Who are Red Staters in 2008?

To say the least, I'm thrilled with the Obama victory and the big gains for the Democrats in Congress. To them I say, "Well done...now do something!"

Meanwhile, after seeing the tide of blue wash over so many states on election eve, I got to thinking...who inhabit those states that still went to McCain? After the last eight years of getting the royal screw job from Bush and the Republicans in DC, what would possess them to vote for more of the same? It's just a fascinating issue to consider I think.

To state the obvious, these states contain majorities of people who consider themselves "conservative." But what does that mean? And, what about that would compel these people to vote again for the R's?

While I do not hold myself out as a political or demographic expert, I think there may be several reasons for "red" voting in 2008. Here are a few I've been pondering...

Issue voting

One possible conclusion is that in 2008 red states, for the conservative majorities, individual issue voting trumped the greater good of the nation. Sure, red staters know that the economy is in the dumper, we're about to enter year seven in two wars, good paying jobs are leaving the country, working wages have stagnated, etc. They get that. It's just that majorities in red states feel that certain individual issues are more important. Or, that if they elect candidates that represent their views on one or two issues, that for sure those same candidates will address other problems to their satisfaction.

Rich, poor or middle class, here are a few issues identified with conservatives that may have motivated votes for McCain in 2008:

• Guns - don't take 'em, in fact give them out, include machine guns in that...and if you don't like it you must be a communist
• Abortion - against it for moral/religious reasons, and therefore so should everybody else in the country
• Anti-gay rights - don't understand it, don't like it, thinks it's against "God," and therefore the entire nation should be subject to those value judgements
• Small government - AKA, get government off my back. Contrary to all evidence, red staters feel that the Republicans will run smaller, less intrusive, less expensive government.
• Taxes - like most Americans, they don't like taxes. They like what they hear from Republicans about lowering taxes and buy the line that all Democrats will always raise all taxes all the time.
• War - they backed the team that got us the Iraq war and who mismanaged it, but they're not going to admit defeat and vote for the other team because to do so would be seen as "weak." Also, there are a lot of military families in red states and many cannot bring themselves to vote against a military man such as McCain (which I can understand to a point).
• Immigration - don't want illegals here (unless one of them can mow their lawn for cheap) and have little tolerance for immigrant issues.

The two big ironies about voting along these individual issue lines of course are:

1. It is the exact opposite of the "country first" concept McCain ran on in 2008. You want to talk about putting country first, fine. But, don't then go out and vote based on one or two issues. Look at the whole picture and what's best for the whole nation...not just where you live or what your pastor says.
2. What have these red staters received in terms of satisfaction on these issues over the last eight years...or even the last 20 years? Not much. Vote for anti-abortion, get tax cuts for the wealthy. Vote for prayer in schools, get a reduction in your health coverage. Vote for small government, get the biggest US government in the nation's history.

But, these ironies are a topic for another day.

Economies not as affected by economic downturn

Think about it. Are Oklahoma, Utah, Alabama and Kentucky - for example - as hard hit by the housing crisis, low dollar value, stock market crash and outsourcing of jobs as, say, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Indiana?

No, they're not.

I'm not saying they don't have economic issues in red states...they do. But they always have. For the most part hard core red states (save maybe Texas) are poorer by comparison to blue states, and not much changes year in and year out. It's relatively static. And because of this, the individual issues discussed above come more to the fore when conservative majorities consider who to vote for - not to mention moderates in those same states.

Closed Minds

Call it religion, call it tradition, call it "rugged individualism," or whatever you want, but there has to be some element of walling off...of closing the mind to what's going on in the world and in the nation as a whole for people in red states to do the voting the equivalent sticking their fingers in their ears, closing their eyes and stamping their feet while saying "I-AM-NOT-LIST-EN-ING-TO-YOU...I-AM-NOT-LIST-EN-ING."

How else can you explain it? I think there might be something in...

The Rich/Religion Dynamic

In red states, the rich have their money and they vote to support the candidates who they feel will help keep them rich. Simple as that. No need to think any further. Many blue state rich do the same, but there tends to be a) more rich people in blue states, and b) more of them vote Democratic.

Meanwhile, the middle class and poor in red states tend to have more concentrated religious devotion than in other parts of the country. And, the brand that seems to prevail in those states is a much more exclusionary, literal and strict brand of God fearing than in blue states. These influences come to the fore in red state America to motivate and justify voting conservative regardless of what's really going on in their state, nation and world. So again, very simple from their perspective. No need to question or think. Just vote on narrow "moral" grounds.

Summary

All and all, I've probably laid out a far too rudimentary set of ideas to explain why certain states continue to vote conservative year after year no matter what. But, my conclusion is that it's a combination of issue-first voting motivated by simplistic thinking that is amplified by the relatively static nature of these states' economies.

Hey, there will always be conservatives and liberals. However, if we are to operate in a bipartisan way as president-elect Obama has called for to really rise up and solve our problems, I think it's best to try and understand where people who do not agree with us are coming from. That way, we have a better chance of working with the opposite set in constructive ways.

Anyway, an attempt.

Victory!

Casting a Ballot - One Person's Experience

I voted today...and I have the "I Voted 2008" sticker to prove it in case you doubt me.

After following the state and national campaigns for a year or more, and perhaps equally importantly after a cup of strong coffee at home this morning, I walked the four blocks in the grey pre-sunrise Seattle drizzle to my local polling place to do my civic duty as the polls opened at 7 a.m.

As I rounded the last corner, I was pleasantly surprised to see so many of my fellow citizens had turned out too as a line extended out the door of the school and around the corner of the block. I've been voting in this place for years and I've never seen so many people there. 

As I waited in that line in the cool morning air, and as we filed in to get our ballots, fill them out and slide them smoothly into the box I reflected on how important this election is and what it meant for me to be there voting in person. To me, it boiled down to two key things:

• This is a momentous election on many levels - national, state and local. The issues have been covered, commented upon and analyzed repeatedly (including on this blog), so we all know what is at stake. Participating in this collective American decision, influencing what we do next at this critical juncture in our history, and making sure my voice was heard proved to be a very rewarding moment. Not much more to say than that, except...

• Another part of that oval sticker that I received after voting says "farewell to polls." That's because this election is the last in which residents of King County (the county in which the city of Seattle sits) will be able to vote in person on election day at a polling place. The entire election will be conducted by mail in all future elections. No more will voters here be able to literally drop a ballot in a box on election day, and I think this will be missed - at least I know I will miss it. Today's experience drove that home to me. The hot gym packed with people, the conversations with fellow members of the community while waiting in line, holding the ballot, filling it your choices at a voting station and putting the ballot into the scanner box for counting...all of this will no longer be. Since the beginning of the nation, this has been how people voted. So, call me nostalgic or old fashioned, but I will miss voting in this manner, and doing so for the last time today added to the overall importance of the experience.
  

My duty discharged, I made my way back home to start work. I work with people in Ohio and on phone calls with them today several commented that lines were 1.5 hours long (my experience was about 40 min. total) and that there were many "observers" at the polling places as lawsuits are expected over the vote tallies no matter what happens. Ominous signals from that critical state for sure.

Later today Diane and I will visit a friend's house to watch election returns and see who wins. 

My fingers are crossed that the nation chooses well...not to mention my state and local community.

OK America...Do the Right Thing

OK America, on Tuesday it's time to get up, put on your big boy and big girl clothes, look in the mirror and go out and elect a president who will begin building the country up again...not to mention elect a Congress and local officials who will do the same.

Here's my two cents on Tuesday's election:

First, vote...no matter who you want to win, just go out and vote. It's not difficult and you'll feel really good regardless of the outcome. Seriously, you will because you will have your voice heard. Think about all the nations that don't have that as a possibility. Yes, we can argue about how well the election process is run, but just do it. Vote.

Second...really think about what our country and your state need in a leader.

Seriously, do we need leaders steeped, schooled and invested in doing things the way they've been done over the last 20-30 years - regardless of what they might call themselves? How well has the nation or even your state been run by the money men, the religon firsters, the "supply side" economists, the deregulators, the friends of big oil, and "war on terror" proponents? If you think these people represent your best interestes, have done a swell job and you're getting what you think is right out of them, and their way of thinking deserves yet another shot...then I think you know who you need to vote for.

Or, do we need leaders who can see things in different ways than in the past? If you think that the way to re-build and stabalize a United States that has become a joke internationally, broke at home and socialy divided is through firing up the economy with bipartisan efforts to create new jobs in technology, green energy and repairing our crumbling infrastructure, by offering tax relief to the vast majority of Americans so they have money to pay bills, buy goods and save for their child's education, by reducing our dependency on Middle Eastern oil, by deploying common sense regulation for Wall Street and the housing market, by viewing social justice as a moral and religous value, by finding a successful short term way out of Iraq and getting down to the real work of protecting the country from terrorist by actually going and getting them where they live...then I think you also know who to vote for.

So America, put on your shoes, get out to your polling place and vote on Tuesday.

One thing is for sure. We will get what we deserve. Here's hoping it's for the best.

Gas Prices and the Election Revisited

On September 7, I predicted that the price of a gallon of gas would fall during the election season and leading up to election day.

Lets see how I did.


My original post is here. In it I predicted the price of gas would magically fall more than 40 cents a gallon to about $3.45/gallon in Seattle where I live by the election.

Well, I couldn't have been more wrong.

Not because the price of gas didn't fall. No, I was wrong in that the price fell so much more than I ever thought it would. As of today, gas in Seattle costs $2.69/gallon. Wow! More than a full dollar a gallon in less than eight weeks.

Mind you, the current price is still higher than it was a couple years ago. I certainly can't figure all the ins-and-outs and reasons why the oil market works the way it does. And I know there are wars, economic issues, OPEC decisions on production, weather, etc. that play into it all. But, I'm also not blind. It seems so obvious that gas prices - always going up over the long term trend - drop just before elections and at other opportune times. It just seems clear to me that it's not a coincidence - something else is going on.

In that spirit, my next prediction...the price of a gallon of gas will be $3.00 or higher by the time the next president is sworn in this coming January. If it's Obama...look for $3.40 or higher.

Glasvegas single is free on iTunes

Just noticed this...

The song "Geraldine" by the band Glasvegas is the free download of the week at iTunes. It's on the main store page right in the middle.

Since it's now Saturday, the offer of free will probably be gone by tomorrow or Monday.

So, now is your chance to check out Glasvegas at no cost. 

Pictures of Southeast Asia Now On My Flickr Photostream

I have added pictures from our 2006 trip to Southeast Asia to my Flickr Photostream.

In particular...

Pictures of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam here.

Pictures of the region of Cambodia near Angkor Wat here. 

Enjoy.

I'll have more pictures from this trip to post over the next few weeks. And, if I can find the time, perhaps some thoughts on what we saw.