Sunday, November 2, 2008

Gas Prices and the Election Revisited

On September 7, I predicted that the price of a gallon of gas would fall during the election season and leading up to election day.

Lets see how I did.

My original post is here. In it I predicted the price of gas would magically fall more than 40 cents a gallon to about $3.45/gallon in Seattle where I live by the election.

Well, I couldn't have been more wrong.

Not because the price of gas didn't fall. No, I was wrong in that the price fell so much more than I ever thought it would. As of today, gas in Seattle costs $2.69/gallon. Wow! More than a full dollar a gallon in less than eight weeks.

Mind you, the current price is still higher than it was a couple years ago. I certainly can't figure all the ins-and-outs and reasons why the oil market works the way it does. And I know there are wars, economic issues, OPEC decisions on production, weather, etc. that play into it all. But, I'm also not blind. It seems so obvious that gas prices - always going up over the long term trend - drop just before elections and at other opportune times. It just seems clear to me that it's not a coincidence - something else is going on.

In that spirit, my next prediction...the price of a gallon of gas will be $3.00 or higher by the time the next president is sworn in this coming January. If it's Obama...look for $3.40 or higher.

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