Peaks and Valleys: Jan. 1-Feb. 1 for a Seahawks and Oregon Duck Football Fan

OK. It's been a few days since the Seahawks shocking end-of-the-game loss in the Super Bowl.

As a Seahawks and Oregon Ducks fan, the Super Bowl caps what was, for me, a roller coaster football experience over the past few weeks filled with peaks and valleys.

PEAK: Jan. 1, my alma matter, the University of Oregon, wins the Rose Bowl in impressive fashion beating Florida State - last year's #1 team, at the time #3 team and a team that hadn't lost a game in two full seasons. Hey, winning the Rose Bowl is a BIG DEAL to any school and for Oregon, it's truly special. The team has only ever been in the game seven times and only won it three times...and one of those was nearly 100 years ago. So, this was the best peak for me in the Ducks season.

With the win, the UO advanced to the National Championship game as a favorite against #4 Ohio State.

PEAK: Jan. 10, my hometown Seattle Seahawks defeat the Carolina Panthers 31-17 in the NFL playoffs, sending the team to the NFC Championship game against the Green Bay Packers.

VALLEY: Jan. 12, the Ducks lay an egg in the title game. A lot of it had to do with the fact that, as it turned out, the #4 Buckeyes were actually the best team in college football. They were physically dominating on the line - producing a 200+ yard running back and effective QB on offense and bottling up Oregon's run game on defense. The saving grace for me is, my Ducks just got beat by a better team. There was no heartbreak ending or controversy. They just got beat. No difficult to accept.

PEAK: Jan. 18, the Seahawks defeat the Green Bay Packers in overtime in a miracle comeback for the ages. The final score was 29-22. With the win, the Seahawks earned a trip to their second straight Super Bowl. I cannot underscore how euphoric this win was for Seahawks fans. Of all the peaks I've mentioned, this was the best.

VALLEY: Feb. 1 in the Super Bowl, the Seahawks - possessing the ball at the Patriots' one yard line with less than a minute to play and for all the world looking like they are going to win the game with a power run by all-everyting RB Marshawn Lynch - instead decide to pass the ball over the middle into traffic. The ball intercepted. Game over. BIG VALLEY. Not necessarily because they lost, but HOW they lost. They had them. They had the win. They blew it.

My reaction in the moment was similar to about 99% of people on the planet..."WHAT THE F! RUN THE F-ING BALL TO WIN THE GAME. YOU HAVE THE BEST RB IN THE NFL RIGHT HERE ON THE FIELD. YOU ONLY HAVE ONE YARD TO GAIN!" Then over the past few days, one of the people in that other 1%, the Seahawks coach, explained why they did what they did and why. I understand what he said about not wanting to give NE any time after a score and how NE had their goal line D in so were susceptible to a pass. OK. I get it, but to me...that's not good enough.

My perspective is, its the last minute of the Super Bowl. You are behind. You get the lead NOW and play to your strengths - running the ball and defense. That would mean a power running play by Lynch. Give him the ball a couple times, he scores. And then if you have to play D for a few plays against Tom Brady, OK...at least you have the lead.

And hey, if the Hawks don't sore, OK...they lose anyway, but you don't go down the way they did.

All that said, it's great to have my college and pro football teams at or very near the top of their respective games. If I'm lucky, I'll be rooting for one or both again come next January.

College Football National Championship Game Prediction

#2 Oregon vs. #4 Ohio State
January 12 at 5 p.m. Pacific
AT&T Stadium
Arlington, TX
TV: ESPN

What's At Stake: 
Very simply and most importantly, the winner of the game is the 2014 college football champion. For Oregon, this would be their first national title in football - a huge deal! For Ohio State it would be their 8th, the most recent other one being in 2002. Also big, but 2002 was not that long ago.

Also to consider - particularly if Oregon wins - is that this game will signal a break from the real or perceive "SEC dominance" in college football. Why? A couple reasons:

• First, look how poorly the SEC did in bowl games this season. SEC teams went 7-5 in bowls, and teams from the touted SEC West conference went 0-5 when up against quality non-conference foes. While 7-5 is a winning bowl record for the conference, it's also not great and all the "big time" teams lost. Over-rated. 

• Next, this will be the second year in a row that that the SEC will not have won the title. Yes, last year Auburn was in the game, but they did not win it. And why would the break be more pronounced if Oregon wins? Well, the Big 10 has a long tradition of OSU, Michigan, Penn State and Wisconsin (and to a lesser degree Iowa) being perennial big time, big stage teams that can win it all. The Pac-12? No. Outside of USC, it's been 23 years since any other league team won the national title (Washington) and even then it was a co-title with Miami. So, showing that a non-USC team from the west can win the title will really will show how things have migrated away from the SEC.

OREGON DUCKS
How they got here: The Ducks defeated defending national title holder Florida State in the Rose Bowl on New Years Day by the dominating score of 50-20, securing their place in the title game. Prior to that, they reached the "final four" of college football after reeling off a 12-1 record and a Pac-12 title with the only loss coming early in the season to a ranked Arizona squad and with a lot of injuries that had decimated the Ducks' offensive line.

Since the Rose Bowl: Starting WR Devon Allen injured his knee on the first play of the Rose Bowl and will not play against Ohio State. Also, Oregon announced the uniforms they will wear for the big game and, much to the disappointment of many Oregon fans, there is no green or yellow in them...they're all white with grey/silver accents.

Strengths: A fast, talented, deep and dangerous offense that runs at a rapid tempo to rack up yards and exhaust the opposing defense. And, this offense is operated by Heisman Trophy winning QB Marcus Mariota - equally deadly with his arm and legs. Also, the UO defense has really come on over the past few games to play more physical football and ramped up their already impressive ability to cause and get turnovers.

Weaknesses: It's hard to point out weaknesses in a team that has made it this far, but if I had to say it would be the linebackers. They played well against FSU (Rose Bowl) and Arizona (Pac-12 title game), but there is the potential for them to get pushed around by a big physical offensive line Hell bent on blowing holes open up the middle. Also, the Ducks just don't have a reliable kicker. It's a crap shoot any time UO lines up for a FG or extra point.

Opportunities: Use superior speed and size at RB and WR to hit the Buckeyes on the edges, over the middle and then long. On Defense, get pressure on the young OSU QB with a rush off the edge and force him to make mistakes. You think that's not possible? Ask Jamis Winston how things went in the Rose Bowl.

Players to Watch: #8 QB Mariota, #24 RB Tyner, #9 DE Armstead and any Oregon LB.

What Oregon Fans Say: This ain't the same team OSU played in the Rose Bowl a few years back. We've got more talent, more size, more speed and a much better QB. OSU will not be able to match us for a full 60 minutes. Get ready Buckeyes, it's coming.

Oregon Fans' Secret Fear: A repeat of the 2010 Rose Bowl against OSU in which a) the Buckeyes did indeed "out-physical" Oregon, b) the Ducks made big mistakes (fumbled a sure-fire, take-the-lead TD away for example), c) the Buckeyes QB had the game of his career...all adding up to a 9 point loss for the Ducks. All that, or the game comes down to a field goal.

OHIO STATE BUCKEYES
How they got here: The Buckeyes upset #1 Alabama in the Sugar Bowl by the score of 42-35 on New Years Day to secure their spot in the title game. They made it into the football playoff with a 12-1 record that was notable for the fact that they did a lot of it with their backup QB following their starter going down in pre-season with an injury...and now their third string QB at the helm following his predecessor also going down with an injury. Lets put it this way, the title game will be the Buckeye QB's third career college start.

Since the Rose Bowl: Nothing to report as far as I can tell. No big injuries.

Strengths: Big offensive and defensive lines, a 1,600 yard RB, great depth at WR and (obviously QB) and an opportunistic defense.

Weaknesses: Again, it's difficult to find a true weakness in a final-two team, but I'll go with they are perhaps not as fast and athletic as Oregon's squad and their QB - for all his impressive play in two games - is indeed making this third start and it's against the fastest and biggest turnover-making D he'll have seen.

Opportunities for OSU: Establish a running game up the gut and off tackle given the aggressive nature of the Oregon DEs and the relatively smaller size of Duck LBs. If they can do that, look out. Conversely, if the Ohio State defensive front can get a push up the middle against Oregon's offensive line, they can disrupt Oregon's offense...think about what Auburn did to the Ducks in the 2011 Title Game.

Players to Watch: On offense, watch QB #12 Jones, RB #15 Elliot. On defense, watch the line play...are OSU players pushing the Oregon line backwards? Are they getting sacks?

What Ohio State Fans Say: We're bigger and stronger than Oregon and we will beat them just like we did in the 2010 Rose Bowl. Duck fans, get ready to be run over.

Buckeye Fans' Secret Fear: Oregon "does a Rose Bowl" on the Buckeyes, suddenly turning a close game into a blowout in the third or fourth quarter.

HOW THIS GAME WILL UNFOLD
I think this game is going to go just about like every other game Oregon has played this season. It will be close in the first half with one team ahead by a small amount (10 or less) at the break. OSU will have success on both sides of the ball and Oregon's offense will sputter a bit in the beginning. And then, in the second half, Oregon will assert itself with adjustments. Their offense will score fast and the defense will create a turnover or two. In the end, I think it'll be lower scoring than the Rose or Sugar Bowls, but I do think the Ducks will win pulling away.

SCORE
I say it'll be UO 37-OSU 24.

Oregon Football: Best Season Ever...Even Before the Title Game?

Wow! What a Rose Bowl...at least if you're an Oregon fan like me.

I did predict the Ducks would win and I predicted it'd be close for the first half and into the third quarter. And I did predict that the Seminoles would move the ball pretty well between the 20s.

But that's about where my powers of prediction stopped. I could not have seen Oregon's defense stopping FSU on a goal line stand, holding them to filed goal attempts a few times and forcing so may turnovers. And yes, they FORCED those turnovers rather than benefiting from Florida State players just making a mistake.

Throw in a great game played by Oregon QB Marcus Mariota, RBs Tyner and Freeman, WR Carrington and TE Baylis...and well, it turned into an epic butt whupping.

59-20 people. 59-20.

And with that, Oregon is the 2015 Rose Bowl champion. This is no small matter. Yes, they will now move onto the National Championship game against Ohio State. But, before getting into that, I don't think the Rose Bowl win should be overlooked. That by itself is a huge deal...and in particular it should be to Oregon fans. After all, we haven't been there too many times - six in total. And now they are 3-3 in the game all time. The Oregon Ducks, Rose Bowl Champion. I love it! And, it's the second Rose Bowl they've won in four seasons. In between they won the Fiesta Bowl and an Alamo Bowl, so the Ducks are 4-0 in bowls over the past four seasons.

I'll chime in with a prediction on the big game against the Buckeyes before the game. But before all that, lets do a re-cap of Oregon's season and contemplate that even if they lose the title game it could be their best season ever.

OK, lets start with the obvious. Oregon ran up a 12-1 record in the regular season. They've only ever had one undefeated regular season (2010), and only a few one-loss campaigns. So, yes, this year's record is great and up there with their best ever.

Next, who did Oregon beat in piling up those wins? Highly ranked Michigan State, ranked UCLA and Utah (both on the road), a top 10 ranked Arizona (Pac-12 title game), a ranked and difficult to beat Stanford squad who had UO's number over the past two seasons, hated rival Washington (for the 11th year in a row) and in-state rival Oregon State (for the seventh year in a row).

All great! In fact, I'd say that combination of satisfying victories in 2014 puts the season very high on the all-time great years for Oregon football...call it Top 3 at worst.

Addressing the one loss they had, it was against Arizona back in October and they avenged that quite nicely in the Pac-12 title game by wiping the Wildcats out. Again, quite satisfying.

OK, what else?

Oh, Oregon's QB won the Heisman Trophy as the best player in college football this season. No University of Oregon player had ever won it before.

In summary, I'd say that the combination of their overall record, who they beat, by how many points, the post-season awards picked up by various players and the Rose Bowl win makes 2014 the Ducks best football season ever right now...even before the National Title Game.

What will happen next? Come on back to this blog in a few days and see what I think. I've been pretty dang accurate predicting Oregon and Pac-12 games this season, so I may just know what I'm talking about.

2015 Rose Bowl Prediction

#2 Oregon vs. #3 Florida State
January 1 at 2 p.m. Pacific
Rose Bowl Stadium
Pasadena, CA
TV: ESPN

What's At Stake: 
The winner: 1) is Rose Bowl champion, and 2) goes on to play in the national championship game against the winner of #1 Alabama vs. #4 Ohio State.

OREGON

2014 season recap: The Ducks  racked up a 12-1 record in 2014. Mostly, they rolled the teams they played. Save the one Oct. game against Arizona (a close loss) and the game right before that against WSU (a close win), the Ducks put the hurt on the teams they matched up against. Those earlier close ones can mostly be attributed to offensive line injuries. That, and the Duck D seemed to take the "bend but don't break/keep it all in front of you" strategy to an extreme. More positively, Oregon beat currently and at-the-time ranked teams, including: Michigan State, UCLA, Utah and Arizona  in the league title game. They also beat Washington (a team with three All-Americans on their defense) soundly and for the 11tth year in a row. I would summarize the Ducks as such: wicked potent offense with the best QB in the nation + a ton of talent all over the field complemented by a fast but frustrating "don't give up the big play" defense that at times is super frustrating to watch. But, that combination delivered 12 wins.
Since the end of the season: There have been two big developments for the Ducks since they won the Pac-12 title game - one good, one bad. On the upside, QB Marcus Mariota won the Heisman Trophy as the best player in college football this season. The negative is that Oregon's All-American cornerback, Ifo Ekpre-Olomu injured his knee in practice and will not be able to play in the Rose Bowl.
Strengths: The Ducks have all to the pieces in place on offense to move the ball on the ground and through the air...and put up points. Also, the Ducks seem to find turn overs. And, speed on special teams means they can break one any time.
Weaknesses: Oregon does not field a defense that is just going to shut a team down. Yes, they did do that to Arizona in their last game and at key times against UCLA and Michigan State. But, that was not the norm across the entire season. All told, teams can work the ball down the field pretty easily on Oregon. Also, the Ducks do not have a field goal kicker that it can rely on outside of about 20 yards...and even then it's a nervous moment for Duck fans.
Opportunities: Oregon's offense can exploit an FSU defense that has not seen thee speed, tempo and talent at QB and RB that the Ducks bring. Special teams - particularly punt returns - could be magic.
Players to watch: On offense, #8 Mariota of course. Also keep an eye on the entire offensive line and how well #21 RB Freeman is running the ball. On defense, how much of a rush does the Oregon defensive line get? See how #9 Armistead does in getting to the QB and how does the now-depleted secondary fare against FSU's passing game? On special teams, watch speedy returner #6 Nelson.
What Oregon fans say: FSU plays in a weak league and has barely escaped many times this season. In the Pac-12 they would have lost several games. FSU QB Winston is an interception throwing machine...and the Ducks feast on turnovers. Oh, and good luck stopping the Oregon offense for four quarters.
Oregon fans' secret fear: FSU QB Winston picks apart the Oregon secondary on the way to multiple scores while their D line slows down the Mariota machine on offense. That, or the game comes down to a filed goal attempt by the Oregon kicker.

Florida State
2014 season recap: The Seminoles' season was basically a series of "great escapes" in which they fell behind in the first half and then came back in the second half to win...usually by a narrow margins. Throw in some easy wins over weak ACC teams and they ended at 13-0. Their marquee wins were against ranked Clemson, Louisville and Georgia Tech squads. Their offense runs the ball decently, but earns its yards and points by QB Winston throwing the ball. He has a talent for firing the ball into narrow windows, but sometimes (all too often for FSU fans) those balls are picked off. But hey, they've won 29 games in a row. On defense, the Seminoles do let teams score. They gave up 31 to Oklahoma State, 41 to NC State, 27 to Notre Dame and 31 to Louisville. So, we're not talking about an SEC-style/shut-down D here. But again...two straight undefeated seasons.
Since the end of the season: Not much news...which is good for a squad that has had some players get into trouble off the field.
Strengths: On offense, clearly QB Winston is a leader and can throw the ball really well. On defense, their line is big and athletic. And, they have a very good place kicker.
Weaknesses: FSU's defense is susceptible to the spread offense, a fast tempo and a mobile QB. Guess what Oregon does? Also, QB Winston does throw too many interceptions.
Opportunities: Throwing the ball to move it down the field against Oregon's "keep it in front of us" defense (now also minus its best cover man due to injury), having their big defensive linemen disrupt running lanes and making Oregon's QB scramble. The ability to win the game with a long field goal.
Players to watch: On offense, #5 QB Winston, tight end #85 O'Leary and #80 receiver Greene. On defense, I say watch the FSU line play. Are they getting into the Oregon backfield regularly? Are they making Oregon's QB to scramble and denying Duck RBs the ability to get to the corner?
What FSU fans say: We're current national champs - you are not. We've won 29 in a row - you have not. Oregon plays in the weak Pac-12 and have never seen the size, speed and aggressiveness of this FSU team.
FSU fans' secret fear: Oregon rips FSU for 50+ points aided by QB Winston throwing multiple interceptions...and no amount of second half heroics matter.

How It Will Unfold
Considering all of the above, here is how I think this game will go...

First Quarter
FSU has success stopping the rusty Oregon offense while the FSU O moves the ball through the air with short, efficient passes that reduce the chances of Winston throwing an interception - and they score a TD early. Oregon fans' worst fears are being realized. FSU's "ball control" keeps Oregon's offense off the field and the Ducks off the scoreboard...for the moment. However, Oregon's D stiffens and holds the Seminoles twice to field goals.

Score at the end of the first quarter: FSU 13-UO 0

Second Quarter
Oregon gets its running game going and makes FSU pay for over-aggressively rushing Mariota. The Ducks get a score. Winston throws a pick and the Ducks convert into a FG. Yes, a FG by Oregon. But, FSU strikes again for another TD by throwing long against the guy replacing Oregon's All-American CB Ekpre-Olomu.

Score at halftime: FSU 20-UO 10

Third Quarter
The Ducks get a great kick return the first time they touch the ball in the second half - setting up a TD pass from Mariota. Oregon's defense comes out with some adjustments that puts more pressure on Winston - making him throw poorer passes and getting sacked a few times. With this comes a couple more possessions for Oregon's offense - and a FG and TD. FSU eeks out a FG during the quarter.

Score at the end of the third quarter: UO 27-FSU 23

Fourth Quarter
Oregon fumbles the ball in their own end and FSU converts into a TD, taking the lead again. However, the Ducks come right back and score quickly. Now, it's down to who can stop who? I say three-plus quarters of Oregon's offensive attack starts to take its toll on FSU's defensive players and Oregon's offense hits the accelerator - scoring twice. Meanwhile, FSU becomes desperate as time is running out...they get a TD. It's UO 41-FSU 37 with a couple minutes left.

FSU makes a mistake...a fumble, a pick, failing to convert of fourth down. This seals the deal for them. Oregon takes advantage to win, and even scores one more before the clock runs out.

Final Score
UO 48-FSU 37

Pac-12 Wraps Up, Bowl Games Next

OK, so I predicted the Ducks would win the 2014 Pac-12 Title Game. I was right.

I predicted the score would be 45-28 - a difference of 17 points. Well, I was 20 points off on that as it ended up being UO by 37 with a final score of 51-13 - with six of UA's total of 13 coming on the last play of the game.

To summarize how the game went:

• Oregon stopped UA's offense cold - the exact opposite of when they met in Oct.
• UA's defense played well in the first half, but conceded points...then fell apart.
• Mariota and the Ducks O took a bit to get on track, but when they did...whoosh!
• Blowout.  

And with that, the Pac-12 season is over. Oregon is league champ - making it four titles over the past six seasons. Elsewhere, the league finished with six of its 12 teams ranked: Oregon #2, Arizona #10, UCLA #14, Arizona State #15, #22 Utah and USC #24. There were two other teams with winning records: UW (8-4) and Stanford (7-5).

What's Next
For the Pac-12 there are two big things left for this season:

Will Oregon QB Marcus Mariota win the Heisman Trophy? We'll only know the answer next weekend. Speculation is that he will, but there has not been a league player outside of USC who has won the award since 1970 (Jim Plunkett, Stanford) and nobody from a school outside of the state of California since 1962 (Terry Baker, Oregon State). So, one wonders.

Bowl Games

Eight league teams are going bowling, some with very interesting match ups, others not so much. Below is who is playing in what games along with some quick thoughts. I'll likely post some predictions for these games at some point in December and FOR SURE on the Rose Bowl.

#22 Utah vs. Colorado State

Las Vegas Bowl - Dec. 20

Decent match up. Could be a good game. The Vegas bowl is a blast and one of the better small bowl games.

#24 USC vs. Nebraska

Holiday Bowl - Dec. 27

I like this one. Nebraska showing their coach out with one last game. USC trying to set up hopes for next season. 

#15 Arizona State vs. Duke

Sun Bowl - Dec. 27

Meh, not much to root for or care about unless you support one of the two schools.

Stanford vs. Maryland

Foster Farms Bowl - Dec. 30

Double meh. Same reasons. Plus, it's the "Foster Farms Bowl."

#10 Arizona vs. #20 Boise State

Fiesta Bowl - Dec. 31

Another good one. New Years Eve day to boot. While I'm no Arizona fan, I'll be rooting for them to represent the league against the likes of BSU.

#2 Oregon vs. #3 Florida State

Rose Bowl - Jan. 1

This is the biggie! This will be a gooooood game I think. Close, hard fought with turnovers being a huge factor. I'll predict it soon.

#14 UCLA vs. #11 Kansas State

Alamo Bowl - Jan. 2

A battle of talented teams, but "also ran" status for both. 

Washington vs. Oklahoma State

Cactus Bowl - Jan. 2

Which team is on the rise and which one still has big question marks going into the offseason. The winner of this one will feel pretty good and the loser awful.

Ducks Go Full Retro for UW Game

If the annual rivalry between Oregon and Washington football has lacked a bit of spark over the past 10 years becasue the Ducks have doled out 10 beat downs in a row, well, the UO just provided it.

To mark the 20th anniversary of "The Pick" by UO cornerback Kenny Wheaton, Oregon unveiled the throwback uniforms they'll wear this weekend against the Huskies.

Oregon Retro Uniforms for Game Oct 18, 2014

As a Duck fan, this is AWESOME! Those uniforms were great and the win against UW back in 1994 set in motion a run to a Pac-10 title and Rose Bowl appearance that year and a whole lot of change in Oregon football (and athletics generally) after that...giving rise to what we have now.

And of course, UO fans will revel in the uniforms and the exhilaration of "Wheaton is gonna score!" all while hoping to Hell the Ducks prevail once again. After all, if you lose wearing these uniforms and all they stand for - at minimum you look a bit foolish and at maximum you actual tarnish the history some. Not much, but some.

If I was a Husky fan, I'd be pissed off. This is a direct slap in the face...rubbing Dawg noses in not only the dramatic pick-six but also the 20 year dominance of UO over UW (15-4 since 1994). 

And hence the spark the rivalry needs. You can be sure the Seattle media will cover this angle - reminding all Dawg fans of that fateful day 20 years ago and amping them up with a bloodthirsty desire for revenge.  

Oregon Retro Uniforms for Game Oct 18, 2014

Ironically, the players on both sides probably don't care too much one way or the other as they were either babies or not even born back in 1994.

Yes, both teams want to win the game bad, but for their own reasons this season and not because of what happened two decades ago...and they are certainly not motivated by what one team will wear.

No, this weekend UO players are more or less just indulging Oregon fans by donning the retro gear. 

Meanwhile, UW players don't have any memory of those uniforms either. To them its just some new combo in the ever changing lineup of colors and designs trotted out by Oregon. 

How will all this play out? Well, check back Thursday for my Pac-12 predictions post. 

In the meantime, check out my personal UO vs. UW football history post from this week.

A Decade of Duck Dominance - Oregon, Washington

It's that week of the college football season. If you live in Washington or Oregon, you know what I mean. It's the week the University of Oregon and University of Washington football teams square off in a bitter, bitter boarder rivalry.

Hate and war...at least among the fan bases.

As a UO grad who grew up in Seattle and who lives there now, it's also a week that determines how much crap I'll get from UW fans for the following twelve months. This year, the plan is to gather with a mixed group of UO and UW friends to watch the game at a local pub. We'll see how that goes!

As we collectively prep for the big game, I thought I'd take a few minutes for a pre-emptive strike against my UW "friends" to remind them how lop-sided the "rivalry" has been recently.

First, historically Washington owns the advantage in the overall record of the rivalry. Give them their due. Stretching back over the past 114 years, UW has won 58 of the games to 43 for Oregon. There have been five ties over the years too. The long stretches of UW dominance over the decades is what built up the bitterness among Oregon fans for Washington football. Or, more accurately, hate for Washington football fans. Yep. The unmitigated arrogance and condescending attitude from many UW fans is why it was so sweet when the Ducks won in 1994 on the famous Kenny Wheaton interception and why regularly kicking Husky butt nowadays is such a pleasure.

Speaking of which, over the past 20 years Oregon has won 15 of the battles with Washington while UW has won four. The teams didn't play in 2001. And over the last 10 years it's been 100% all Oregon winning the games - all by substantial margins. Right now, the compelling nature of this game every year is if, when, where and how will Washington win again. My prediction is not this year. Their best shot is going to be in 2015.

Below is a re-cap of the "decade of Duck dominance" with games I personally attended marked with a *. I've added a few recollections too.

2013 in Seattle*. UO 45-UW 24. As a Seattle resident, I remember hearing many in the Seattle sports media saying that UW really had a great chance to win and probably would. So much so that I actually started believing them and was nervous about it. I need not have worried. Oregon QB Marcus Mariota had a huge day, throwing three TD passes and 366 yards through the air. He ran for 88 yards and a TD as well. This game was close through the first half, then snowballed in Oregon's favor in the second half. A friend and I sat in the Oregon section way, way, way up in the rafters of the renovated Husky Stadium. Oh, and the only crap I received from a UW fan was pretty weak...before the game in "The Zone" eating and drinking area a very inebriated UW student walked up to me and slurred out, "Your shirt fucking sucks." He stood there droopy eyed and repeated his statement, expecting me to react. I just ignored him. He eventually shambled away.

2012 in Eugene. UO 52-UW 21. This was the first boarder rivalry game played by UO QB Mariota. He did well, throwing for four TDs. The Oregon D also had a "pick six" off UW QB Keith Price.

2011 in Seattle*. UO 34-UW 17. This turned out to be the "closest" game across the ten year stretch of consecutive Duck wins. It was also a night game and the last to be played in the old Husky Stadium before the renovation project was to begin. Note, not the last Oregon vs. Washington game before the remodel...no, the last game ever in the old structure. What happened? Oregon won. That's what. UO RB LaMichael James had a big night running the ball. I sat in the old west end-zone section with Oregon fans. This was one of the worst places to watch a game at old Husky Stadium because of how far you are from the action. And, it's why UW allocated that section for visitors tickets.

I recall going out on the concourse at halftime and witnessing two incidence of abuse by UW fans. First, standing in line to get a hot dog...all of a sudden a body comes flying into my back, making me stumble forward. Turns out, a UW fan had shoved an Oregon fan and that fan fell into me. Wheeling around, I saw that the offending person was young and clearly drunk. He wanted to fight anyone not wearing purple. Some cooler-headed Husky fans somehow got him out of there before security showed up. The next thing that happened was standing in line to use the restroom. The way Husky Stadium was constructed at the time was that fans with seats at the very top of the U-shaped west end zone section could turn around and look directly down on the concourse. It happened that a drunk 50-something UW fan had done just that and was shouting abuse at Oregon fans as we waited in line to go to the restroom. Between his stream of profanity, he peppered in the line "win a Rose Bowl." (Oregon did that just a few weeks later by the way.) I fully expected this guy to throw something on us or spit at us because we were sitting "ducks" in line there. He didn't. But, all the guys in the line with me - UO and UW fans alike - agreed that you don't want to be that guy...middle age, drunk, swearing and spewing hate at people about college football.

2010 in Eugene. UO 53-16. After a 0-0 score at the end of the first quarter, UW fans had reason to be hopeful. With Jake Locker out, young backup Keith Price played QB for Washington...and looked pretty good all day long. But, reality hit in the second quarter and another wipe-out of Washington ensued. I watched this one at home in Seattle. I remember thinking I was glad not to have made the trip because it wasn't much of a game and the weather was bad down there in Eugene.

2009 in Seattle*. UO 43-UW 19. A game played on a wonderfully sunny fall afternoon. We took the party boat from Ballard to Husky Stadium wearing our Oregon gear. Dawg fans were good natured on the ride before the game, silent to us on the way back. I met KJR sports radio personality Mike Gastineau on the boat. Nice guy. Oh, and the game wasn't close...again. I recall Locker throwing an interception just as it looked like UW might get into the game with a score. All downhill for them after that.

2008 in Eugene.* UO 44-UW 10. This was a night game and an early outing for new UW QB Jake Locker. Meanwhile, it was also the debut at QB for Oregon's Jeremiah Masoli. Even the home PA announcer didn't know how to pronounce Masoli's last name (it's Mah-sOH-Lee). UW would go on to win exactly zero games the rest of the 2008 season. A friend and I went down for the game. We spent the sunny, hot afternoon perched outside on the patio at Taylor's near campus...which was a lot of fun.   Eventually, some other UW fan friends from Seattle joined us for the walk over to the stadium. Which left me as a lone Oregon fan amongst 3-4 Husky buddies. This proved not to be great for us as we somehow fell in with some young, amped up and drunk Oregon fans who a) were eager to give maximum shit to any UW fan, and b) did not appreciated that I, as an Oregon fan, was walking with Washington fans to the game. You can read about that episode and my reaction to it in my post titled "There's An A-Hole In Every Crowd (Sometimes Two)."

2007 in Seattle.* Oregon 55-UW 34. This was the game where UW fans cheered mightily on a play where they thought Washington's defense has stuffed a run up the middle only to realize to their horror that the Oregon QB, Denis Dixon, had actually pulled the ball out and was running unabated down the sideline for a score. UO running back, and Tacoma-area native, Jonathan Steward had a great day too...rushing for 251 yards.

2006 in Eugene. UO 34-14. Anyone remember who was the starting UW QB that day? Carl Bonnell. Me neither. This was the third year in a row the game was played in Eugene - an anomaly of scheduling and not some secret conspiracy to "screw" the UW. Washington fans like to forget there were stretches where the UO vs. UW game was played in connective years in Seattle - 1989-1991 for example. All Husky wins by the way.

2005 in Eugene*. UO 45-UW 21. A big day for Oregon QB Kellen Clemens and another big win for the Ducks. This was a game that a friend of mine and I did the whole trip from Seattle to Eugene and back in one day...a very LONG day. But, it was a longer day for my friend as he is a Husky fan. I also recall a funny episode at Taylor's bar before the game. We stopped in for some food and pre-game libations. My friend was wearing his UW shirt, bravely advertising he was a "enemy" fan. At one point a lovely young UO student (I am assuming she was a student) decked out in Oregon colors came up to us and fanned out a series of flyers - each with the headline "Famous Huskies" or something like that. On each was a different UW grad who, shall we say, aren't the best people - Ted Bundy, Jeremy Stevens and various other UW players who had been convicted of crimes. I think she gave my friend a choice of which one he could take. We all had a laugh.

2004 in Eugene. UO 31-UW 6. UO QB Clemens had a great day as the world was treated to the "all-neon-yellow" UO uniforms. If I recall, this game was actually NOT on TV in Seattle. A friend and I listed to it on the radio. Remember those days when games were not on TV?

And there we have it. The last 10 meetings. The two years prior, 2003 and 2002, Washington won impressively 44-14 and 42-10 respectively. Ah yes, the early 2000s. Before Facebook, iPods, Twitter, smart phones. Even the oldest players on UW were in middle school the last time the Huskies prevailed.

UW vs. UO...It's Been a Long Time

It's been a loooooong time since the University of Washington football team has beaten the University of Oregon on the football field. Nine years. Almost a decade.

This weekend's game is shaping up to be the Husky's best chance in the past 10 years to pull off a victory against the Ducks. Will they? Hard to say. They're not favored and the Ducks are awfully good. But, the game is at home for UW and the team is better than it has been in the last nine years.

But nine years is a long time.

To give you an idea of how long it's been since the last UW victory in this border war, cast your mind way back to a distant time called 2003. That's right, that's the last time the Huskies prevailed on the gridiron against the Ducks.

Got that timeframe in your mind?

OK, here are technologies now common in everyday life in the USA that were not around in 2003:

• Facebook - launched the next year.
• iPhones and iPads - still a few  years away.
• Twitter - did not exist.
• YouTube - that's right. No YouTube when the Dawgs beat UO last.
• BlueRay DVDs - oh, how did we ever watch non-HD movies at home!
• Kindle - or eReaders of any kind had not yet been introduced.
• Digital cameras - Ok, they existed, but they were no where near as pervasive as they are now, and they certainly weren't on people's mobile phones.

Imagine life without any of those things. Barbaric. (Kidding, but still...you get the idea.) In any case, all of those things have come to pass and into our lives since UW beat Oregon in football.

All right, how about pop culture? Back in 2003...

• Lance Armstrong was still winning multiple Tour de France races and hailed as a hero by everyone (except the French...it didn't take doping charges to make them hate Lance).
• Martha Stewart had yet to be convicted of insider trading.
• Janet Jackson had not yet to have her "wardrobe malfunction" at the Super Bowl
• Shamwow! and the Snuggie - not. yet. invented.
• Zumba - not around. Just saying.
• The TV show Lost - had not started yet.

And on and on. So much has come to pass in the nine years since the UW came out winners against Oregon in football. So much.

And guess what? It's more than likely the Ducks will make it "a decade of dominance" with a win Saturday in Seattle. I'm not saying for sure they'll win, but I think it's likely. I'll be there to ether witness the turning of that decade or the downfall of the streak. Should be fun!

Pac-12 Week 4 Predictions

Well, I was wrong about Oregon last week. Oh, they won just like a predicted. But where I was wrong was by how much. I thought the big SEC boys from Tennessee would, based on talent alone, keep this one close and Oregon would pull away in the fourth quarter. Turns out it was close only in the first quarter and the Ducks ended up pulling away before halftime on their way to a 59-14 win.

Meanwhile, UW got its second win...this time on the road. Although not too impressive of a victory it still puts them in good position to go 3-0 before they start league play.

And, you have to hand it to ASU and UCLA for taking on Big 10 powers Wisconsin and Nebraska respectively and coming away with wins.

Here's what I think will happen this weekend...

Washington (2-0, 0-0) vs. Idaho State in Seattle. The Huskies will advance to 3-0 with an easy win in this one. UW 41-ISU 9.

WSU (2-1, 1-0) vs. Idaho in Pullman. Conventional wisdom would say any team that can go down to LA and beat USC should have no problem with Idaho at home. But we're talking about the Cougs here, and USC ain't the same this year. So who knows. None the less, I'll say WSU 27 - Idaho 13.

Oregon State (2-1, 1-0) vs. San Diego State in San Diego. The Beavs barely won in OT vs. Utah last week, so I say this is not a "gimmie" for them. Still, I think they'll win. OSU 24 - SDSU 17.

Stanford (2-0, 0-0) vs. Arizona State (2-0, 0-0) in Palo Alto. The only true league game this week. Stanford has played far inferior competition in their first two while ASU has taken out Wisconsin. And this one is in the desert. I call an early upset with the Sun Devils pulling it off. ASU 31-Stanford 28.

UCLA (2-0, 0-0) vs. New Mexico State in Los Angeles. UCLA once again proved it's the real deal this year by going into Nebraska and winning last week. They will have no trouble with NMSU. Bruins 44 - NMSU 13.

Utah (2-1, 0-1) vs. BYU in Provo. In-state battle of the biggest two universities. BYU is pretty good. Utah is not. I'll say BYU wins 27-20.

USC (2-1, 0-1) vs. Utah State in Los Angeles. USC is not up to its normal standards this season and Utah State is no pushover any more. But, I think the Trojan talent will win out. USC 28-USU 17.


Oregon, Cal, Arizona and Colorado all have byes this weekend and will be back in action Sept. 28.

Pac-12 Week 3 Predictions

Wow. That was a pretty dang good weekend for the Pac-12 last Saturday. WSU upset USC in LA in the first league game, Oregon blew out Virginia on the road, Oregon State notched a win, Cal got a scare from Portland State but put them away in the end and Stanford finally got into action with a win.

With most teams still playing out-of-conference games this week, what will happen? Here's what I think...

#2 Oregon (2-0 overall, 0-0 in league play) vs. Tennessee in Eugene. Pac-12 vs. SEC...in the Northwest! What? SEC teams are notorious for a) not playing challenging out-of-conference games, and b) not traveling outside the south to play out-of-conference games. So, big kudos to the Vols for coming to Eugene in return for the Ducks playing in Tennessee a couple years ago. How will this one go? I predict the Ducks will win - moving to 3-0 entering league play. But, I don't think it will be the blowout that the last two weeks have been. I think Tennessee has some great athletes and will challenge Oregon some. I say UO 31-Tenn 20.

#20 Washington (1-0, 0-0) vs. Illinois in Chicago. Is UW for real? Was the win vs. Boise State last week a preview of a newly blossomed powerhouse? Or, was that more chalked up to the emotion of opening the new stadium and the fact that Boise is, in reality, not that good...they've said goodbye to 13 starters from last season. Well, the road will be a good test for the Huskies and provide some indication. Illinois is not a world-beater, but they are a Big 10 team and this is on the road in Chicago. I think the Huskies get it done though. UW 27-Illinois 17.

Oregon State (1-1, 0-0) vs. Utah (2-0, 0-0) in Salt Lake City. Neither team has played high quality opponents and both teams are suspect. I think Utah may win this one, but I'll give the nod to OS as I think they have superior tallent on both sides of the ball. Oregon State 19-Utah 10.

WSU (1-1, 1-0) vs. Southern Utah in Pullman. How about them Cougs!? Not only did they upset USC in L.A., but they held the Trojans to seven points. Wow. Who knew the WSU defense was up to that? And who knew USC's normally potent offense would be so anemic? Either way, the Cougs got a big one and will continue their roll with a big win over Southern Utah. WSU 28-SU 9.

#5 Stanford (1-0, 0-0) vs. Army at West Point. The Cardinal beat up on a weak San Jose State team to open its season and gets only a slightly more difficult challenge this week. Stanford wins this one too. Stan 31-Army 6.

Cal (1-1, 0-0) vs. #3 Ohio State at Berkley. This is a real nice match-up. Don't underestimate Cal. They've been getting their "sea legs" under them with a new coach over the last couple weeks and have good talent on their roster. They've also already played a Big 10 school, Northwestern. Could they upset the highly ranked Buckeyes? Yes, they could. But they won't. Cal makes it interesting for a while but OSU wins. OSU 30-Cal17.

#18 UCLA (1-0, 0-0) vs. #22 Nebraska in Lincoln. Another good one! UCLA is on the road for this game. I call upset on this one. The Cornhuskers will win a close one. Neb 24-UCLA 21.

Arizona (2-0, 0-0) vs. University of Texas San Antonio in Tucson. This one won't be interesting or close. UA 49-UTSA 13.

Arizona State (1-0, 0-0) vs. Wisconsin in Tempe. A third Pac-12 vs. Big 10 match up for this weekend. I like it. While certainly Wisconsin could win it, I think ASU pulls it out at home...and perhaps pull away in the fourth quarter. ASU 41 - Wisc 27.

Colorado (2-0, 0-0) vs. Fresno State in Boulder. Check out Colorado at 2-0. Nice. Now they get the Bulldogs at home. As much as I'd like to see the Buffs move on to 3-0, I think reality returns this week and they drop this game to Fresno State. FSU 27-CU 17.

USC (1-1, 0-1) vs. Boston College in L.A. Hmmm. Not sure what to make of USC at this point. I'll go with the fact that this is in L.A. and, despite their start this season, USC is USC. I'll take the Trojans to win. USC 20-BC 14.

Pac-12 Week 1 Predictions

My predictions for Week 1 of the Pac-12 season are...

Oregon vs. Nichols State in Eugene. Ummm, what do you think will happen in this one? That's right, we all agree. Oregon blows out NSU 57-10 - at least.

UW vs. Boise State in Seattle. BSU beat UW in the Vegas Bowl to end last season. I think the Dawgs get revenge and beat the Broncos 23-17 in brand new Husky Stadium to start the season off right.

Oregon State vs. Eastern Washington in Corvallis. Normally you'd think the Beavers would just roll a lower division opponent, but a) EWU is good, and b) OSU has lost these type of games at home in recent history. None the less, I'll say Oregon State wins 28-21.

WSU vs. Auburn in Auburn, Alabama. Well, what a way to start the season, huh? Road trip to SEC country. Even though Auburn ain't what it used to be, I say War Eagle wins 24-14.

Cal vs. Northwestern in Berkley. Home advantage for Cal, but Northwestern pulls the upset 27-24.

UCLA vs. Nevada in L.A. Nevada is not the chump it used to be, but they're not good enough to beat the Bruins in week one. I say UCLA wins 31-17.

USC vs. Hawaii in Honolulu. Nice place to start your season, right? The islands are kind to the Trojans as they roll up The Rainbow Warriors big, 45-21.

Arizona vs. Northern Arizona in Tucson. NAU is good. They might win this one, but I'll say Wildcats prevail 31-30.

Utah vs. Utah State in Salt Lake City. Good rivalry match up to start the season. The woes start early for the Utes as the Aggies win 27-13.

Colorado vs. Colorado State in Denver. Another in-state, cross-conference rivalry kick off game. I like it. I also like CSU to win it 23-10.

Stanford and Arizona State stay on summer vacation with a BYE this week.

2013 Pac-12 Football Season Preview and Predictions

It's that time of year again. Yep, Pac-12 football is just around the corner with the first games starting in a couple weeks. Below is what I think will happen over the next few months...

OFF SEASON
The two biggest happenings in the league over the off season both revolved around Oregon. First, their highly successful coach, Chip Kelly, left the school for the head job with the NFL's Philadelphia Eagles. His offensive coordinator, Mark Helfrich is now the head coach at Oregon. Second, at LONG last the NCAA ruled on recruiting violations committed by the University of Oregon coaching staff - in particular their use of a recruiting service in Texas. To make a really long story short, Oregon cooperated fully with the NCAA, the violations were in a very gray area of the rules, they did not involve any players of consequence during the time of the violations, other schools did the same thing at the same time, and Oregon's head coach departed for the NFL. And the upshot of all that is the NCAA did not levy harsh penalties. So, the Ducks are ready to fly in 2013.

PREDICTIONS
I will not predict records, but I will predict order of finish.

North Division

1. Oregon - Ducks just re-load. But, with Stanford in this division UO may have to go undefeated in order to win just the North Division of the league. With the talent they have all over the field and a great returning QB, they are capable of doing it...and if they do, much more will be at stake than just the North Division.
2. Stanford - This squad could win the North as it did last year by simply beating Oregon. But I don't think that will happen. The Trees lose some key players, including their great running back Stephan Taylor and a couple big, key TEs. None the less, they could easily end up in a BCS bowl.
3. Washington - I know most are predicting OSU in the #3 spot in the North, and that certainly could happen. But, UW will be better this season. I think they will take a small step and get eight wins this year.
4. Oregon State - Middle-of-the pack season coming up for the Beavs. Over rated at #25 in the coaches poll going into the season. They'll probably win a couple they should lose and drop 1-2 they should win, but in the end I'm not seeing this as a breakout year for the kids from corn valley.
5. Cal - They may have the talent to finish a notch or two higher than I'm predicting, but I've got them here because of who they lose from last year and the fact that they've just underwhelmed the last couple seasons.
6. WSU - Sorry Cougs. You will be more competitive on the field, but I don't see a strong finish in the league this season.

South Division

1. UCLA - The hype finally matches the talent. UCLA repeats as South champion. 
2. USC - The Trojans lose some great talent, but it's still USC. So, they could challenge for the South title if things fall their way...which traditionally they do. However, between their 2012 run of bad luck and questionable coaching talent, I think the critical breaks coming their way will be bad instead of good.
3. ASU - Another year, another rousing set of expectations for the Sun Devils. I put them in the middle-of-the pack because that's where they always seem to finish regardless of what's said about them in the off season or even how they actually perform in the early part of their schedule.
4. Arizona - A step back for the Wildcats this season with the departure of their QB and continuing changes brought in by new coach Rich Rod.
5. Utah - More mediocrity out of the Utes in 2013. Not looking for much from them.
6. Colorado - Oh why did they join the Pac-12?

Pac-12 Title Game
This game is played between the winner of the North and the South divisions with the victor claiming the Pac-12 Championship and an automatic bid to the Rose Bowl. If the winning team is ranked #1 or #2 in the final BCS rankings, however, they would go to the National Title game instead...also to be played in the Rose Bowl stadium this time around.

Oregon vs. UCLA - I'm picking a repeat of the inaugural Pac-12 title game in 2011 and I'm predicting the same outcome...a win by Oregon. However, I'm going to also predict that the Ducks don't get to the National Title game and have to "settle" for the Rose Bowl.

The Crap I've Heard Today from UW Fans

Among the sputtering, desperate utterings I heard from upset Husky fans on the radio and social media as they reacted to the light sanctions doled out today to Oregon by the NCAA included...

"Oregon football is irrelevant." Right. Perhaps the most head-in-the-sand remark of the day. Over the last 10 years, the Oregon football team has finished in the top 5-10 rankings consistently, won the league three times and tied for the title once, won the Fiesta Bowl twice, the Rose Bowl once and appeared in the National Title game...losing by 3 points on the very last play of the game.  That sounds pretty dang relevant to me. Oh, and they've beaten UW 9 years in a row. Now if nothing else, THAT should be relevant to UW fans.

"Oregon is nothing, go back to the 70s and 80s...they were horrible." Yes, that's true. It was also 30-40 years ago. UW...you're living in the past on this one again. Since the mid-1990s up and until today, the Ducks have been increasingly good and in the past 5 years...dominant, in particular over Northwest rivals UW, WSU and OSU.

"Oregon should 'do something' that people will remember before getting too cocky." This one is a not-so-thinly veiled brag by Dawg fans on the fact that they shared a national title back in 1991 with Miami and a reminder to Duck fans that UO has not won even half a title. OK, well how about winning three league titles in the last four seasons? Winning the Rose Bowl following the 2011 season? Winning the Fiesta Bowl this past January? Going 12-0 in 2010 and appearing in the National Title Game? That's pretty impressive. Those titles are "etched in history" just as much the UW's 1/2 title back in 1991.

"It's all Phil Knight and his money and influence that got UO off the hook." Really? Guess what Pac-12 school receives the most money annually from Nike? UO? No. Stanford, the other Pac-12 school Knight went to? No. Neither. The school getting the most money from Nike each year is...The University of Washington. So shut up.

"Oregon payed players." No. They didn't. Read the NCAA report.

"Oregon got a benefit on the field from its crooked recruiting activities." No. It didn't. Read the NCAA report. That, and it's just flat fact that nobody recruited in a way that the NCAA ruled against saw the field.

No, all of the above is weak, desperate crap from fans of a team that has hit real hard times for 10 plus years now. If UW was a very good football team OR if Oregon was not, these same UW fans would not be reacting nearly the way they are today. No, the sad truth for them is that their team has been average at best since the mid-1990s and pretty much in the tank over the last 5-6 seasons. And THAT is the true root of the comments today.

I for one am REALLY looking forward to the game in Seattle this coming season. Will the UW rise up and win a surprise upset? Or, will the Ducks steamroll the Dawgs for the 10th year in a row?

My guess. Neither. UO will win, but it'll be close. We'll see.

Pac-12 Goes Bowling - Comments and Predictions

The Pac-12 bowl matchups are set for the 2012 season. I think the league has a very good shot at running the table in bowl season. The matchups just favor the Pac-12 teams.

Below is who is playing who in which bowls and a few thoughts on each game...

FIESTA BOWL - Oregon vs. Kansas State on Jan. 3

Oh boy. This could be a HIGH scoring game. Oregon's O is a wicked and multi-faceted TD scoring machine on hyper drive. KSU's offense is run by 2013's version of Cam Newton. In situations like this, it's usually the team with the stiffest (gets stops) and most opportunistic (gets turnovers) defense that ends up winning. I say that between the two of these squads, that's Oregon.

Oregon 47-KSU 36


ROSE BOWL - Stanford vs. Wisconsin on Jan. 1 You won't be able to tell which team is which because both have the exact same colors, field similar "big beefy" squads who play smash mouth football, and sport very similar uniform styles - including white helmets with a single red block letter on both sides.

Wisconsin is in their third straight Rose Bowl, having lost to Oregon last year and TCU the year before. I say the third time is the charm and that the big guys in red and white from the Midwest beat the big guys in red and white from the Bay Area.

Wisconsin 28-Stanford 24

SUN BOWL - USC vs. Georgia Tech on Dec. 31
USC had a disappointing season. The Sun Bowl ain't why QB Matt Barkley came back for his senior season. However, they are playing a team in Georgia Tech with a losing record. That's right. The Ramblin' Wreck sports a 6-7 record. They're in this bowl because they petitioned the NCAA on the grounds that they should not "penalized" by being left out of a bowl by reaching but losing the ACC championship game. No matter, USC will win this.

USC 38-GT 14

ALAMO BOWL - Oregon State vs. Texas on Dec. 29 This ought to be a good matchup and worth watching. OSU is much better than expected this season and any time you get a Pac-12 team vs. Texas...seems like it proves entertaining. (Note many Holiday Bowls from previous years.) I think the Beavers win this.

OSU 27 - UT 24

FIGHT HUNGER BOWL - Arizona State vs. Navy on Dec. 29Hmmm. Will anyone outside of the ASU campus and Navy personnel watch this? Probably not...or at least not too many. Will it be a good game? That's less known. ASU might dominate this thing or perhaps it'll be close. I'll say that the Sun Devils do accelerate away from the Midshipmen to win it.

ASU 47-Navy 20

HOLIDAY BOWL - UCLA vs. Baylor on Dec. 27
I'd say that outside of Oregon vs. Kansas State in the Fiesta Bowl, this is the best matchup for Pac-12 teams...likely to deliver a lot of scoring, dynamic athletes and "wow" plays. Like the Fiesta Bowl, the team with the better defense is likely to win, and that team is UCLA.

UCLA 48-Baylor 44

LAS VEGAS BOWL - Washington vs. Boise State on Dec. 22
This is a good matchup too, and I think we'll see both squads out to prove something. It's also interesting that these same two teams play again in their very first game of the 2013 season. If Kellen Moore was still QB at Boise, I'd say they will win. He's not. He's now in the NFL. I think Washington eeks out an entertaining win.

UW 28-BSU 22

Week 10 Pac-12 Predictions

Well, well, well...things are starting to be clarified in the Pac-12 and nationally. Big wins by Oregon and Oregon State this week really show them off to be - along with USC - the class of the league.

Meanwhile, Notre Dame was expossed a bit as a pretender by barely beating a weak Pitt team at home in tripple overtime...and they paid the price for that by dropping in the national rankings behind Oregon.

Below is my Pac-12 BCS update and predictions for next week's games...

Pac-12 BCS Situation
Oregon is in the driver seat. Win out and they'll very likely be in the title game vs. either Alabama or Kansas State. And hey, even if they "only" win the Pac-12 title, they'll be in the Rose Bowl.

Oregon State is looking pretty good for a BCS game too. If they win out and win the league title game, that will mean they beat Oregon and the South champ. If that happens, the Beavers would at minimum be in the Rose Bowl. It's also possible that the Beavers win all the rest of their games except Oregon, finish at 11-1 and get picked up for BCS game anyway - Rose bieng the likely one.

USC, ASU and UCLA all have shots at winning the South and appearing in the Pac-12 title game...and hence, in theory, a shot at the Rose Bowl.

What I think will happen this week...

Oregon vs. Cal in Berkley. At Cal is usually a tough one for Oregon. Not this year. Yes, it's the road and yes perhaps the Ducks are suseptable to the letdown after beating USC. But I'm going to say that Oregon is just too good to lose to a depleated and demotivated Cal. Ain't going to happen. UO 31- Cal 21.

Washington vs. Utah in Seattle. UW wins this one at home to get their third in a row and become bowl eligible. I say UW 24-UU 13.

Washington State vs. UCLA in Pullman. Demotivated WSU vs. schizophrenic UCLA. The Bruins are the better team and I think they'll win. UCLA 28-WSU 17.

Oregon State vs. Stanford at Palo Alto. Hmmm. Interesting game here. I'd like to think Stanford would take care of business at home, but the Beavers are playing well. I say OSU 26-Stanford 21.

USC vs. ASU in L.A. USC has lost two in a row. But they're still USC while ASU is, well, still ASU. Talent kills hype in this one. USC 41-ASU 24.

Arizona vs. Colorado in Tucson. Arizona blew the momentum gained by beating USC by not showing up vs. UCLA last weekend and losing big. But, they're still better than Colorado and will win. UA 31-CU 9.

Week 9 Pac-12 Predictions

Some surprises last weekend. USC lost to Arizona and UW beat Oregon State. Just goes to show you that as much as you think you know how things will go...you never know.

Here is my little BCS overview and Week 9 predictions...

Pac-12 BCS Bowl Situation
Some significant movement this week in the BSC situation...mostly not good for the Pac-12.

• #4 Oregon won once again, leaving them as one of four undefeated teams at the top of the rankings. But, once again, Oregon was not rewarded for their win while other around them in the ranks were. #1 Alabama won, #2 Florida lost, #3 Kansas State won and #5 Notre Dame won. So, Ducks should be #3 now, right? Wrong, the BSC now has Notre Dame skipping over Oregon to the #3 spot. Meanwhile Kansas State slides up to #2. Sigh. 
• Meanwhile, USC lost and they now have two league losses. That eliminates them from the National Title hunt and puts their chances for a league title and Rose Bowl berth in serious jeopardy. It also devalues any Oregon win over them a bit...which won't help Oregon's chances of moving up.
• Oregon State lost for the first time. This will virtually knock them out of any talk of a National Title appearance, but they are still alive for a league title and Rose Bowl with tough games coming up.

Oregon, Oregon State, USC, Arizona, UCLA and ASU all still have a shot at the league title and the Rose Bowl.

Other than that, opportunities for any other Pac-12 team for the league title are slim or none.

Oregon could get to the National Title game if it wins all the rest of its games and finishes 13-0. Or, they may still do that and be "relegated" to the Rose Bowl.

It is also possible that if Oregon wins all its games except the Civil War against Oregon State...it could possibly still appear in a BSC Bowl as an at-large selection with a 12-1 record. Oregon State would probably not in a similar scenario because they'd have two losses if they lose the Civil War.

We'll see what next week brings. Meanwhile, here's what I think will happen this week...

Oregon vs. USC in L.A. The big one. But it got a little less big last weekend with USC choking against Arizona. None the less, Oregon's hopes for a National Title run faces a significant test here. And, both teams have a lot to play for in terms of a shot at the league title and, at worst, the Rose Bowl berth that it would earn them. I think this will be a close game - no blowout. I think both squads present significant challenges against the other. I would not be shocked if USC won this game, but sitting here thinking about all the previous games for both teams this season, I think Oregon is a bit better overall and has more depth. So, I'm going to say Oregon 34-USC 27.

Oregon State vs. ASU in Corvallis. Toss up. ASU has the talent to win, OSU may be feeling deflated after their loss to UW. I just have a feeling ASU is going to come into this one and play well...and win. I say ASU 31-OSU 24.

Stanford vs. Colorado in Boulder. It just doesn't get any easier for Colorado following successive games against USC and Oregon. Now comes Stanford. Stanford 44-CU 17.

UW vs. Cal in Berkley. UW is feeling good. Cal is not. UW does not play well on the road. Cal is at home. Both teams are wildly inconsistent. Hmm. OK, I'll say UW reverts back to its road woes and Cal wins 24-17.

WSU vs. Utah in Salt Lake City. Neither team is impressive or all that fun to watch. I'll say UU 21- WSU 20.

UCLA vs. Arizona in L.A. "Fools Gold Bowl II." Both annual pretenders to the league crown. One will win and extend their fantasy one more week while the other will lose and fulfill their yearly dive to the lower reaches of the standings. I say Arizona finally takes their step forward and wins. UA 35-UCLA 22.

Pac-12 Week 7 Predictions

Well, we learned a few things last weekend in Pac-12 play. Among them:

1) Oregon is for sure the class of the league right now. Latest evidence: an absolute curb stomp of UW for the ninth year in a row. There seems to be a bunch of teams that could finish in second place, but nobody is matching the offensive AND defensive firepower of the Ducks.

2) Oregon State, while still a threat, may not be all they are cracked up to be. Latest evidence: struggling at home to be beat WSU.

3) UCLA is proving once again they are the college football equivalent of "fools gold." Latest evidence: losing to Cal.

4) Stanford is a Jeckle and Hyde squad. Latest evidence: after losing to UW in a low scoring affair two weeks ago, they follow up with a high scoring OT win vs. Arizona.

Looking forward to this coming week's games...

Washington vs. USC in Seattle. What to think? UW rebounds at home against a now suspect USC squad? Or, USC is USC and the come in a beat the Dawgs soundly. I'll go with the latter...USC 35-UW 17.

Oregon State vs. BYU in Provo. I'll go with the Beavers until proven otherwise. I will say this though, BYU is probably better than the WSU and UCLA teams OSU has beaten so far. It would not shock me if they lost this one, but I'll go OSU 24-BYU21.

WSU vs. Cal in Pullman. Cougs are done. Cal is coming off a win and no doubt look at this one as a way to get further back on track. I say they do...Cal 28-WSU 19.

Stanford vs. Notre Dame at ND. Could be a very good game. ND is over-rated, and Stanford is - as mentioned - different each week. I'll say they show up and upset ND. Stanford 28-ND 17.

ASU vs. Colorado in Boulder. ASU big. Sun Devils 44-CU 10.

UCLA vs. Utah in LA. A battle of pretenders. UCLA is at home and does have some weapons, so I'll pick them...UCLA 37 - Utah 21.




NOT PLAYING: Oregon, Arizona

Pac-12 Week 6 Predictions

Another good week in the Pac-12 just past. What we learned, at least from a Pac-12 North perspective...

Oregon is still looking good, undefeated and #2 in the land following their 3 TD+ win over WSU. But, but one wonders how they will fare against the likes of USC, Stanford and ASU...those teams ain't WSU.

Washington finally grew a pair on defense. They manned up and really played well against the big, straight ahead run game of Stanford...and won. However, most teams UW will play from here on out have far, far more diverse offenses, more speed and better QBs. So, live it up for now Dawg fans.

WSU is done. Well, in terms of a winning season and a bowl. They just don't have it folks. They might pick up a few wins along the way, but based on last week vs. Colorado (worst team in the league) and this week vs. Oregon (best team in the league), it's clear to me that the Cougs ain't going anywhere this season.

OSU is starting to look like a real power broker in the race for the Pac-12 North and overall Pac-12 title. Civil War should be fun!

OK, looking forward...

Oregon vs. Washington in Eugene. The Ducks have beaten the Dawgs eight seasons in a row, by a lot. My feeling is that this year, the Ducks will win again...and maybe even by 2-3 TDs...but it will be a close game into the fourth quarter. I will say UO 34-UW 21.

WSU vs. Oregon State in Corvallis. Is Oregon State the real deal or just off to a hot start...and destined to fall to earth? We will not find out this week becuase WSU is not good. Beavers win at home 29-13.

Stanford vs. Arizona at Palo Alto. Should be a good game with both squads looking to bounce back after unexpected losses. I'll give it to the home team. Stanford 24-UA 17.

Cal vs. UCLA at Berkley. I think UCLA's season continues on an unexpected positive trajectory and Cal's woes continue. Bruins 34-Bears 13.

Arizona State vs. Colorado in Boulder. Sun Devils big. ASU 44-CU 10.

USC vs. Utah in Salt Lake City. Trojans big. USC 38-Utah 9.

Pac-12 Week 5 Predictions

It was a telling weened in Pac-12 play last Saturday. Let us count the ways:

1) Oregon State appears to be a lot better than they were predicted to be. Going on the road and beating an up-to-now impressive UCLA squad shows they have talent and guts not thought present before.

2) Conversely, UCLA is once again showing that they are more hype than substance. Sure, they beat weak Rice and Houston teams...and yes, they did beat Nebraska...but the first time a Pac-12 foe of any caliber shows up on their home field they lose.

3) Oregon is looking good - in particular on defense. The "D" kept the Ducks ahead in a close first half...which is how long it took the Duck "O" to get going. Once they did, they piled on 35 points, and then "D" sealed the deal late with two pick-sixes. Ducks up to #2 in the land!

4) For the second week in a row, USC did not look like a top 5 team...even though they beat Cal.

5) Oh, WSU...poor WSU. Your once promising "new start" just got derailed into "going nowheresville" as you lost to a horrible, horrible Colorado team - at home...after spoiling a late fourth quarter lead. Next up for you? Oregon.

OK, enough about last week, here's what I think will happen this week...

Oregon vs. WSU in Seattle. Cougs come out and play better in front of a Seattle crowd, maybe even keep it close in the first two quarters, but that doesn't last. Ducks win by the score of 45-17.

Oregon State vs. Arizona in Tuscon. Conventional wisdom would say Beavers keep momentum going after their UCLA win and beat up on a downtrodden Wildcats team followng their beat down at the hands of the Ducks. But no, I'm going to reverse that and say Arizona bounces back and wins 27-16.

Cal vs. Arizona State in Berkley. This should be a good match up. ASU is hot. Cal, while losing a couple close games, still has good talent. I think ASU has too much going for them and they will win 31-20.

UCLA vs. Colorado in Boulder. The Bruins are down after a loss at home to the Beavers. The Buffs are high following an unexpected win on the road at WSU. The reality of where both these squads are in 2012 sets in for as UCLA wins comfortably 33-13.

USC vs. Utah at Salt Lake City. Won't be close. USC wins 42-14.

NOTE: Washington played Stanford on Thursday and pulled off the upset 17-13, but I did not get around to predicting this week's games until that one was already over. Nice win for the Dawgs for sure, especially since their defense showed up big. A note to them, however...you're going to need to score a lot more than 17 to beat your next opponent on the road, Oregon.

Pac-12 Week 2 Predictions

Last week I was mostly right in my predictions for Pac-12 football games. Cal lost to Nevada at home...so I got that one wrong. Also, Oregon State's game with the mighty Nichols State down in Louisiana was postponed because of Hurricane Isaac...the team couldn't get to Corvallis for the game.

For the most part, Week 2 offers up more "pre-season" games for Pac-12 squads...with the exceptions of UCLA vs. Nebraska, UA vs. OK State and ASU vs. Illinois.

Here is what I think will happen...

Oregon vs. Fresno State in Eugene. Ducks dominate again...win 41-20 with the Fresno 20 coming in the second half or late in the game when the UO is playing its second and third string.

Washington vs. LSU in Baton Rouge. UW could only score 14 points on offense against San Diego State in their opener last week. They'll have to do MUCH better vs. LSU to have a chance, but that won't happen and LSU will win by the score of 42-10.

Washington State vs. Eastern Washington. An easy win for WSU, right? No, I don't think so. I do think they'll win however by the score of 21-16.

Arizona vs. Oklahoma State in Tucson. Last year the Cowboys beat up on Arizona in Stillwater. I think they will win again even those this game is at home for the Wildcats. OK State 31-14 over Arizona.

Illinois vs. ASU in Tempe. Not sure on this one. I'll go with Illinois in a close one...21-20.

USC vs. Syracuse in New Jersey. Not even close...USC 44-10 over the Orangemen.

UCLA vs. Nebraska in LA. UCLA beat Rice and Nebraska defeated Southern Miss in a pair of tune-up games last week. Home field gives the Bruins some hope, but again with UCLA...until I actually see it on the field of play vs. a good team, I won't believe the annual hype around the squad from Westwood. Nebraska 36-17.

Cal vs. Southern Utah at Berkley. Hmmm. I was pretty sure Cal would beat Nevada at home last week. I was wrong. None the less, I think they'll be ready to go and beat Southern Utah. I say they get on track to the tune of a 28-10 win.

Stanford vs. Duke in Palo Alto. Stanford had a trickier time than I thought with San Jose State last week, but - like Cal - I think they'll be able to defeat a weaker opponent this week and win 24-6.

Oregon State vs. Wisconsin in Corvallis. OSU is not as bad as people think, and the Badgers are not as good as people think with Russell Wilson now in the NFL. But, "the other UW" wins comfortably by the score of 27-13.

Colorado vs. Sacramento State in Boulder. CU is not a good team. Sac State is worse...they lost big to New Mexico State last week. Buffs get the win, 21-9.

Utah vs. Utah State in Logan, Utah. A few years ago this would be a laugher with everyone assuming the Utes would win. But, State has come a long ways...just not far enough to win vs. an improving Utah team. Utes 29-13 victors.