Pac-12 Football: 2014 Final Standings + League Title Prediction

What a season! Great games, upsets, road teams winning, Hail Mary victories, a front-runner Heisman candidate, a player named Scooby and great performances from a lot of players.

In total I went 64-19 in predicting winners of Pac-12 games this season. That's a 70% rate of success. Pretty good.

Below is how I thought the standings would be at the end of the season and then how they actually turned out. And below that is how I think the Pac-12 Title Game will go.

NORTH DIVISION

Here is how I predicted the teams in this division would finish...

1. Oregon
2. Stanford 
3. Oregon State 
4. UW 
5. WSU
6. Cal 

Here is how they actually finished...

1. Oregon (11-1, 8-1)
2. Stanford (7-5, 5-4)
3. UW (8-5, 4-5) 
4. Cal (5-7, 3-6)
5. WSU (3-9, 2-7)
6. Oregon State (5-7, 2-7)

I got the first two and fifth place correct, but otherwise it was a jumble with UW and Cal performing a bit better than I thought and Oregon State a lot worse. Overall, despite some good games, this division ended up being Oregon and then everyone else. The Ducks swept every school...and, other than WSU, by a lot of points.

Game of the season: Oregon beats Stanford, stopping a two season skid against the Cardinal and latching onto the North Division lead for good. 

Next: All this puts Oregon into the Pac-12 title game Friday.

SOUTH DIVISION
Here is how I predicted the teams in this division would finish...

1. UCLA
2. USC
3. ASU
4. UA
5. Utah
6. CU

Here is how they actually finished...

1. UA (10-2, 7-2) 
2. UCLA (9-3, 6-3) 
3. ASU (9-3, 6-3)
4. USC (8-4, 6-3)
5. Utah (8-4, 5-4)
6. CU (2-10, 0-9) 

I got spots 3, 5 and 6 correct. But, Arizona played much better than I thought they would with a new QB and replacing some key players on both sides of the ball. Meanwhile, UCLA under-performed...I bought into the annual UCLA hype this year and should not have. And USC had an OK year, but not as good as their talent would suggest.

Game of the season: Way too many to pick just one. But, I'll try...ASU beats UCLA in the last game of the regular season. This eliminates the Bruins from winning the South Division and catapults UA into that position.

Next: These results put Arizona into the Pac-12 title game Friday.

Pac-12 TITLE GAME - Dec. 5, 2014 

Oregon Ducks vs. Arizona Wildcats in Santa Clara, CA at 6 p.m. Pacific 
By virtue of its better record, Oregon is the "home" team, but this is a neutral site match up.

This is obviously a compelling game. Here are several reasons why...

Oregon: If they win, not only will they re-capture the league title for the first time in three seasons, but they will be a lock to get into the four-team national championship playoff. And that would likely be in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1. Oh, and barring a bad game, QB Mariota is probably your 2014 Heisman Trophy winner. And if all that wasn't enough for the Ducks to be motivated, Arizona is the team that gave them their one loss earlier in the season...so revenge will be a factor. If Oregon loses, for the third season in a row they will be relegated to the odd situation of being second banana in a league they dominated. Sure, they'll still probably get a decent bowl, but no playoff and no Heisman.

Arizona: These are heady days for Arizona's football program. Sure, by all rights they should have lost to UW and were only saved by a super bone headed coaching decision by Washington to not "take a knee" at the end of that game. But, they now have a chance to win their first Pac title ever. That is their motivation. That and of course trying to show their earlier victory over UO was not a fluke. If they beat the favored Ducks, they'll have an outside shot at the playoff (depending on what else happens nationally) but more likely a sweet New Years Day bowl. If they lose, they drop to a being a three-loss team and while they will go bowling and probably still be ranked, it'll be quite a bit less of a season for them.

Big Picture: How Oregon does in this game will have a direct impact on which schools are in the four team national title playoff. If the Ducks win, they're in...locking up one of the four spots. If they lose, then another school will get in.

What do I think will happen in this game?

I think Oregon will win this time against Arizona. It'll be a hard fought, tough game for a half...maybe even three quarters. Arizona will put points on the board, sure. But, this time around Oregon will pull away and win by a couple scores. Why do I think this? A few reasons:

1) Oregon has a healthy offensive line this time. Due to a wave of injuries, in October they were starting walk ons and Freshmen at most spots on the line against UA. It showed. The running game was extremely limited, Mariota was hurried and sacked a lot and the Ducks were unable to take advantage of the aggressive Arizona defense. Additionally, key defensive players left the game because of injury too. It was still a very close game, but the Ducks could not do enough to win. However, since getting many/most their starters back on the line...

2) Oregon's offense has ramped up considerably and they are hitting on all cylinders. Loads of talent and experience all over the field. This time, I expect the Ducks to make Arizona pay for their aggressive play on defense with more yards, more first downs and more points.

3) Oregon's defense has steadily improved. In the defeat to Arizona they looked lost and unprepared. Horrible to be honest. Since then they've gotten better and better each week - particularly at linebacker. Arizona feasted on the short pass over the middle or to the flat followed by long runs by the receiver. That was poor linebacker play...something that has greatly improved since. Also, the Ducks have gotten a much better pass rush since the loss. And I highly doubt there will be any stupid "unsportsmanlike conduct" penalties for celebration such as the one that created the Arizona drive that cost the Ducks the earlier game with Arizona.

My prediction is that these three factors will be clearly on display and will add up to an Oregon win:

Oregon 45-UA 28

Week 5 Pac-12 Predictions

And now it begins. Yes, league play. No more cream puffs to practice on.

Here is what I think will happen this week...

Oregon (3-0, 0-0) vs. Cal in (1-2, 0-0) Eugene. Oregon will win this one. If this was at Cal I'd say you never know 'cause I have seen some CRAZY things happen to the Ducks when they play in Berkely. But this one's in Oregon...at night. UO 44-Cal 20.

Washington (3-0, 0-0) vs. Arizona (3-0, 0-0) in Seattle. OK, the Huskies have it going, but they've played poor competition so far. UA is a much stiffer challenge. This one is in Seattle and with the Dawgs getting the hang of their new O, I think they will come out on top in a high scoring game. UW 49-UA 44.

WSU (3-1, 1-0) vs. Stanford (3-0, 0-0) in Pullman. Nice start for the Cougs so far this season. Hope springs eternal that WSU will win at least six and get to a bowl game. But one of those wins won't be this weekend. Stanford rolls up the Cougars. Stanford 33-WSU 17.

Oregon State (3-1, 1-0) vs. Colorado (2-0, 0-0) in Corvallis. Hmmm. Interesting matchup. An over achieving Buffalos squad and an underachieving OS team. Could go either way. I'll go with the home team. OS 24-CU 10.

USC (3-1, 0-1) vs. ASU (2-1, 0-1) in Tempe. Two teams questioning where they're at so early in the season. I think ASU has a shot here. I'll pick them to win. ASU 28-USC 24.

Utah and UCLA have the weekend off.

Week 10 Pac-12 Predictions

Well, well, well...things are starting to be clarified in the Pac-12 and nationally. Big wins by Oregon and Oregon State this week really show them off to be - along with USC - the class of the league.

Meanwhile, Notre Dame was expossed a bit as a pretender by barely beating a weak Pitt team at home in tripple overtime...and they paid the price for that by dropping in the national rankings behind Oregon.

Below is my Pac-12 BCS update and predictions for next week's games...

Pac-12 BCS Situation
Oregon is in the driver seat. Win out and they'll very likely be in the title game vs. either Alabama or Kansas State. And hey, even if they "only" win the Pac-12 title, they'll be in the Rose Bowl.

Oregon State is looking pretty good for a BCS game too. If they win out and win the league title game, that will mean they beat Oregon and the South champ. If that happens, the Beavers would at minimum be in the Rose Bowl. It's also possible that the Beavers win all the rest of their games except Oregon, finish at 11-1 and get picked up for BCS game anyway - Rose bieng the likely one.

USC, ASU and UCLA all have shots at winning the South and appearing in the Pac-12 title game...and hence, in theory, a shot at the Rose Bowl.

What I think will happen this week...

Oregon vs. Cal in Berkley. At Cal is usually a tough one for Oregon. Not this year. Yes, it's the road and yes perhaps the Ducks are suseptable to the letdown after beating USC. But I'm going to say that Oregon is just too good to lose to a depleated and demotivated Cal. Ain't going to happen. UO 31- Cal 21.

Washington vs. Utah in Seattle. UW wins this one at home to get their third in a row and become bowl eligible. I say UW 24-UU 13.

Washington State vs. UCLA in Pullman. Demotivated WSU vs. schizophrenic UCLA. The Bruins are the better team and I think they'll win. UCLA 28-WSU 17.

Oregon State vs. Stanford at Palo Alto. Hmmm. Interesting game here. I'd like to think Stanford would take care of business at home, but the Beavers are playing well. I say OSU 26-Stanford 21.

USC vs. ASU in L.A. USC has lost two in a row. But they're still USC while ASU is, well, still ASU. Talent kills hype in this one. USC 41-ASU 24.

Arizona vs. Colorado in Tucson. Arizona blew the momentum gained by beating USC by not showing up vs. UCLA last weekend and losing big. But, they're still better than Colorado and will win. UA 31-CU 9.

Week 9 Pac-12 Predictions

Some surprises last weekend. USC lost to Arizona and UW beat Oregon State. Just goes to show you that as much as you think you know how things will go...you never know.

Here is my little BCS overview and Week 9 predictions...

Pac-12 BCS Bowl Situation
Some significant movement this week in the BSC situation...mostly not good for the Pac-12.

• #4 Oregon won once again, leaving them as one of four undefeated teams at the top of the rankings. But, once again, Oregon was not rewarded for their win while other around them in the ranks were. #1 Alabama won, #2 Florida lost, #3 Kansas State won and #5 Notre Dame won. So, Ducks should be #3 now, right? Wrong, the BSC now has Notre Dame skipping over Oregon to the #3 spot. Meanwhile Kansas State slides up to #2. Sigh. 
• Meanwhile, USC lost and they now have two league losses. That eliminates them from the National Title hunt and puts their chances for a league title and Rose Bowl berth in serious jeopardy. It also devalues any Oregon win over them a bit...which won't help Oregon's chances of moving up.
• Oregon State lost for the first time. This will virtually knock them out of any talk of a National Title appearance, but they are still alive for a league title and Rose Bowl with tough games coming up.

Oregon, Oregon State, USC, Arizona, UCLA and ASU all still have a shot at the league title and the Rose Bowl.

Other than that, opportunities for any other Pac-12 team for the league title are slim or none.

Oregon could get to the National Title game if it wins all the rest of its games and finishes 13-0. Or, they may still do that and be "relegated" to the Rose Bowl.

It is also possible that if Oregon wins all its games except the Civil War against Oregon State...it could possibly still appear in a BSC Bowl as an at-large selection with a 12-1 record. Oregon State would probably not in a similar scenario because they'd have two losses if they lose the Civil War.

We'll see what next week brings. Meanwhile, here's what I think will happen this week...

Oregon vs. USC in L.A. The big one. But it got a little less big last weekend with USC choking against Arizona. None the less, Oregon's hopes for a National Title run faces a significant test here. And, both teams have a lot to play for in terms of a shot at the league title and, at worst, the Rose Bowl berth that it would earn them. I think this will be a close game - no blowout. I think both squads present significant challenges against the other. I would not be shocked if USC won this game, but sitting here thinking about all the previous games for both teams this season, I think Oregon is a bit better overall and has more depth. So, I'm going to say Oregon 34-USC 27.

Oregon State vs. ASU in Corvallis. Toss up. ASU has the talent to win, OSU may be feeling deflated after their loss to UW. I just have a feeling ASU is going to come into this one and play well...and win. I say ASU 31-OSU 24.

Stanford vs. Colorado in Boulder. It just doesn't get any easier for Colorado following successive games against USC and Oregon. Now comes Stanford. Stanford 44-CU 17.

UW vs. Cal in Berkley. UW is feeling good. Cal is not. UW does not play well on the road. Cal is at home. Both teams are wildly inconsistent. Hmm. OK, I'll say UW reverts back to its road woes and Cal wins 24-17.

WSU vs. Utah in Salt Lake City. Neither team is impressive or all that fun to watch. I'll say UU 21- WSU 20.

UCLA vs. Arizona in L.A. "Fools Gold Bowl II." Both annual pretenders to the league crown. One will win and extend their fantasy one more week while the other will lose and fulfill their yearly dive to the lower reaches of the standings. I say Arizona finally takes their step forward and wins. UA 35-UCLA 22.

Pac-12 Week 8 Predictions

Learned last weekend: UW's offense is a turnover giving machine, USC looks less and less a menace every week and Oregon State is shaping up to be a real threat for the North and League title.

This week...

Oregon vs. ASU in Tempe. A tough road test for the Ducks in a Thursday night matchup. But, I think ASU is a bit over-rated. As with other UO games this season, I see a close one into the third...then boom! Look out. Ducks 41-ASU 24.

Oregon State vs. Utah in Corvallis. You'd think OSU would roll on with their momentum and beat the Utes handily at home. But I say they actually choke a bit in this one...but win. OSU 21- UU 20.

USC vs. Colorado in L.A. Not close. USC 48-CU10.

Stanford vs. Cal in Berkley. Strange to see this rivalry game in the middle of the season instead of at the end as normal. None the less, Stanford is better and smarting after that oh-so-close OT loss to ND last week. I think they rebound and win 23-17.

Washington vs. Arizona in Tucson. Washington gets a much needed win and does so on the road. UW 31-UA24.


Not Playing: UCLA and WSU

Pac-12 Week 2 Predictions

Last week I was mostly right in my predictions for Pac-12 football games. Cal lost to Nevada at home...so I got that one wrong. Also, Oregon State's game with the mighty Nichols State down in Louisiana was postponed because of Hurricane Isaac...the team couldn't get to Corvallis for the game.

For the most part, Week 2 offers up more "pre-season" games for Pac-12 squads...with the exceptions of UCLA vs. Nebraska, UA vs. OK State and ASU vs. Illinois.

Here is what I think will happen...

Oregon vs. Fresno State in Eugene. Ducks dominate again...win 41-20 with the Fresno 20 coming in the second half or late in the game when the UO is playing its second and third string.

Washington vs. LSU in Baton Rouge. UW could only score 14 points on offense against San Diego State in their opener last week. They'll have to do MUCH better vs. LSU to have a chance, but that won't happen and LSU will win by the score of 42-10.

Washington State vs. Eastern Washington. An easy win for WSU, right? No, I don't think so. I do think they'll win however by the score of 21-16.

Arizona vs. Oklahoma State in Tucson. Last year the Cowboys beat up on Arizona in Stillwater. I think they will win again even those this game is at home for the Wildcats. OK State 31-14 over Arizona.

Illinois vs. ASU in Tempe. Not sure on this one. I'll go with Illinois in a close one...21-20.

USC vs. Syracuse in New Jersey. Not even close...USC 44-10 over the Orangemen.

UCLA vs. Nebraska in LA. UCLA beat Rice and Nebraska defeated Southern Miss in a pair of tune-up games last week. Home field gives the Bruins some hope, but again with UCLA...until I actually see it on the field of play vs. a good team, I won't believe the annual hype around the squad from Westwood. Nebraska 36-17.

Cal vs. Southern Utah at Berkley. Hmmm. I was pretty sure Cal would beat Nevada at home last week. I was wrong. None the less, I think they'll be ready to go and beat Southern Utah. I say they get on track to the tune of a 28-10 win.

Stanford vs. Duke in Palo Alto. Stanford had a trickier time than I thought with San Jose State last week, but - like Cal - I think they'll be able to defeat a weaker opponent this week and win 24-6.

Oregon State vs. Wisconsin in Corvallis. OSU is not as bad as people think, and the Badgers are not as good as people think with Russell Wilson now in the NFL. But, "the other UW" wins comfortably by the score of 27-13.

Colorado vs. Sacramento State in Boulder. CU is not a good team. Sac State is worse...they lost big to New Mexico State last week. Buffs get the win, 21-9.

Utah vs. Utah State in Logan, Utah. A few years ago this would be a laugher with everyone assuming the Utes would win. But, State has come a long ways...just not far enough to win vs. an improving Utah team. Utes 29-13 victors.