Four years ago I wrote about how gas prices would magically come down during the Presidential election cycle. You can see my posts HERE and HERE.
The premise of my posts at the time was that oil companies and the energy sector of our economy has enjoyed such spectacular and historical profits with Republicans in the White House that they would be willing to take a hit for a few months to help ease one very painful economic issue that most Americans ascribe to "the economy"...and therefore, in theory, lessen their likelihood to turn out to vote or to vote for Obama on the need for a better economy and more likely to be open to vote for McCain.
Based on my personal experience at my local gas pumps that year, I can say that I was right in my prediction about prices.
For the exact same reasons, I now predict that gas prices will rise steadily over the next several months and into prime time election season. To be clear...the energy sector wants a Republican as president for the major deregulation and massive tax breaks they believe a conservative will bring to their industry. Therefore, it benefits them for the electorate to have a reason to be mad at the Democratic incumbent and more likely to vote for the Republican alternative. Gas prices are such an ever day reality in virtually every Americans' life that a steady or steep rise would really hurt. So, I think oil companies will find ways to raise prices during this election season.
Sure, you'll hear about the threat of a nuclear Iran, reduced refining capacity in the U.S. and general screwed up global economy as reasons. And yes, some of those things do have an impact on gas prices here in the U.S. But think about this: four years ago we were in "hot" wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and in the absolute depths of the economic crises...and prices at the pump when down!
No, what you need to do is compare all that international and infrastrcuture reasoning with the motivation of US energy companies to sustain record profit margins on a quarterly basis...and my opinion is you see the primary reason for gas prices going up now. It's a long term strategic play by big oil to do what they can to maximize the chances of a Republican winning the presidency...and more seats in Congress if possible.
So to close, gas prices at the local Shell station near my house in the Seattle area at $4.09 per gallon today, March 13, 2012. I'll check back with you in the early summer and then October to see where we're at and if I'm correct on my prediction.
Showing posts with label oil. Show all posts
Showing posts with label oil. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Friday, June 10, 2011
Why the U.S. Cares About Yemen
Ever wonder why we here in the U.S. should care about Yemen?
You know, Yemen? Yeah, me too...never would have thought about the place until recently.
But here are three things to consider in order to get to the answer of why our country cares about Yemen and uses our military to intervene there...
That's right. Yemen sits there at the opening of the Red Sea...a major waterway up to the Suez Canal, the Mediterranean and onto the Atlantic. Or, going the other direction, it sits there right at the gap leading from the Red Sea into the Indian Ocean and Pacific. Either way you are shipping oil by ship, you're more than likely to need to go through that gap. Control that gap, you control the flow of oil shipping. You don't control that gap because of a rouge regime or anarchy? Well, could be problems gassing up you Escalade.
You know, Yemen? Yeah, me too...never would have thought about the place until recently.
But here are three things to consider in order to get to the answer of why our country cares about Yemen and uses our military to intervene there...
- First, think about how dependent on oil our economy is, and how much of that oil comes from the Middle East.
- Second, think about how that oil gets from the middle east (by ship) and where it has to go to get to us.
- Then third, look at this map...
That's right. Yemen sits there at the opening of the Red Sea...a major waterway up to the Suez Canal, the Mediterranean and onto the Atlantic. Or, going the other direction, it sits there right at the gap leading from the Red Sea into the Indian Ocean and Pacific. Either way you are shipping oil by ship, you're more than likely to need to go through that gap. Control that gap, you control the flow of oil shipping. You don't control that gap because of a rouge regime or anarchy? Well, could be problems gassing up you Escalade.
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Big Oil Is The Problem - Not The Solution
Let me get this straight...
The answer is...it's not.
The longer answer is...it's not right and the fact that these oil company subsidies were created in the first place, have been allowed to continue and now won't be repealed are all testament to who runs the government. Big Oil and their cousins Big Business and Wall Street run it. And guess what? Leaders in those sectors are more interested in massive quarterly profit margins to boost the value of the stock they hold and so they can earn big bonuses than they are in long term energy solutions that will help the economy overall.
With billions of dollars in profit coming in to oil companies on a quarterly basis for a sustained period of time, a large or even predominate portion of their profit should be used to invest in developing long term, next generation energy sources (wind, solar, other). And certainly, we the tax payers should not be subsidizing them if they do not do so.
But oil companies will not do the right thing unless they are forced to. They will. Not. Do. It. Why would they when then can rake in billions and billions of dollars every quarter? Why would they care that gas prices are going up? And what do they care about 10, 20 or 50 years into the future. Oil companies care about quarterly profit sheets - that's profit every three months. Talking about a decade from now to them is like talking about the year 2498. They won't change on their own. So, we have to make them.
I'm no economist, but I think the solution is obvious...cut all current public subsidies to oil companies and close tax loopholes that allow oil companies to skate out on much of or all of their fair share of taxes. Then, and ONLY then, come back to them with legislation that stipulates that for them to regain (new form) tax breaks or subsidies that they will have to invest a certain percentage of their profit margins in new energy development and show resluts against a set of aggressive timeframes and metrics.
- We have a massive budget deficit - a large portion of it due to a) huge and enduring annual expenditures to fight wars in the middle east to protect the supply of oil for our economy and b) a spectacular lack of tax revenue from big business, including big oil.
- Oil companies are reporting massive profits. Not revenue gains...profits. Check it out HERE and HERE.
- Prices for gasoline are at $4 a gallon and going higher - presenting a significant challenge to everyday Americans and certainly for our economy overall.
- Our Federal government provides oil companies tax breaks and tax payer funded subsidies.
- And now the House of Representatives, run by Republicans, is saying that it will not consider ending or reducing those subsidies. Further, we see indication that the Rs will pull out one of the oldest plays in their playbook - blaming the Ds for situations the Rs helped create.
The answer is...it's not.
The longer answer is...it's not right and the fact that these oil company subsidies were created in the first place, have been allowed to continue and now won't be repealed are all testament to who runs the government. Big Oil and their cousins Big Business and Wall Street run it. And guess what? Leaders in those sectors are more interested in massive quarterly profit margins to boost the value of the stock they hold and so they can earn big bonuses than they are in long term energy solutions that will help the economy overall.
With billions of dollars in profit coming in to oil companies on a quarterly basis for a sustained period of time, a large or even predominate portion of their profit should be used to invest in developing long term, next generation energy sources (wind, solar, other). And certainly, we the tax payers should not be subsidizing them if they do not do so.
But oil companies will not do the right thing unless they are forced to. They will. Not. Do. It. Why would they when then can rake in billions and billions of dollars every quarter? Why would they care that gas prices are going up? And what do they care about 10, 20 or 50 years into the future. Oil companies care about quarterly profit sheets - that's profit every three months. Talking about a decade from now to them is like talking about the year 2498. They won't change on their own. So, we have to make them.
I'm no economist, but I think the solution is obvious...cut all current public subsidies to oil companies and close tax loopholes that allow oil companies to skate out on much of or all of their fair share of taxes. Then, and ONLY then, come back to them with legislation that stipulates that for them to regain (new form) tax breaks or subsidies that they will have to invest a certain percentage of their profit margins in new energy development and show resluts against a set of aggressive timeframes and metrics.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
BP - Tax Deductions to Contribute to Paying for Oil Mess
Wonder how BP is going to pay for the $32 billion it estimates the gulf oil spill, cleanup and compensation will cost the company? Think they are simply going to pay up and move on? Oh no, they are going to make sure they come out even on the deal and don't take the hit to their bottom line.
How are they going to do that?
Well, part of their answer is to deduct $10 billion of the cost from their U.S. taxes.
Yep. A third of the expendatures they're laying out they are going to recoup by not paying taxes.
I'm not saying that this is illegal or anything, and I understand that BP is committing the $32 billion. But, I bring this up because I think this maneuver again shows you the nature and motivation of big business. In this case, a company is ready and willing to deduct the cost of a disaster it caused from their taxes to help pay for it's cleanup...depriving the U.S. public of funds that in a more equitable situation it should in receive as compensation for this mess.
Oh, and how will BP make up the rest of the $32 billion so they don't go into the black? It appears they will sell off certain elements of their business to raise the funds. This certainly makes sense, but the thing that is interesting to me is even after doing that, BP will STILL be the second biggest oil company in the world. This is a massive, massive international company. Is it any wonder they have so much influence on our government, its policies and energy regulation?
How are they going to do that?
Well, part of their answer is to deduct $10 billion of the cost from their U.S. taxes.
Yep. A third of the expendatures they're laying out they are going to recoup by not paying taxes.
I'm not saying that this is illegal or anything, and I understand that BP is committing the $32 billion. But, I bring this up because I think this maneuver again shows you the nature and motivation of big business. In this case, a company is ready and willing to deduct the cost of a disaster it caused from their taxes to help pay for it's cleanup...depriving the U.S. public of funds that in a more equitable situation it should in receive as compensation for this mess.
Oh, and how will BP make up the rest of the $32 billion so they don't go into the black? It appears they will sell off certain elements of their business to raise the funds. This certainly makes sense, but the thing that is interesting to me is even after doing that, BP will STILL be the second biggest oil company in the world. This is a massive, massive international company. Is it any wonder they have so much influence on our government, its policies and energy regulation?
Monday, November 3, 2008
OK America...Do the Right Thing
OK America, on Tuesday it's time to get up, put on your big boy and big girl clothes, look in the mirror and go out and elect a president who will begin building the country up again...not to mention elect a Congress and local officials who will do the same.
Here's my two cents on Tuesday's election:
First, vote...no matter who you want to win, just go out and vote. It's not difficult and you'll feel really good regardless of the outcome. Seriously, you will because you will have your voice heard. Think about all the nations that don't have that as a possibility. Yes, we can argue about how well the election process is run, but just do it. Vote.
Second...really think about what our country and your state need in a leader.
Seriously, do we need leaders steeped, schooled and invested in doing things the way they've been done over the last 20-30 years - regardless of what they might call themselves? How well has the nation or even your state been run by the money men, the religon firsters, the "supply side" economists, the deregulators, the friends of big oil, and "war on terror" proponents? If you think these people represent your best interestes, have done a swell job and you're getting what you think is right out of them, and their way of thinking deserves yet another shot...then I think you know who you need to vote for.
Or, do we need leaders who can see things in different ways than in the past? If you think that the way to re-build and stabalize a United States that has become a joke internationally, broke at home and socialy divided is through firing up the economy with bipartisan efforts to create new jobs in technology, green energy and repairing our crumbling infrastructure, by offering tax relief to the vast majority of Americans so they have money to pay bills, buy goods and save for their child's education, by reducing our dependency on Middle Eastern oil, by deploying common sense regulation for Wall Street and the housing market, by viewing social justice as a moral and religous value, by finding a successful short term way out of Iraq and getting down to the real work of protecting the country from terrorist by actually going and getting them where they live...then I think you also know who to vote for.
So America, put on your shoes, get out to your polling place and vote on Tuesday.
One thing is for sure. We will get what we deserve. Here's hoping it's for the best.
Here's my two cents on Tuesday's election:
First, vote...no matter who you want to win, just go out and vote. It's not difficult and you'll feel really good regardless of the outcome. Seriously, you will because you will have your voice heard. Think about all the nations that don't have that as a possibility. Yes, we can argue about how well the election process is run, but just do it. Vote.
Second...really think about what our country and your state need in a leader.
Seriously, do we need leaders steeped, schooled and invested in doing things the way they've been done over the last 20-30 years - regardless of what they might call themselves? How well has the nation or even your state been run by the money men, the religon firsters, the "supply side" economists, the deregulators, the friends of big oil, and "war on terror" proponents? If you think these people represent your best interestes, have done a swell job and you're getting what you think is right out of them, and their way of thinking deserves yet another shot...then I think you know who you need to vote for.
Or, do we need leaders who can see things in different ways than in the past? If you think that the way to re-build and stabalize a United States that has become a joke internationally, broke at home and socialy divided is through firing up the economy with bipartisan efforts to create new jobs in technology, green energy and repairing our crumbling infrastructure, by offering tax relief to the vast majority of Americans so they have money to pay bills, buy goods and save for their child's education, by reducing our dependency on Middle Eastern oil, by deploying common sense regulation for Wall Street and the housing market, by viewing social justice as a moral and religous value, by finding a successful short term way out of Iraq and getting down to the real work of protecting the country from terrorist by actually going and getting them where they live...then I think you also know who to vote for.
So America, put on your shoes, get out to your polling place and vote on Tuesday.
One thing is for sure. We will get what we deserve. Here's hoping it's for the best.
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Gas Prices and the Election Revisited
On September 7, I predicted that the price of a gallon of gas would fall during the election season and leading up to election day.
Lets see how I did.
My original post is here. In it I predicted the price of gas would magically fall more than 40 cents a gallon to about $3.45/gallon in Seattle where I live by the election.
Well, I couldn't have been more wrong.
Not because the price of gas didn't fall. No, I was wrong in that the price fell so much more than I ever thought it would. As of today, gas in Seattle costs $2.69/gallon. Wow! More than a full dollar a gallon in less than eight weeks.
Mind you, the current price is still higher than it was a couple years ago. I certainly can't figure all the ins-and-outs and reasons why the oil market works the way it does. And I know there are wars, economic issues, OPEC decisions on production, weather, etc. that play into it all. But, I'm also not blind. It seems so obvious that gas prices - always going up over the long term trend - drop just before elections and at other opportune times. It just seems clear to me that it's not a coincidence - something else is going on.
In that spirit, my next prediction...the price of a gallon of gas will be $3.00 or higher by the time the next president is sworn in this coming January. If it's Obama...look for $3.40 or higher.
Lets see how I did.
My original post is here. In it I predicted the price of gas would magically fall more than 40 cents a gallon to about $3.45/gallon in Seattle where I live by the election.
Well, I couldn't have been more wrong.
Not because the price of gas didn't fall. No, I was wrong in that the price fell so much more than I ever thought it would. As of today, gas in Seattle costs $2.69/gallon. Wow! More than a full dollar a gallon in less than eight weeks.
Mind you, the current price is still higher than it was a couple years ago. I certainly can't figure all the ins-and-outs and reasons why the oil market works the way it does. And I know there are wars, economic issues, OPEC decisions on production, weather, etc. that play into it all. But, I'm also not blind. It seems so obvious that gas prices - always going up over the long term trend - drop just before elections and at other opportune times. It just seems clear to me that it's not a coincidence - something else is going on.
In that spirit, my next prediction...the price of a gallon of gas will be $3.00 or higher by the time the next president is sworn in this coming January. If it's Obama...look for $3.40 or higher.
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Your "stimulus package" check and big oil
Bush and Cheney are oil men. Oil men have financed their campaigns during their entire careers. This has paid off big time for oil companies again and again.
While gasoline prices have skyrocketed during the Bush presidency, oil companies have enjoyed spectacular and record breaking profits …and remember, some of these oil companies have been around for 100 years or more. These same oil companies get huge tax relief despite the windfall profits.
Also, our nation is at war in the Middle East over oil (yeah sure, go ahead and try to convince me Iraq is all about "fighting terrorists over there so we don’t have to fight them over here”).
Former oil company executives hold positions of power in the government and government leaders often go on to positions of power at oil companies. Oil companies held sway over their buddies George and Dick in terms of the environment too...resulting in the U.S. bailing out of the Kyoto treaty.
So, is it any surprise that recently the oil-man-in-chief…aka, “The Decider”…recommended that Americans can spend their “economic stimulus” checks (ours hasn’t arrived yet) on gasoline? You know, to offset the bite we’re all feeling because of high prices.
Putting aside for a moment how asinine, pandering and ineffective the stimulus check idea is, this really pisses me off.
Our money pays taxes that support the government. The government is run by oil men and women and beholden to the oil industry. At the very moment when maximum profit for big oil coinsides with big time pain at the pump for everyday people, these oil men suggest you put that money right back in the hands of…you guessed it, the oil companies?
Is our government a wholly owned subsidiary of big oil? Has our government – 100% led by Republicans in six of the last seven years – simply created a massive funnel to shift tax dollars to oil companies? And, has all of this radically diverted time, money and effort to the things our country should really be focusing on?
Yes is my answer.
What are we going to do about it? What are you going to do about it?
While gasoline prices have skyrocketed during the Bush presidency, oil companies have enjoyed spectacular and record breaking profits …and remember, some of these oil companies have been around for 100 years or more. These same oil companies get huge tax relief despite the windfall profits.
Also, our nation is at war in the Middle East over oil (yeah sure, go ahead and try to convince me Iraq is all about "fighting terrorists over there so we don’t have to fight them over here”).
Former oil company executives hold positions of power in the government and government leaders often go on to positions of power at oil companies. Oil companies held sway over their buddies George and Dick in terms of the environment too...resulting in the U.S. bailing out of the Kyoto treaty.
So, is it any surprise that recently the oil-man-in-chief…aka, “The Decider”…recommended that Americans can spend their “economic stimulus” checks (ours hasn’t arrived yet) on gasoline? You know, to offset the bite we’re all feeling because of high prices.
Putting aside for a moment how asinine, pandering and ineffective the stimulus check idea is, this really pisses me off.
Our money pays taxes that support the government. The government is run by oil men and women and beholden to the oil industry. At the very moment when maximum profit for big oil coinsides with big time pain at the pump for everyday people, these oil men suggest you put that money right back in the hands of…you guessed it, the oil companies?
Is our government a wholly owned subsidiary of big oil? Has our government – 100% led by Republicans in six of the last seven years – simply created a massive funnel to shift tax dollars to oil companies? And, has all of this radically diverted time, money and effort to the things our country should really be focusing on?
Yes is my answer.
What are we going to do about it? What are you going to do about it?
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