College Football National Championship Game Prediction

#2 Oregon vs. #4 Ohio State
January 12 at 5 p.m. Pacific
AT&T Stadium
Arlington, TX
TV: ESPN

What's At Stake: 
Very simply and most importantly, the winner of the game is the 2014 college football champion. For Oregon, this would be their first national title in football - a huge deal! For Ohio State it would be their 8th, the most recent other one being in 2002. Also big, but 2002 was not that long ago.

Also to consider - particularly if Oregon wins - is that this game will signal a break from the real or perceive "SEC dominance" in college football. Why? A couple reasons:

• First, look how poorly the SEC did in bowl games this season. SEC teams went 7-5 in bowls, and teams from the touted SEC West conference went 0-5 when up against quality non-conference foes. While 7-5 is a winning bowl record for the conference, it's also not great and all the "big time" teams lost. Over-rated. 

• Next, this will be the second year in a row that that the SEC will not have won the title. Yes, last year Auburn was in the game, but they did not win it. And why would the break be more pronounced if Oregon wins? Well, the Big 10 has a long tradition of OSU, Michigan, Penn State and Wisconsin (and to a lesser degree Iowa) being perennial big time, big stage teams that can win it all. The Pac-12? No. Outside of USC, it's been 23 years since any other league team won the national title (Washington) and even then it was a co-title with Miami. So, showing that a non-USC team from the west can win the title will really will show how things have migrated away from the SEC.

OREGON DUCKS
How they got here: The Ducks defeated defending national title holder Florida State in the Rose Bowl on New Years Day by the dominating score of 50-20, securing their place in the title game. Prior to that, they reached the "final four" of college football after reeling off a 12-1 record and a Pac-12 title with the only loss coming early in the season to a ranked Arizona squad and with a lot of injuries that had decimated the Ducks' offensive line.

Since the Rose Bowl: Starting WR Devon Allen injured his knee on the first play of the Rose Bowl and will not play against Ohio State. Also, Oregon announced the uniforms they will wear for the big game and, much to the disappointment of many Oregon fans, there is no green or yellow in them...they're all white with grey/silver accents.

Strengths: A fast, talented, deep and dangerous offense that runs at a rapid tempo to rack up yards and exhaust the opposing defense. And, this offense is operated by Heisman Trophy winning QB Marcus Mariota - equally deadly with his arm and legs. Also, the UO defense has really come on over the past few games to play more physical football and ramped up their already impressive ability to cause and get turnovers.

Weaknesses: It's hard to point out weaknesses in a team that has made it this far, but if I had to say it would be the linebackers. They played well against FSU (Rose Bowl) and Arizona (Pac-12 title game), but there is the potential for them to get pushed around by a big physical offensive line Hell bent on blowing holes open up the middle. Also, the Ducks just don't have a reliable kicker. It's a crap shoot any time UO lines up for a FG or extra point.

Opportunities: Use superior speed and size at RB and WR to hit the Buckeyes on the edges, over the middle and then long. On Defense, get pressure on the young OSU QB with a rush off the edge and force him to make mistakes. You think that's not possible? Ask Jamis Winston how things went in the Rose Bowl.

Players to Watch: #8 QB Mariota, #24 RB Tyner, #9 DE Armstead and any Oregon LB.

What Oregon Fans Say: This ain't the same team OSU played in the Rose Bowl a few years back. We've got more talent, more size, more speed and a much better QB. OSU will not be able to match us for a full 60 minutes. Get ready Buckeyes, it's coming.

Oregon Fans' Secret Fear: A repeat of the 2010 Rose Bowl against OSU in which a) the Buckeyes did indeed "out-physical" Oregon, b) the Ducks made big mistakes (fumbled a sure-fire, take-the-lead TD away for example), c) the Buckeyes QB had the game of his career...all adding up to a 9 point loss for the Ducks. All that, or the game comes down to a field goal.

OHIO STATE BUCKEYES
How they got here: The Buckeyes upset #1 Alabama in the Sugar Bowl by the score of 42-35 on New Years Day to secure their spot in the title game. They made it into the football playoff with a 12-1 record that was notable for the fact that they did a lot of it with their backup QB following their starter going down in pre-season with an injury...and now their third string QB at the helm following his predecessor also going down with an injury. Lets put it this way, the title game will be the Buckeye QB's third career college start.

Since the Rose Bowl: Nothing to report as far as I can tell. No big injuries.

Strengths: Big offensive and defensive lines, a 1,600 yard RB, great depth at WR and (obviously QB) and an opportunistic defense.

Weaknesses: Again, it's difficult to find a true weakness in a final-two team, but I'll go with they are perhaps not as fast and athletic as Oregon's squad and their QB - for all his impressive play in two games - is indeed making this third start and it's against the fastest and biggest turnover-making D he'll have seen.

Opportunities for OSU: Establish a running game up the gut and off tackle given the aggressive nature of the Oregon DEs and the relatively smaller size of Duck LBs. If they can do that, look out. Conversely, if the Ohio State defensive front can get a push up the middle against Oregon's offensive line, they can disrupt Oregon's offense...think about what Auburn did to the Ducks in the 2011 Title Game.

Players to Watch: On offense, watch QB #12 Jones, RB #15 Elliot. On defense, watch the line play...are OSU players pushing the Oregon line backwards? Are they getting sacks?

What Ohio State Fans Say: We're bigger and stronger than Oregon and we will beat them just like we did in the 2010 Rose Bowl. Duck fans, get ready to be run over.

Buckeye Fans' Secret Fear: Oregon "does a Rose Bowl" on the Buckeyes, suddenly turning a close game into a blowout in the third or fourth quarter.

HOW THIS GAME WILL UNFOLD
I think this game is going to go just about like every other game Oregon has played this season. It will be close in the first half with one team ahead by a small amount (10 or less) at the break. OSU will have success on both sides of the ball and Oregon's offense will sputter a bit in the beginning. And then, in the second half, Oregon will assert itself with adjustments. Their offense will score fast and the defense will create a turnover or two. In the end, I think it'll be lower scoring than the Rose or Sugar Bowls, but I do think the Ducks will win pulling away.

SCORE
I say it'll be UO 37-OSU 24.

2015 Rose Bowl Prediction

#2 Oregon vs. #3 Florida State
January 1 at 2 p.m. Pacific
Rose Bowl Stadium
Pasadena, CA
TV: ESPN

What's At Stake: 
The winner: 1) is Rose Bowl champion, and 2) goes on to play in the national championship game against the winner of #1 Alabama vs. #4 Ohio State.

OREGON

2014 season recap: The Ducks  racked up a 12-1 record in 2014. Mostly, they rolled the teams they played. Save the one Oct. game against Arizona (a close loss) and the game right before that against WSU (a close win), the Ducks put the hurt on the teams they matched up against. Those earlier close ones can mostly be attributed to offensive line injuries. That, and the Duck D seemed to take the "bend but don't break/keep it all in front of you" strategy to an extreme. More positively, Oregon beat currently and at-the-time ranked teams, including: Michigan State, UCLA, Utah and Arizona  in the league title game. They also beat Washington (a team with three All-Americans on their defense) soundly and for the 11tth year in a row. I would summarize the Ducks as such: wicked potent offense with the best QB in the nation + a ton of talent all over the field complemented by a fast but frustrating "don't give up the big play" defense that at times is super frustrating to watch. But, that combination delivered 12 wins.
Since the end of the season: There have been two big developments for the Ducks since they won the Pac-12 title game - one good, one bad. On the upside, QB Marcus Mariota won the Heisman Trophy as the best player in college football this season. The negative is that Oregon's All-American cornerback, Ifo Ekpre-Olomu injured his knee in practice and will not be able to play in the Rose Bowl.
Strengths: The Ducks have all to the pieces in place on offense to move the ball on the ground and through the air...and put up points. Also, the Ducks seem to find turn overs. And, speed on special teams means they can break one any time.
Weaknesses: Oregon does not field a defense that is just going to shut a team down. Yes, they did do that to Arizona in their last game and at key times against UCLA and Michigan State. But, that was not the norm across the entire season. All told, teams can work the ball down the field pretty easily on Oregon. Also, the Ducks do not have a field goal kicker that it can rely on outside of about 20 yards...and even then it's a nervous moment for Duck fans.
Opportunities: Oregon's offense can exploit an FSU defense that has not seen thee speed, tempo and talent at QB and RB that the Ducks bring. Special teams - particularly punt returns - could be magic.
Players to watch: On offense, #8 Mariota of course. Also keep an eye on the entire offensive line and how well #21 RB Freeman is running the ball. On defense, how much of a rush does the Oregon defensive line get? See how #9 Armistead does in getting to the QB and how does the now-depleted secondary fare against FSU's passing game? On special teams, watch speedy returner #6 Nelson.
What Oregon fans say: FSU plays in a weak league and has barely escaped many times this season. In the Pac-12 they would have lost several games. FSU QB Winston is an interception throwing machine...and the Ducks feast on turnovers. Oh, and good luck stopping the Oregon offense for four quarters.
Oregon fans' secret fear: FSU QB Winston picks apart the Oregon secondary on the way to multiple scores while their D line slows down the Mariota machine on offense. That, or the game comes down to a filed goal attempt by the Oregon kicker.

Florida State
2014 season recap: The Seminoles' season was basically a series of "great escapes" in which they fell behind in the first half and then came back in the second half to win...usually by a narrow margins. Throw in some easy wins over weak ACC teams and they ended at 13-0. Their marquee wins were against ranked Clemson, Louisville and Georgia Tech squads. Their offense runs the ball decently, but earns its yards and points by QB Winston throwing the ball. He has a talent for firing the ball into narrow windows, but sometimes (all too often for FSU fans) those balls are picked off. But hey, they've won 29 games in a row. On defense, the Seminoles do let teams score. They gave up 31 to Oklahoma State, 41 to NC State, 27 to Notre Dame and 31 to Louisville. So, we're not talking about an SEC-style/shut-down D here. But again...two straight undefeated seasons.
Since the end of the season: Not much news...which is good for a squad that has had some players get into trouble off the field.
Strengths: On offense, clearly QB Winston is a leader and can throw the ball really well. On defense, their line is big and athletic. And, they have a very good place kicker.
Weaknesses: FSU's defense is susceptible to the spread offense, a fast tempo and a mobile QB. Guess what Oregon does? Also, QB Winston does throw too many interceptions.
Opportunities: Throwing the ball to move it down the field against Oregon's "keep it in front of us" defense (now also minus its best cover man due to injury), having their big defensive linemen disrupt running lanes and making Oregon's QB scramble. The ability to win the game with a long field goal.
Players to watch: On offense, #5 QB Winston, tight end #85 O'Leary and #80 receiver Greene. On defense, I say watch the FSU line play. Are they getting into the Oregon backfield regularly? Are they making Oregon's QB to scramble and denying Duck RBs the ability to get to the corner?
What FSU fans say: We're current national champs - you are not. We've won 29 in a row - you have not. Oregon plays in the weak Pac-12 and have never seen the size, speed and aggressiveness of this FSU team.
FSU fans' secret fear: Oregon rips FSU for 50+ points aided by QB Winston throwing multiple interceptions...and no amount of second half heroics matter.

How It Will Unfold
Considering all of the above, here is how I think this game will go...

First Quarter
FSU has success stopping the rusty Oregon offense while the FSU O moves the ball through the air with short, efficient passes that reduce the chances of Winston throwing an interception - and they score a TD early. Oregon fans' worst fears are being realized. FSU's "ball control" keeps Oregon's offense off the field and the Ducks off the scoreboard...for the moment. However, Oregon's D stiffens and holds the Seminoles twice to field goals.

Score at the end of the first quarter: FSU 13-UO 0

Second Quarter
Oregon gets its running game going and makes FSU pay for over-aggressively rushing Mariota. The Ducks get a score. Winston throws a pick and the Ducks convert into a FG. Yes, a FG by Oregon. But, FSU strikes again for another TD by throwing long against the guy replacing Oregon's All-American CB Ekpre-Olomu.

Score at halftime: FSU 20-UO 10

Third Quarter
The Ducks get a great kick return the first time they touch the ball in the second half - setting up a TD pass from Mariota. Oregon's defense comes out with some adjustments that puts more pressure on Winston - making him throw poorer passes and getting sacked a few times. With this comes a couple more possessions for Oregon's offense - and a FG and TD. FSU eeks out a FG during the quarter.

Score at the end of the third quarter: UO 27-FSU 23

Fourth Quarter
Oregon fumbles the ball in their own end and FSU converts into a TD, taking the lead again. However, the Ducks come right back and score quickly. Now, it's down to who can stop who? I say three-plus quarters of Oregon's offensive attack starts to take its toll on FSU's defensive players and Oregon's offense hits the accelerator - scoring twice. Meanwhile, FSU becomes desperate as time is running out...they get a TD. It's UO 41-FSU 37 with a couple minutes left.

FSU makes a mistake...a fumble, a pick, failing to convert of fourth down. This seals the deal for them. Oregon takes advantage to win, and even scores one more before the clock runs out.

Final Score
UO 48-FSU 37

Pac-12 Football: 2014 Final Standings + League Title Prediction

What a season! Great games, upsets, road teams winning, Hail Mary victories, a front-runner Heisman candidate, a player named Scooby and great performances from a lot of players.

In total I went 64-19 in predicting winners of Pac-12 games this season. That's a 70% rate of success. Pretty good.

Below is how I thought the standings would be at the end of the season and then how they actually turned out. And below that is how I think the Pac-12 Title Game will go.

NORTH DIVISION

Here is how I predicted the teams in this division would finish...

1. Oregon
2. Stanford 
3. Oregon State 
4. UW 
5. WSU
6. Cal 

Here is how they actually finished...

1. Oregon (11-1, 8-1)
2. Stanford (7-5, 5-4)
3. UW (8-5, 4-5) 
4. Cal (5-7, 3-6)
5. WSU (3-9, 2-7)
6. Oregon State (5-7, 2-7)

I got the first two and fifth place correct, but otherwise it was a jumble with UW and Cal performing a bit better than I thought and Oregon State a lot worse. Overall, despite some good games, this division ended up being Oregon and then everyone else. The Ducks swept every school...and, other than WSU, by a lot of points.

Game of the season: Oregon beats Stanford, stopping a two season skid against the Cardinal and latching onto the North Division lead for good. 

Next: All this puts Oregon into the Pac-12 title game Friday.

SOUTH DIVISION
Here is how I predicted the teams in this division would finish...

1. UCLA
2. USC
3. ASU
4. UA
5. Utah
6. CU

Here is how they actually finished...

1. UA (10-2, 7-2) 
2. UCLA (9-3, 6-3) 
3. ASU (9-3, 6-3)
4. USC (8-4, 6-3)
5. Utah (8-4, 5-4)
6. CU (2-10, 0-9) 

I got spots 3, 5 and 6 correct. But, Arizona played much better than I thought they would with a new QB and replacing some key players on both sides of the ball. Meanwhile, UCLA under-performed...I bought into the annual UCLA hype this year and should not have. And USC had an OK year, but not as good as their talent would suggest.

Game of the season: Way too many to pick just one. But, I'll try...ASU beats UCLA in the last game of the regular season. This eliminates the Bruins from winning the South Division and catapults UA into that position.

Next: These results put Arizona into the Pac-12 title game Friday.

Pac-12 TITLE GAME - Dec. 5, 2014 

Oregon Ducks vs. Arizona Wildcats in Santa Clara, CA at 6 p.m. Pacific 
By virtue of its better record, Oregon is the "home" team, but this is a neutral site match up.

This is obviously a compelling game. Here are several reasons why...

Oregon: If they win, not only will they re-capture the league title for the first time in three seasons, but they will be a lock to get into the four-team national championship playoff. And that would likely be in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1. Oh, and barring a bad game, QB Mariota is probably your 2014 Heisman Trophy winner. And if all that wasn't enough for the Ducks to be motivated, Arizona is the team that gave them their one loss earlier in the season...so revenge will be a factor. If Oregon loses, for the third season in a row they will be relegated to the odd situation of being second banana in a league they dominated. Sure, they'll still probably get a decent bowl, but no playoff and no Heisman.

Arizona: These are heady days for Arizona's football program. Sure, by all rights they should have lost to UW and were only saved by a super bone headed coaching decision by Washington to not "take a knee" at the end of that game. But, they now have a chance to win their first Pac title ever. That is their motivation. That and of course trying to show their earlier victory over UO was not a fluke. If they beat the favored Ducks, they'll have an outside shot at the playoff (depending on what else happens nationally) but more likely a sweet New Years Day bowl. If they lose, they drop to a being a three-loss team and while they will go bowling and probably still be ranked, it'll be quite a bit less of a season for them.

Big Picture: How Oregon does in this game will have a direct impact on which schools are in the four team national title playoff. If the Ducks win, they're in...locking up one of the four spots. If they lose, then another school will get in.

What do I think will happen in this game?

I think Oregon will win this time against Arizona. It'll be a hard fought, tough game for a half...maybe even three quarters. Arizona will put points on the board, sure. But, this time around Oregon will pull away and win by a couple scores. Why do I think this? A few reasons:

1) Oregon has a healthy offensive line this time. Due to a wave of injuries, in October they were starting walk ons and Freshmen at most spots on the line against UA. It showed. The running game was extremely limited, Mariota was hurried and sacked a lot and the Ducks were unable to take advantage of the aggressive Arizona defense. Additionally, key defensive players left the game because of injury too. It was still a very close game, but the Ducks could not do enough to win. However, since getting many/most their starters back on the line...

2) Oregon's offense has ramped up considerably and they are hitting on all cylinders. Loads of talent and experience all over the field. This time, I expect the Ducks to make Arizona pay for their aggressive play on defense with more yards, more first downs and more points.

3) Oregon's defense has steadily improved. In the defeat to Arizona they looked lost and unprepared. Horrible to be honest. Since then they've gotten better and better each week - particularly at linebacker. Arizona feasted on the short pass over the middle or to the flat followed by long runs by the receiver. That was poor linebacker play...something that has greatly improved since. Also, the Ducks have gotten a much better pass rush since the loss. And I highly doubt there will be any stupid "unsportsmanlike conduct" penalties for celebration such as the one that created the Arizona drive that cost the Ducks the earlier game with Arizona.

My prediction is that these three factors will be clearly on display and will add up to an Oregon win:

Oregon 45-UA 28

Ducks Go Full Retro for UW Game

If the annual rivalry between Oregon and Washington football has lacked a bit of spark over the past 10 years becasue the Ducks have doled out 10 beat downs in a row, well, the UO just provided it.

To mark the 20th anniversary of "The Pick" by UO cornerback Kenny Wheaton, Oregon unveiled the throwback uniforms they'll wear this weekend against the Huskies.

Oregon Retro Uniforms for Game Oct 18, 2014

As a Duck fan, this is AWESOME! Those uniforms were great and the win against UW back in 1994 set in motion a run to a Pac-10 title and Rose Bowl appearance that year and a whole lot of change in Oregon football (and athletics generally) after that...giving rise to what we have now.

And of course, UO fans will revel in the uniforms and the exhilaration of "Wheaton is gonna score!" all while hoping to Hell the Ducks prevail once again. After all, if you lose wearing these uniforms and all they stand for - at minimum you look a bit foolish and at maximum you actual tarnish the history some. Not much, but some.

If I was a Husky fan, I'd be pissed off. This is a direct slap in the face...rubbing Dawg noses in not only the dramatic pick-six but also the 20 year dominance of UO over UW (15-4 since 1994). 

And hence the spark the rivalry needs. You can be sure the Seattle media will cover this angle - reminding all Dawg fans of that fateful day 20 years ago and amping them up with a bloodthirsty desire for revenge.  

Oregon Retro Uniforms for Game Oct 18, 2014

Ironically, the players on both sides probably don't care too much one way or the other as they were either babies or not even born back in 1994.

Yes, both teams want to win the game bad, but for their own reasons this season and not because of what happened two decades ago...and they are certainly not motivated by what one team will wear.

No, this weekend UO players are more or less just indulging Oregon fans by donning the retro gear. 

Meanwhile, UW players don't have any memory of those uniforms either. To them its just some new combo in the ever changing lineup of colors and designs trotted out by Oregon. 

How will all this play out? Well, check back Thursday for my Pac-12 predictions post. 

In the meantime, check out my personal UO vs. UW football history post from this week.

A Decade of Duck Dominance - Oregon, Washington

It's that week of the college football season. If you live in Washington or Oregon, you know what I mean. It's the week the University of Oregon and University of Washington football teams square off in a bitter, bitter boarder rivalry.

Hate and war...at least among the fan bases.

As a UO grad who grew up in Seattle and who lives there now, it's also a week that determines how much crap I'll get from UW fans for the following twelve months. This year, the plan is to gather with a mixed group of UO and UW friends to watch the game at a local pub. We'll see how that goes!

As we collectively prep for the big game, I thought I'd take a few minutes for a pre-emptive strike against my UW "friends" to remind them how lop-sided the "rivalry" has been recently.

First, historically Washington owns the advantage in the overall record of the rivalry. Give them their due. Stretching back over the past 114 years, UW has won 58 of the games to 43 for Oregon. There have been five ties over the years too. The long stretches of UW dominance over the decades is what built up the bitterness among Oregon fans for Washington football. Or, more accurately, hate for Washington football fans. Yep. The unmitigated arrogance and condescending attitude from many UW fans is why it was so sweet when the Ducks won in 1994 on the famous Kenny Wheaton interception and why regularly kicking Husky butt nowadays is such a pleasure.

Speaking of which, over the past 20 years Oregon has won 15 of the battles with Washington while UW has won four. The teams didn't play in 2001. And over the last 10 years it's been 100% all Oregon winning the games - all by substantial margins. Right now, the compelling nature of this game every year is if, when, where and how will Washington win again. My prediction is not this year. Their best shot is going to be in 2015.

Below is a re-cap of the "decade of Duck dominance" with games I personally attended marked with a *. I've added a few recollections too.

2013 in Seattle*. UO 45-UW 24. As a Seattle resident, I remember hearing many in the Seattle sports media saying that UW really had a great chance to win and probably would. So much so that I actually started believing them and was nervous about it. I need not have worried. Oregon QB Marcus Mariota had a huge day, throwing three TD passes and 366 yards through the air. He ran for 88 yards and a TD as well. This game was close through the first half, then snowballed in Oregon's favor in the second half. A friend and I sat in the Oregon section way, way, way up in the rafters of the renovated Husky Stadium. Oh, and the only crap I received from a UW fan was pretty weak...before the game in "The Zone" eating and drinking area a very inebriated UW student walked up to me and slurred out, "Your shirt fucking sucks." He stood there droopy eyed and repeated his statement, expecting me to react. I just ignored him. He eventually shambled away.

2012 in Eugene. UO 52-UW 21. This was the first boarder rivalry game played by UO QB Mariota. He did well, throwing for four TDs. The Oregon D also had a "pick six" off UW QB Keith Price.

2011 in Seattle*. UO 34-UW 17. This turned out to be the "closest" game across the ten year stretch of consecutive Duck wins. It was also a night game and the last to be played in the old Husky Stadium before the renovation project was to begin. Note, not the last Oregon vs. Washington game before the remodel...no, the last game ever in the old structure. What happened? Oregon won. That's what. UO RB LaMichael James had a big night running the ball. I sat in the old west end-zone section with Oregon fans. This was one of the worst places to watch a game at old Husky Stadium because of how far you are from the action. And, it's why UW allocated that section for visitors tickets.

I recall going out on the concourse at halftime and witnessing two incidence of abuse by UW fans. First, standing in line to get a hot dog...all of a sudden a body comes flying into my back, making me stumble forward. Turns out, a UW fan had shoved an Oregon fan and that fan fell into me. Wheeling around, I saw that the offending person was young and clearly drunk. He wanted to fight anyone not wearing purple. Some cooler-headed Husky fans somehow got him out of there before security showed up. The next thing that happened was standing in line to use the restroom. The way Husky Stadium was constructed at the time was that fans with seats at the very top of the U-shaped west end zone section could turn around and look directly down on the concourse. It happened that a drunk 50-something UW fan had done just that and was shouting abuse at Oregon fans as we waited in line to go to the restroom. Between his stream of profanity, he peppered in the line "win a Rose Bowl." (Oregon did that just a few weeks later by the way.) I fully expected this guy to throw something on us or spit at us because we were sitting "ducks" in line there. He didn't. But, all the guys in the line with me - UO and UW fans alike - agreed that you don't want to be that guy...middle age, drunk, swearing and spewing hate at people about college football.

2010 in Eugene. UO 53-16. After a 0-0 score at the end of the first quarter, UW fans had reason to be hopeful. With Jake Locker out, young backup Keith Price played QB for Washington...and looked pretty good all day long. But, reality hit in the second quarter and another wipe-out of Washington ensued. I watched this one at home in Seattle. I remember thinking I was glad not to have made the trip because it wasn't much of a game and the weather was bad down there in Eugene.

2009 in Seattle*. UO 43-UW 19. A game played on a wonderfully sunny fall afternoon. We took the party boat from Ballard to Husky Stadium wearing our Oregon gear. Dawg fans were good natured on the ride before the game, silent to us on the way back. I met KJR sports radio personality Mike Gastineau on the boat. Nice guy. Oh, and the game wasn't close...again. I recall Locker throwing an interception just as it looked like UW might get into the game with a score. All downhill for them after that.

2008 in Eugene.* UO 44-UW 10. This was a night game and an early outing for new UW QB Jake Locker. Meanwhile, it was also the debut at QB for Oregon's Jeremiah Masoli. Even the home PA announcer didn't know how to pronounce Masoli's last name (it's Mah-sOH-Lee). UW would go on to win exactly zero games the rest of the 2008 season. A friend and I went down for the game. We spent the sunny, hot afternoon perched outside on the patio at Taylor's near campus...which was a lot of fun.   Eventually, some other UW fan friends from Seattle joined us for the walk over to the stadium. Which left me as a lone Oregon fan amongst 3-4 Husky buddies. This proved not to be great for us as we somehow fell in with some young, amped up and drunk Oregon fans who a) were eager to give maximum shit to any UW fan, and b) did not appreciated that I, as an Oregon fan, was walking with Washington fans to the game. You can read about that episode and my reaction to it in my post titled "There's An A-Hole In Every Crowd (Sometimes Two)."

2007 in Seattle.* Oregon 55-UW 34. This was the game where UW fans cheered mightily on a play where they thought Washington's defense has stuffed a run up the middle only to realize to their horror that the Oregon QB, Denis Dixon, had actually pulled the ball out and was running unabated down the sideline for a score. UO running back, and Tacoma-area native, Jonathan Steward had a great day too...rushing for 251 yards.

2006 in Eugene. UO 34-14. Anyone remember who was the starting UW QB that day? Carl Bonnell. Me neither. This was the third year in a row the game was played in Eugene - an anomaly of scheduling and not some secret conspiracy to "screw" the UW. Washington fans like to forget there were stretches where the UO vs. UW game was played in connective years in Seattle - 1989-1991 for example. All Husky wins by the way.

2005 in Eugene*. UO 45-UW 21. A big day for Oregon QB Kellen Clemens and another big win for the Ducks. This was a game that a friend of mine and I did the whole trip from Seattle to Eugene and back in one day...a very LONG day. But, it was a longer day for my friend as he is a Husky fan. I also recall a funny episode at Taylor's bar before the game. We stopped in for some food and pre-game libations. My friend was wearing his UW shirt, bravely advertising he was a "enemy" fan. At one point a lovely young UO student (I am assuming she was a student) decked out in Oregon colors came up to us and fanned out a series of flyers - each with the headline "Famous Huskies" or something like that. On each was a different UW grad who, shall we say, aren't the best people - Ted Bundy, Jeremy Stevens and various other UW players who had been convicted of crimes. I think she gave my friend a choice of which one he could take. We all had a laugh.

2004 in Eugene. UO 31-UW 6. UO QB Clemens had a great day as the world was treated to the "all-neon-yellow" UO uniforms. If I recall, this game was actually NOT on TV in Seattle. A friend and I listed to it on the radio. Remember those days when games were not on TV?

And there we have it. The last 10 meetings. The two years prior, 2003 and 2002, Washington won impressively 44-14 and 42-10 respectively. Ah yes, the early 2000s. Before Facebook, iPods, Twitter, smart phones. Even the oldest players on UW were in middle school the last time the Huskies prevailed.

UW vs. UO...It's Been a Long Time

It's been a loooooong time since the University of Washington football team has beaten the University of Oregon on the football field. Nine years. Almost a decade.

This weekend's game is shaping up to be the Husky's best chance in the past 10 years to pull off a victory against the Ducks. Will they? Hard to say. They're not favored and the Ducks are awfully good. But, the game is at home for UW and the team is better than it has been in the last nine years.

But nine years is a long time.

To give you an idea of how long it's been since the last UW victory in this border war, cast your mind way back to a distant time called 2003. That's right, that's the last time the Huskies prevailed on the gridiron against the Ducks.

Got that timeframe in your mind?

OK, here are technologies now common in everyday life in the USA that were not around in 2003:

• Facebook - launched the next year.
• iPhones and iPads - still a few  years away.
• Twitter - did not exist.
• YouTube - that's right. No YouTube when the Dawgs beat UO last.
• BlueRay DVDs - oh, how did we ever watch non-HD movies at home!
• Kindle - or eReaders of any kind had not yet been introduced.
• Digital cameras - Ok, they existed, but they were no where near as pervasive as they are now, and they certainly weren't on people's mobile phones.

Imagine life without any of those things. Barbaric. (Kidding, but still...you get the idea.) In any case, all of those things have come to pass and into our lives since UW beat Oregon in football.

All right, how about pop culture? Back in 2003...

• Lance Armstrong was still winning multiple Tour de France races and hailed as a hero by everyone (except the French...it didn't take doping charges to make them hate Lance).
• Martha Stewart had yet to be convicted of insider trading.
• Janet Jackson had not yet to have her "wardrobe malfunction" at the Super Bowl
• Shamwow! and the Snuggie - not. yet. invented.
• Zumba - not around. Just saying.
• The TV show Lost - had not started yet.

And on and on. So much has come to pass in the nine years since the UW came out winners against Oregon in football. So much.

And guess what? It's more than likely the Ducks will make it "a decade of dominance" with a win Saturday in Seattle. I'm not saying for sure they'll win, but I think it's likely. I'll be there to ether witness the turning of that decade or the downfall of the streak. Should be fun!

Week 5 Pac-12 Predictions

And now it begins. Yes, league play. No more cream puffs to practice on.

Here is what I think will happen this week...

Oregon (3-0, 0-0) vs. Cal in (1-2, 0-0) Eugene. Oregon will win this one. If this was at Cal I'd say you never know 'cause I have seen some CRAZY things happen to the Ducks when they play in Berkely. But this one's in Oregon...at night. UO 44-Cal 20.

Washington (3-0, 0-0) vs. Arizona (3-0, 0-0) in Seattle. OK, the Huskies have it going, but they've played poor competition so far. UA is a much stiffer challenge. This one is in Seattle and with the Dawgs getting the hang of their new O, I think they will come out on top in a high scoring game. UW 49-UA 44.

WSU (3-1, 1-0) vs. Stanford (3-0, 0-0) in Pullman. Nice start for the Cougs so far this season. Hope springs eternal that WSU will win at least six and get to a bowl game. But one of those wins won't be this weekend. Stanford rolls up the Cougars. Stanford 33-WSU 17.

Oregon State (3-1, 1-0) vs. Colorado (2-0, 0-0) in Corvallis. Hmmm. Interesting matchup. An over achieving Buffalos squad and an underachieving OS team. Could go either way. I'll go with the home team. OS 24-CU 10.

USC (3-1, 0-1) vs. ASU (2-1, 0-1) in Tempe. Two teams questioning where they're at so early in the season. I think ASU has a shot here. I'll pick them to win. ASU 28-USC 24.

Utah and UCLA have the weekend off.

Pac-12 Week 3 Predictions

Wow. That was a pretty dang good weekend for the Pac-12 last Saturday. WSU upset USC in LA in the first league game, Oregon blew out Virginia on the road, Oregon State notched a win, Cal got a scare from Portland State but put them away in the end and Stanford finally got into action with a win.

With most teams still playing out-of-conference games this week, what will happen? Here's what I think...

#2 Oregon (2-0 overall, 0-0 in league play) vs. Tennessee in Eugene. Pac-12 vs. SEC...in the Northwest! What? SEC teams are notorious for a) not playing challenging out-of-conference games, and b) not traveling outside the south to play out-of-conference games. So, big kudos to the Vols for coming to Eugene in return for the Ducks playing in Tennessee a couple years ago. How will this one go? I predict the Ducks will win - moving to 3-0 entering league play. But, I don't think it will be the blowout that the last two weeks have been. I think Tennessee has some great athletes and will challenge Oregon some. I say UO 31-Tenn 20.

#20 Washington (1-0, 0-0) vs. Illinois in Chicago. Is UW for real? Was the win vs. Boise State last week a preview of a newly blossomed powerhouse? Or, was that more chalked up to the emotion of opening the new stadium and the fact that Boise is, in reality, not that good...they've said goodbye to 13 starters from last season. Well, the road will be a good test for the Huskies and provide some indication. Illinois is not a world-beater, but they are a Big 10 team and this is on the road in Chicago. I think the Huskies get it done though. UW 27-Illinois 17.

Oregon State (1-1, 0-0) vs. Utah (2-0, 0-0) in Salt Lake City. Neither team has played high quality opponents and both teams are suspect. I think Utah may win this one, but I'll give the nod to OS as I think they have superior tallent on both sides of the ball. Oregon State 19-Utah 10.

WSU (1-1, 1-0) vs. Southern Utah in Pullman. How about them Cougs!? Not only did they upset USC in L.A., but they held the Trojans to seven points. Wow. Who knew the WSU defense was up to that? And who knew USC's normally potent offense would be so anemic? Either way, the Cougs got a big one and will continue their roll with a big win over Southern Utah. WSU 28-SU 9.

#5 Stanford (1-0, 0-0) vs. Army at West Point. The Cardinal beat up on a weak San Jose State team to open its season and gets only a slightly more difficult challenge this week. Stanford wins this one too. Stan 31-Army 6.

Cal (1-1, 0-0) vs. #3 Ohio State at Berkley. This is a real nice match-up. Don't underestimate Cal. They've been getting their "sea legs" under them with a new coach over the last couple weeks and have good talent on their roster. They've also already played a Big 10 school, Northwestern. Could they upset the highly ranked Buckeyes? Yes, they could. But they won't. Cal makes it interesting for a while but OSU wins. OSU 30-Cal17.

#18 UCLA (1-0, 0-0) vs. #22 Nebraska in Lincoln. Another good one! UCLA is on the road for this game. I call upset on this one. The Cornhuskers will win a close one. Neb 24-UCLA 21.

Arizona (2-0, 0-0) vs. University of Texas San Antonio in Tucson. This one won't be interesting or close. UA 49-UTSA 13.

Arizona State (1-0, 0-0) vs. Wisconsin in Tempe. A third Pac-12 vs. Big 10 match up for this weekend. I like it. While certainly Wisconsin could win it, I think ASU pulls it out at home...and perhaps pull away in the fourth quarter. ASU 41 - Wisc 27.

Colorado (2-0, 0-0) vs. Fresno State in Boulder. Check out Colorado at 2-0. Nice. Now they get the Bulldogs at home. As much as I'd like to see the Buffs move on to 3-0, I think reality returns this week and they drop this game to Fresno State. FSU 27-CU 17.

USC (1-1, 0-1) vs. Boston College in L.A. Hmmm. Not sure what to make of USC at this point. I'll go with the fact that this is in L.A. and, despite their start this season, USC is USC. I'll take the Trojans to win. USC 20-BC 14.

The Crap I've Heard Today from UW Fans

Among the sputtering, desperate utterings I heard from upset Husky fans on the radio and social media as they reacted to the light sanctions doled out today to Oregon by the NCAA included...

"Oregon football is irrelevant." Right. Perhaps the most head-in-the-sand remark of the day. Over the last 10 years, the Oregon football team has finished in the top 5-10 rankings consistently, won the league three times and tied for the title once, won the Fiesta Bowl twice, the Rose Bowl once and appeared in the National Title game...losing by 3 points on the very last play of the game.  That sounds pretty dang relevant to me. Oh, and they've beaten UW 9 years in a row. Now if nothing else, THAT should be relevant to UW fans.

"Oregon is nothing, go back to the 70s and 80s...they were horrible." Yes, that's true. It was also 30-40 years ago. UW...you're living in the past on this one again. Since the mid-1990s up and until today, the Ducks have been increasingly good and in the past 5 years...dominant, in particular over Northwest rivals UW, WSU and OSU.

"Oregon should 'do something' that people will remember before getting too cocky." This one is a not-so-thinly veiled brag by Dawg fans on the fact that they shared a national title back in 1991 with Miami and a reminder to Duck fans that UO has not won even half a title. OK, well how about winning three league titles in the last four seasons? Winning the Rose Bowl following the 2011 season? Winning the Fiesta Bowl this past January? Going 12-0 in 2010 and appearing in the National Title Game? That's pretty impressive. Those titles are "etched in history" just as much the UW's 1/2 title back in 1991.

"It's all Phil Knight and his money and influence that got UO off the hook." Really? Guess what Pac-12 school receives the most money annually from Nike? UO? No. Stanford, the other Pac-12 school Knight went to? No. Neither. The school getting the most money from Nike each year is...The University of Washington. So shut up.

"Oregon payed players." No. They didn't. Read the NCAA report.

"Oregon got a benefit on the field from its crooked recruiting activities." No. It didn't. Read the NCAA report. That, and it's just flat fact that nobody recruited in a way that the NCAA ruled against saw the field.

No, all of the above is weak, desperate crap from fans of a team that has hit real hard times for 10 plus years now. If UW was a very good football team OR if Oregon was not, these same UW fans would not be reacting nearly the way they are today. No, the sad truth for them is that their team has been average at best since the mid-1990s and pretty much in the tank over the last 5-6 seasons. And THAT is the true root of the comments today.

I for one am REALLY looking forward to the game in Seattle this coming season. Will the UW rise up and win a surprise upset? Or, will the Ducks steamroll the Dawgs for the 10th year in a row?

My guess. Neither. UO will win, but it'll be close. We'll see.

Duck Helmet for 2013 Spring Game?

Since Chip Kelly came on board as head football coach at UO in 2009, the week of the annual spring game for the University of Oregon Ducks also features a set of interactions with veterans with players donating time to local veteran organizations and on-field "tributes" to the military...typically in the form of special jerseys and after-game exchanges. 

While Kelly has moved on to the Philadelphia Eagles, it looks like this year the Ducks are not only going to continue their spring game tradition, but may be taking it to another level with a special helmet. 

Check it out...

We shall see.

Pac-12 Goes Bowling - Comments and Predictions

The Pac-12 bowl matchups are set for the 2012 season. I think the league has a very good shot at running the table in bowl season. The matchups just favor the Pac-12 teams.

Below is who is playing who in which bowls and a few thoughts on each game...

FIESTA BOWL - Oregon vs. Kansas State on Jan. 3

Oh boy. This could be a HIGH scoring game. Oregon's O is a wicked and multi-faceted TD scoring machine on hyper drive. KSU's offense is run by 2013's version of Cam Newton. In situations like this, it's usually the team with the stiffest (gets stops) and most opportunistic (gets turnovers) defense that ends up winning. I say that between the two of these squads, that's Oregon.

Oregon 47-KSU 36


ROSE BOWL - Stanford vs. Wisconsin on Jan. 1 You won't be able to tell which team is which because both have the exact same colors, field similar "big beefy" squads who play smash mouth football, and sport very similar uniform styles - including white helmets with a single red block letter on both sides.

Wisconsin is in their third straight Rose Bowl, having lost to Oregon last year and TCU the year before. I say the third time is the charm and that the big guys in red and white from the Midwest beat the big guys in red and white from the Bay Area.

Wisconsin 28-Stanford 24

SUN BOWL - USC vs. Georgia Tech on Dec. 31
USC had a disappointing season. The Sun Bowl ain't why QB Matt Barkley came back for his senior season. However, they are playing a team in Georgia Tech with a losing record. That's right. The Ramblin' Wreck sports a 6-7 record. They're in this bowl because they petitioned the NCAA on the grounds that they should not "penalized" by being left out of a bowl by reaching but losing the ACC championship game. No matter, USC will win this.

USC 38-GT 14

ALAMO BOWL - Oregon State vs. Texas on Dec. 29 This ought to be a good matchup and worth watching. OSU is much better than expected this season and any time you get a Pac-12 team vs. Texas...seems like it proves entertaining. (Note many Holiday Bowls from previous years.) I think the Beavers win this.

OSU 27 - UT 24

FIGHT HUNGER BOWL - Arizona State vs. Navy on Dec. 29Hmmm. Will anyone outside of the ASU campus and Navy personnel watch this? Probably not...or at least not too many. Will it be a good game? That's less known. ASU might dominate this thing or perhaps it'll be close. I'll say that the Sun Devils do accelerate away from the Midshipmen to win it.

ASU 47-Navy 20

HOLIDAY BOWL - UCLA vs. Baylor on Dec. 27
I'd say that outside of Oregon vs. Kansas State in the Fiesta Bowl, this is the best matchup for Pac-12 teams...likely to deliver a lot of scoring, dynamic athletes and "wow" plays. Like the Fiesta Bowl, the team with the better defense is likely to win, and that team is UCLA.

UCLA 48-Baylor 44

LAS VEGAS BOWL - Washington vs. Boise State on Dec. 22
This is a good matchup too, and I think we'll see both squads out to prove something. It's also interesting that these same two teams play again in their very first game of the 2013 season. If Kellen Moore was still QB at Boise, I'd say they will win. He's not. He's now in the NFL. I think Washington eeks out an entertaining win.

UW 28-BSU 22

Pac-12 Week 12 Predictions

Well, well, well...what a telling week in the Pac-12. After weeks of half guessing/half assuming we knew which teams were tops in the league, the truth came out finally this past Saturday. Oh how it was reveled...

Oregon lost in OT at home to a very tough Stanford team. We learned that no matter how good Oregon has been up to now, they are NOT as good as first thought and not the first or second best team in the land. Indeed...just like their experience with Ohio State in 2009, Auburn in 2010 and LSU in 2011...Oregon has difficulty with teams that field very big, very strong and fast offensive and defensive lines. Stanford has those. It was the difference in the game. That and, well, Oregon just does not have a place kicker it can trust to make normal field goals in the 35-45 yard range. If they did, they'd have won despite how everything else went. Oh well.

Meanwhile, the myth of USC's return to greatness came crashing down this weekend too as they were finally revealed for the middle of the pack (vs. just unlucky) team through their defeat to UCLA. That's right. UCLA. Sure, USC lost earlier in the season to Stanford and Oregon, but for sure they were going to and should have beat UCLA. They could not.

UCLA has put themselves into position to finally - FINALLY - move out of the "pretender" category and into contedor or champion category with a win vs. Stanford next week and an appearance in the league title game.

And finally, Stanford revealed that they may indeed be the best team in the league. Who would have thought that a few weeks ago when they were a mess and losing to UW?

Pac-12 BCS Situation

Oregon's loss to Stanford virtually eliminates any Pac-12 team from getting into the National Title game. There's a slim, slim chance that if  the now #5 Oregon finishes with just the one loss they may re-enter the running for the #2 spot in that game if others ahead of them lose. But that's really unlikely. Oregon could reach the Rose Bowl if they get some help from UCLA next weekend and the Bruins beat Stanford in LA. That would put the Ducks back into the Pac-12 title game (assuming UO can beat Oregon State next weekend too). Win that and their back in the Rose Bowl. And finally, if Oregon wins against the Beavers but does not make it to the Pac-12 title game because Stanford beats UCLA...the Ducks would still be highly ranked and with only one loss. It could be that one of the other BCS Bowls (Sugar, Fiesta, Orange) pick Oregon to play in their game. Not bad.

UCLA has already won the Pac-12 South. They are in the league title game Nov. 30. Win that and they are in the Rose Bowl. That's their shot at the BCS games.

Stanford can get into that Pac-12 title game if they beat UCLA next Saturday. Do that and then win the title game and they are in the Rose Bowl. That's their shot at the BCS games.

Pac-12 Week 12 Predictions
Games this week are spread across Friday and Saturday. The games Friday will serve as an appetizer for the big, league-defining games on Saturday.

Below, I've listed the Saturday games in order that they will appear on TV in Pacific time. You can see that if you have the day free, you can watch the conference standings finalize right before your very eyes.

Washington vs. WSU in Pullman (Friday). UW is playing well and they are clearly better than WSU. Like the Civil War in Oregon, the Apple Cup usually features weirdness. I think the only weird thing that will happen this year is the WSU will actually hang around in the first half, but in the end UW wins. UW 27-WSU 17.

Arizona vs. ASU in Tempe (Friday). Also-rans jockey for bowl position. Home team wins. ASU 41-UA 38.
Utah vs. Colorado in Boulder (Friday). Like a couple broken down old horses that need to taken back behind a barn and put out of their misery, the Utes and Buffs will wind down their 2012 season in this final game. Utah will win it. UU 27-CU 10.

Oregon vs. Oregon State in Corvallis (Saturday at 12 p.m.). First up on Saturday is the Civil War. Grab your lunch and a cold one and settle in for the first of three critical games. If the Ducks win, they still have a chance at the league title game and/or a BCS game at-large. If the Beavers win, the Ducks are out of the BCS mix completely. Hello Alamo Bowl. The Beavers are playing well and the game is in their stadium. They also have great wide receivers a la USC. But, the Ducks are coming off their one loss and should be angry and looking for redemption. And hey, they are still Oregon. I'm going to say that Oregon rebounds and pulls out a win 34-28.

Stanford vs. UCLA in L.A. (Saturday at 3:30 p.m.) OK, you just watched the Ducks win the Civil War (that's what I predicted afer all, right?), and now you're ready to see if Stanford can kill the Ducks chances for the league title and grab the glory for themselves with a win. Time to break out the mid-afternoon snacks.With the South already sewn up, will UCLA "show up" or roll over? Either way, I think Stanford is the better team and will be motivated to nail down their appearance in the Pac-12 title game. They win. Stanford 28-UCLA 21.   If things go the way I've predicted here, you'll then have a Stanford vs. UCLA re-match in Palo Alto the following weekend to determine the Pac-12 champ. The winner would go to the Rose Bowl. Oregon would then just have to wait a couple weeks to see if one of the other BCS bowl games picks them...and if they don't, again, hello Alamo Bowl.

USC vs. Notre Dame in L.A. (Saturday at 5 p.m.) And then finally, as the Stanford/UCLA game enters it's later stages, you can start to check in on this one to see if Notre Dame can stay undefeated and confirm their participation in the National Championship game or if they finally falter to a ticked off USC squad. I would have said "this is the game where ND loses." But, given how poorly USC has played recently, I now think the "Domers" will win this game. I say ND 22-USC 14.

NOTE: Cal has finished its season. They clocked in at 3-9 overall and 2-7 in league play. No bowl. See you in 2013.

Week 10 Pac-12 Predictions

Well, well, well...things are starting to be clarified in the Pac-12 and nationally. Big wins by Oregon and Oregon State this week really show them off to be - along with USC - the class of the league.

Meanwhile, Notre Dame was expossed a bit as a pretender by barely beating a weak Pitt team at home in tripple overtime...and they paid the price for that by dropping in the national rankings behind Oregon.

Below is my Pac-12 BCS update and predictions for next week's games...

Pac-12 BCS Situation
Oregon is in the driver seat. Win out and they'll very likely be in the title game vs. either Alabama or Kansas State. And hey, even if they "only" win the Pac-12 title, they'll be in the Rose Bowl.

Oregon State is looking pretty good for a BCS game too. If they win out and win the league title game, that will mean they beat Oregon and the South champ. If that happens, the Beavers would at minimum be in the Rose Bowl. It's also possible that the Beavers win all the rest of their games except Oregon, finish at 11-1 and get picked up for BCS game anyway - Rose bieng the likely one.

USC, ASU and UCLA all have shots at winning the South and appearing in the Pac-12 title game...and hence, in theory, a shot at the Rose Bowl.

What I think will happen this week...

Oregon vs. Cal in Berkley. At Cal is usually a tough one for Oregon. Not this year. Yes, it's the road and yes perhaps the Ducks are suseptable to the letdown after beating USC. But I'm going to say that Oregon is just too good to lose to a depleated and demotivated Cal. Ain't going to happen. UO 31- Cal 21.

Washington vs. Utah in Seattle. UW wins this one at home to get their third in a row and become bowl eligible. I say UW 24-UU 13.

Washington State vs. UCLA in Pullman. Demotivated WSU vs. schizophrenic UCLA. The Bruins are the better team and I think they'll win. UCLA 28-WSU 17.

Oregon State vs. Stanford at Palo Alto. Hmmm. Interesting game here. I'd like to think Stanford would take care of business at home, but the Beavers are playing well. I say OSU 26-Stanford 21.

USC vs. ASU in L.A. USC has lost two in a row. But they're still USC while ASU is, well, still ASU. Talent kills hype in this one. USC 41-ASU 24.

Arizona vs. Colorado in Tucson. Arizona blew the momentum gained by beating USC by not showing up vs. UCLA last weekend and losing big. But, they're still better than Colorado and will win. UA 31-CU 9.

Week 9 Pac-12 Predictions

Some surprises last weekend. USC lost to Arizona and UW beat Oregon State. Just goes to show you that as much as you think you know how things will go...you never know.

Here is my little BCS overview and Week 9 predictions...

Pac-12 BCS Bowl Situation
Some significant movement this week in the BSC situation...mostly not good for the Pac-12.

• #4 Oregon won once again, leaving them as one of four undefeated teams at the top of the rankings. But, once again, Oregon was not rewarded for their win while other around them in the ranks were. #1 Alabama won, #2 Florida lost, #3 Kansas State won and #5 Notre Dame won. So, Ducks should be #3 now, right? Wrong, the BSC now has Notre Dame skipping over Oregon to the #3 spot. Meanwhile Kansas State slides up to #2. Sigh. 
• Meanwhile, USC lost and they now have two league losses. That eliminates them from the National Title hunt and puts their chances for a league title and Rose Bowl berth in serious jeopardy. It also devalues any Oregon win over them a bit...which won't help Oregon's chances of moving up.
• Oregon State lost for the first time. This will virtually knock them out of any talk of a National Title appearance, but they are still alive for a league title and Rose Bowl with tough games coming up.

Oregon, Oregon State, USC, Arizona, UCLA and ASU all still have a shot at the league title and the Rose Bowl.

Other than that, opportunities for any other Pac-12 team for the league title are slim or none.

Oregon could get to the National Title game if it wins all the rest of its games and finishes 13-0. Or, they may still do that and be "relegated" to the Rose Bowl.

It is also possible that if Oregon wins all its games except the Civil War against Oregon State...it could possibly still appear in a BSC Bowl as an at-large selection with a 12-1 record. Oregon State would probably not in a similar scenario because they'd have two losses if they lose the Civil War.

We'll see what next week brings. Meanwhile, here's what I think will happen this week...

Oregon vs. USC in L.A. The big one. But it got a little less big last weekend with USC choking against Arizona. None the less, Oregon's hopes for a National Title run faces a significant test here. And, both teams have a lot to play for in terms of a shot at the league title and, at worst, the Rose Bowl berth that it would earn them. I think this will be a close game - no blowout. I think both squads present significant challenges against the other. I would not be shocked if USC won this game, but sitting here thinking about all the previous games for both teams this season, I think Oregon is a bit better overall and has more depth. So, I'm going to say Oregon 34-USC 27.

Oregon State vs. ASU in Corvallis. Toss up. ASU has the talent to win, OSU may be feeling deflated after their loss to UW. I just have a feeling ASU is going to come into this one and play well...and win. I say ASU 31-OSU 24.

Stanford vs. Colorado in Boulder. It just doesn't get any easier for Colorado following successive games against USC and Oregon. Now comes Stanford. Stanford 44-CU 17.

UW vs. Cal in Berkley. UW is feeling good. Cal is not. UW does not play well on the road. Cal is at home. Both teams are wildly inconsistent. Hmm. OK, I'll say UW reverts back to its road woes and Cal wins 24-17.

WSU vs. Utah in Salt Lake City. Neither team is impressive or all that fun to watch. I'll say UU 21- WSU 20.

UCLA vs. Arizona in L.A. "Fools Gold Bowl II." Both annual pretenders to the league crown. One will win and extend their fantasy one more week while the other will lose and fulfill their yearly dive to the lower reaches of the standings. I say Arizona finally takes their step forward and wins. UA 35-UCLA 22.

Pac-12 Week 8 Predictions

Learned last weekend: UW's offense is a turnover giving machine, USC looks less and less a menace every week and Oregon State is shaping up to be a real threat for the North and League title.

This week...

Oregon vs. ASU in Tempe. A tough road test for the Ducks in a Thursday night matchup. But, I think ASU is a bit over-rated. As with other UO games this season, I see a close one into the third...then boom! Look out. Ducks 41-ASU 24.

Oregon State vs. Utah in Corvallis. You'd think OSU would roll on with their momentum and beat the Utes handily at home. But I say they actually choke a bit in this one...but win. OSU 21- UU 20.

USC vs. Colorado in L.A. Not close. USC 48-CU10.

Stanford vs. Cal in Berkley. Strange to see this rivalry game in the middle of the season instead of at the end as normal. None the less, Stanford is better and smarting after that oh-so-close OT loss to ND last week. I think they rebound and win 23-17.

Washington vs. Arizona in Tucson. Washington gets a much needed win and does so on the road. UW 31-UA24.


Not Playing: UCLA and WSU

Pac-12 Week 7 Predictions

Well, we learned a few things last weekend in Pac-12 play. Among them:

1) Oregon is for sure the class of the league right now. Latest evidence: an absolute curb stomp of UW for the ninth year in a row. There seems to be a bunch of teams that could finish in second place, but nobody is matching the offensive AND defensive firepower of the Ducks.

2) Oregon State, while still a threat, may not be all they are cracked up to be. Latest evidence: struggling at home to be beat WSU.

3) UCLA is proving once again they are the college football equivalent of "fools gold." Latest evidence: losing to Cal.

4) Stanford is a Jeckle and Hyde squad. Latest evidence: after losing to UW in a low scoring affair two weeks ago, they follow up with a high scoring OT win vs. Arizona.

Looking forward to this coming week's games...

Washington vs. USC in Seattle. What to think? UW rebounds at home against a now suspect USC squad? Or, USC is USC and the come in a beat the Dawgs soundly. I'll go with the latter...USC 35-UW 17.

Oregon State vs. BYU in Provo. I'll go with the Beavers until proven otherwise. I will say this though, BYU is probably better than the WSU and UCLA teams OSU has beaten so far. It would not shock me if they lost this one, but I'll go OSU 24-BYU21.

WSU vs. Cal in Pullman. Cougs are done. Cal is coming off a win and no doubt look at this one as a way to get further back on track. I say they do...Cal 28-WSU 19.

Stanford vs. Notre Dame at ND. Could be a very good game. ND is over-rated, and Stanford is - as mentioned - different each week. I'll say they show up and upset ND. Stanford 28-ND 17.

ASU vs. Colorado in Boulder. ASU big. Sun Devils 44-CU 10.

UCLA vs. Utah in LA. A battle of pretenders. UCLA is at home and does have some weapons, so I'll pick them...UCLA 37 - Utah 21.




NOT PLAYING: Oregon, Arizona

Pac-12 Week 6 Predictions

Another good week in the Pac-12 just past. What we learned, at least from a Pac-12 North perspective...

Oregon is still looking good, undefeated and #2 in the land following their 3 TD+ win over WSU. But, but one wonders how they will fare against the likes of USC, Stanford and ASU...those teams ain't WSU.

Washington finally grew a pair on defense. They manned up and really played well against the big, straight ahead run game of Stanford...and won. However, most teams UW will play from here on out have far, far more diverse offenses, more speed and better QBs. So, live it up for now Dawg fans.

WSU is done. Well, in terms of a winning season and a bowl. They just don't have it folks. They might pick up a few wins along the way, but based on last week vs. Colorado (worst team in the league) and this week vs. Oregon (best team in the league), it's clear to me that the Cougs ain't going anywhere this season.

OSU is starting to look like a real power broker in the race for the Pac-12 North and overall Pac-12 title. Civil War should be fun!

OK, looking forward...

Oregon vs. Washington in Eugene. The Ducks have beaten the Dawgs eight seasons in a row, by a lot. My feeling is that this year, the Ducks will win again...and maybe even by 2-3 TDs...but it will be a close game into the fourth quarter. I will say UO 34-UW 21.

WSU vs. Oregon State in Corvallis. Is Oregon State the real deal or just off to a hot start...and destined to fall to earth? We will not find out this week becuase WSU is not good. Beavers win at home 29-13.

Stanford vs. Arizona at Palo Alto. Should be a good game with both squads looking to bounce back after unexpected losses. I'll give it to the home team. Stanford 24-UA 17.

Cal vs. UCLA at Berkley. I think UCLA's season continues on an unexpected positive trajectory and Cal's woes continue. Bruins 34-Bears 13.

Arizona State vs. Colorado in Boulder. Sun Devils big. ASU 44-CU 10.

USC vs. Utah in Salt Lake City. Trojans big. USC 38-Utah 9.

Stay Classy UW B-Ball Fans

Basketball crowds are usually pretty tame when compared to football, soccer or even baseball. Sure, b-ball fans have passion, but it's usually in a more positive direction. Yeah for our side! That type of thing.

Indeed, there is usually something about other sports that fires up the masses so that you more frequently see overt displays of hostility and hate.

But, that doesn't mean basketball fans are immune to disgusting behavior.

For example, check out this short video clip of University of Washington basketball fans I took at last night's NIT game in Seattle....

Yep. That's right. Thousands of people booing 18-22 year old women and a guy in a Duck suit. It went on and on. Keep in mind, they're not booing the opposing team, the coach or something that happened during the game. Nope. They are booing the cheerleaders and mascot during a performance during a time out in the action. Nice.

Now, this is not to say that similar behavior would not happen elsewhere - including at Oregon would the roles be reversed. It would be equally bad if that were to happen.

But, there are two points I'd like to make:

First, what is it that drives people to do this type of thing? Really? Booing the cheerleaders? Not very creative and, I suspect most of the guys in the crowd doing the booing didn't avert their eyes to avoid looking at what the group of women were doing out on the floor...if you know what I mean. In attempts to answer my own question, it's probably as simple as: hey, there's some people out there representing the rival school participating in this game, I certainly don't want that school to win, so I'm going to boo that symbol of the school to communicate my displeasure. Just so base though. Lame.

Second, UW sports fans need to get down off their high horse. Typical spin out of Montlake is how horrible other fans (UO, WSU, USC, etc.) are to Husky fans and how such boorish behavior is not part of the UW fan base. After all, they are the "classy" fans in the Pac-12. I can personally attest based on some experiences at UW football games that this is definitely not true. The video from last night adds to the busting of that myth. Remember, I'm not saying other school's fans are not bad at times. I'm just saying, UW fans have no monopoly on good fan behavior...they're just as bad.

Anyway, the game itself was fun. Both teams played well at times and poorly at times, with the outcome in doubt down to the last minute. Congrats to the UW team for pulling out the win, and good luck to them as they advance in the NIT. Meanwhile, Husky fans...think about who and where you boo in the future.

Ducks Vs. My Rose Bowl Prediction

Well, it's been a couple weeks since the Ducks pulled off the victory in the 2012 Rose Bowl. Certainly I'm overjoyed with that outcome, but sadly...I'm hitting a bit of college football withdrawal.

To sooth that a bit, here are some thoughts about how my Ducks fared compared to my prediction before the game.

How did they do?

Essentially, I said that it was going to be a close one and that the thing that would probably be the difference between a UO win and a loss by the Ducks were turnovers.

Sure, Wisconsin would do what they do well, and so would the Ducks. But, my feeling was that if Oregon could limit their turnovers to one or fewer they would win.

Technically speaking, I was wrong then as the Ducks gave up the ball two times - once on an interception and another on a "scoop and score" fumble by Wisconsin.

Lucky for Oregon, when those things happened when there was plenty of time on the clock and the game very close...as it was all game long. While hurtful, those turnovers did not sting quite as much as they might have.

Why? Well, the Duck offense was scoring regularly. That and the Ducks created Wisconsin turnovers - and crucially timely ones too. One was a diving interception by an Oregon linebacker when it looked like the Badgers were once again marching down the field to score in the second half. The second was a fumble right by the sideline by a Wisconsin wide receiver very near the end of the game. Holding a one score lead, the Ducks pounced on the ball, killed a bunch of clock with their ensuing possession - and even though they had to punt, they killed enough time that the Badgers could not go the length of the field to score. Game over. So, the turnover game worked for both teams...but the Ducks a little bit more.

Moving on from there, another issue going into the game was the conventional wisdom that no matter how fast and athletic Oregon was, a big powerful defense with a month to prepare for the Ducks would stymie them - much as Auburn and Ohio State did in the 2011 BSC Championship and 2010 Rose Bowl respectively. But, this did not materialize this time. Nope. With only a couple exceptions when they had to punt, Oregon went up and down the field on Wisconsin...just a bit more than Wisconsin's offense did against the Duck D. The myth of a month to prepare was exploded. Indeed, the explosiveness and frequency of explosion by the Oregon offense kept them in the game and minimized the turnovers.

So the Ducks won by a touchdown, 45-38. Did I predict it? Not really. I felt good about Oregon's chances, but honestly I was too nervous and wary of past bowl performances to go out on a limb. I figured if turnovers went their way they'd win.

Am I happy about the outcome? YOU BET!

More college football come August.

For Your Consideration

Well, I'd just like to take a moment and say...