With the Presidential and other big political races coming down the homestretch, I thought it would be the right time to check in on a little pet theory of mine - namely that gas prices go up or down in an election year based on which situation will favor the energy sector. See my posts HERE, HERE and HERE for my previous thoughts on this issue.
Energy companies tend to favor policies and politicians that are apt to deregulate their industry and cut their taxes. Sound like one of the two U.S. political parties you might know? Right. The Republicans.
OK, so, say you are a "big energy" company. You want as many conservatives in the government as you can, and if you can help voters choose the conservative candidate for President all the better. What to do?
A Republican in office you want to see re-elected? Like in 2004. How about an open seat election like we had in 2008 following eight years of a Republican President? You might be apt to see to it that gas prices are lower so people are apt to feel better about the economy and not blame your candidate for gas prices. And that's just what happened in those years. Sure enough, in the midst of a two wars in the middle east and the aftermath of 9-11, gas prices actually went down in the months leading up to the election in 2004. Same thing in 2008 in the middle of a major, major economic meltdown on Wall Street and housing, gas prices went down right before the election.
Democrats in majority or the Presidency? You want the electorate to feel like the economy is bad and, therefore, more likely to vote for the other party in hopes of change...your party, the Republicans. Well, you jack prices up so people feel the pain every time they go to the pump. This will make them more apt to feel the economy is bad and, hopefully for you, vote Republican. And indeed, we can see that gas prices - while going up and down over the summer - are now higher than they were a year ago as Election Day 2012 comes closer and closer.
For example, at our nearby Shell station here in Seattle, gas is at $4.19 a gallon for regular gas. Back in March in the middle of the primaries, it was $4.09.
Now, I understand there is no way to prove that the price of a gallon of gas is directly tied to election cycles and which situation and candidate favors the energy sector...I'm just saying its erie how that is exactly what appears to happen every four years. I'm just sayin'.
So, will gas prices continue to go up until election day? I predict they will.
Showing posts with label gas. Show all posts
Showing posts with label gas. Show all posts
Saturday, October 6, 2012
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Gas Prices and the Presidential Election
Four years ago I wrote about how gas prices would magically come down during the Presidential election cycle. You can see my posts HERE and HERE.
The premise of my posts at the time was that oil companies and the energy sector of our economy has enjoyed such spectacular and historical profits with Republicans in the White House that they would be willing to take a hit for a few months to help ease one very painful economic issue that most Americans ascribe to "the economy"...and therefore, in theory, lessen their likelihood to turn out to vote or to vote for Obama on the need for a better economy and more likely to be open to vote for McCain.
Based on my personal experience at my local gas pumps that year, I can say that I was right in my prediction about prices.
For the exact same reasons, I now predict that gas prices will rise steadily over the next several months and into prime time election season. To be clear...the energy sector wants a Republican as president for the major deregulation and massive tax breaks they believe a conservative will bring to their industry. Therefore, it benefits them for the electorate to have a reason to be mad at the Democratic incumbent and more likely to vote for the Republican alternative. Gas prices are such an ever day reality in virtually every Americans' life that a steady or steep rise would really hurt. So, I think oil companies will find ways to raise prices during this election season.
Sure, you'll hear about the threat of a nuclear Iran, reduced refining capacity in the U.S. and general screwed up global economy as reasons. And yes, some of those things do have an impact on gas prices here in the U.S. But think about this: four years ago we were in "hot" wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and in the absolute depths of the economic crises...and prices at the pump when down!
No, what you need to do is compare all that international and infrastrcuture reasoning with the motivation of US energy companies to sustain record profit margins on a quarterly basis...and my opinion is you see the primary reason for gas prices going up now. It's a long term strategic play by big oil to do what they can to maximize the chances of a Republican winning the presidency...and more seats in Congress if possible.
So to close, gas prices at the local Shell station near my house in the Seattle area at $4.09 per gallon today, March 13, 2012. I'll check back with you in the early summer and then October to see where we're at and if I'm correct on my prediction.
The premise of my posts at the time was that oil companies and the energy sector of our economy has enjoyed such spectacular and historical profits with Republicans in the White House that they would be willing to take a hit for a few months to help ease one very painful economic issue that most Americans ascribe to "the economy"...and therefore, in theory, lessen their likelihood to turn out to vote or to vote for Obama on the need for a better economy and more likely to be open to vote for McCain.
Based on my personal experience at my local gas pumps that year, I can say that I was right in my prediction about prices.
For the exact same reasons, I now predict that gas prices will rise steadily over the next several months and into prime time election season. To be clear...the energy sector wants a Republican as president for the major deregulation and massive tax breaks they believe a conservative will bring to their industry. Therefore, it benefits them for the electorate to have a reason to be mad at the Democratic incumbent and more likely to vote for the Republican alternative. Gas prices are such an ever day reality in virtually every Americans' life that a steady or steep rise would really hurt. So, I think oil companies will find ways to raise prices during this election season.
Sure, you'll hear about the threat of a nuclear Iran, reduced refining capacity in the U.S. and general screwed up global economy as reasons. And yes, some of those things do have an impact on gas prices here in the U.S. But think about this: four years ago we were in "hot" wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and in the absolute depths of the economic crises...and prices at the pump when down!
No, what you need to do is compare all that international and infrastrcuture reasoning with the motivation of US energy companies to sustain record profit margins on a quarterly basis...and my opinion is you see the primary reason for gas prices going up now. It's a long term strategic play by big oil to do what they can to maximize the chances of a Republican winning the presidency...and more seats in Congress if possible.
So to close, gas prices at the local Shell station near my house in the Seattle area at $4.09 per gallon today, March 13, 2012. I'll check back with you in the early summer and then October to see where we're at and if I'm correct on my prediction.
Sunday, September 7, 2008
Gas Prices and the Election
OK, here's one for you...
It's my guess that gas prices will magically come down over the next two months as we lead up to the election. And, I think the tighter the race between Obama and McCain is, the more they'll come down.
Why? I think the oil companies and the energy sector of our economy has enjoyed such historical success with Republicans in the White House that they will be willing to take a hit for a couple months to help ease one very painful economic issue that most Americans ascribe to "the economy"...and therefore, in theory, lessen their likelihood to turn out to vote or to vote for Obama.
We just bought a tankful yesterday, Sept. 6 at our local Shell station here in Seattle at $3.87 a gallon. Lets see what it is on Nov. 1.
My guess? Somewhere around $3.45 per gallon. Still higher than we were paying a year ago, but reduced enough that we fell like "things are getting better."
We'll see.
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Your "stimulus package" check and big oil
Bush and Cheney are oil men. Oil men have financed their campaigns during their entire careers. This has paid off big time for oil companies again and again.
While gasoline prices have skyrocketed during the Bush presidency, oil companies have enjoyed spectacular and record breaking profits …and remember, some of these oil companies have been around for 100 years or more. These same oil companies get huge tax relief despite the windfall profits.
Also, our nation is at war in the Middle East over oil (yeah sure, go ahead and try to convince me Iraq is all about "fighting terrorists over there so we don’t have to fight them over here”).
Former oil company executives hold positions of power in the government and government leaders often go on to positions of power at oil companies. Oil companies held sway over their buddies George and Dick in terms of the environment too...resulting in the U.S. bailing out of the Kyoto treaty.
So, is it any surprise that recently the oil-man-in-chief…aka, “The Decider”…recommended that Americans can spend their “economic stimulus” checks (ours hasn’t arrived yet) on gasoline? You know, to offset the bite we’re all feeling because of high prices.
Putting aside for a moment how asinine, pandering and ineffective the stimulus check idea is, this really pisses me off.
Our money pays taxes that support the government. The government is run by oil men and women and beholden to the oil industry. At the very moment when maximum profit for big oil coinsides with big time pain at the pump for everyday people, these oil men suggest you put that money right back in the hands of…you guessed it, the oil companies?
Is our government a wholly owned subsidiary of big oil? Has our government – 100% led by Republicans in six of the last seven years – simply created a massive funnel to shift tax dollars to oil companies? And, has all of this radically diverted time, money and effort to the things our country should really be focusing on?
Yes is my answer.
What are we going to do about it? What are you going to do about it?
While gasoline prices have skyrocketed during the Bush presidency, oil companies have enjoyed spectacular and record breaking profits …and remember, some of these oil companies have been around for 100 years or more. These same oil companies get huge tax relief despite the windfall profits.
Also, our nation is at war in the Middle East over oil (yeah sure, go ahead and try to convince me Iraq is all about "fighting terrorists over there so we don’t have to fight them over here”).
Former oil company executives hold positions of power in the government and government leaders often go on to positions of power at oil companies. Oil companies held sway over their buddies George and Dick in terms of the environment too...resulting in the U.S. bailing out of the Kyoto treaty.
So, is it any surprise that recently the oil-man-in-chief…aka, “The Decider”…recommended that Americans can spend their “economic stimulus” checks (ours hasn’t arrived yet) on gasoline? You know, to offset the bite we’re all feeling because of high prices.
Putting aside for a moment how asinine, pandering and ineffective the stimulus check idea is, this really pisses me off.
Our money pays taxes that support the government. The government is run by oil men and women and beholden to the oil industry. At the very moment when maximum profit for big oil coinsides with big time pain at the pump for everyday people, these oil men suggest you put that money right back in the hands of…you guessed it, the oil companies?
Is our government a wholly owned subsidiary of big oil? Has our government – 100% led by Republicans in six of the last seven years – simply created a massive funnel to shift tax dollars to oil companies? And, has all of this radically diverted time, money and effort to the things our country should really be focusing on?
Yes is my answer.
What are we going to do about it? What are you going to do about it?
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)