or more), will she then become the unstoppable candidate who could also turn focus to McCain for a successful campaign to election? Would Obama become the faded star without momentum? Both seem likely in my opinion...especially with the corporate media dying to tell that dramatic of a "comback" story.

But, as is most likely I think, what if Hillary wins PA by only a few percentage points?

Obama would retain his delegate and vote lead. Clinton obviously would continue on presumably to do as well as she can and then try for superdelegate support and the Florida and Michigan delegates to be seated (in her favor, of course). But, this will mean a long, drawn out campaign of bickering, division and damage among the Dems (and a “pass” for McCain) for so long that, really, you get this guy elected President in November....

So, to me, it kinda comes down to how things go in PA this week.

What do you think? Do you think there is a scenario in which Barack and Hill battle it out down to the very last primary and into the convention…but still pull the rabbit out of the hat and defeat McCain?

My gut tells me this is not likely to happen…and I’m scared what that means for us all. I hope I'm wrong.

NOTE: The pictures in this post were NOT taken by me.

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