Pac-12 Week 1 Predictions

My predictions for Week 1 of the Pac-12 season are...

Oregon vs. Nichols State in Eugene. Ummm, what do you think will happen in this one? That's right, we all agree. Oregon blows out NSU 57-10 - at least.

UW vs. Boise State in Seattle. BSU beat UW in the Vegas Bowl to end last season. I think the Dawgs get revenge and beat the Broncos 23-17 in brand new Husky Stadium to start the season off right.

Oregon State vs. Eastern Washington in Corvallis. Normally you'd think the Beavers would just roll a lower division opponent, but a) EWU is good, and b) OSU has lost these type of games at home in recent history. None the less, I'll say Oregon State wins 28-21.

WSU vs. Auburn in Auburn, Alabama. Well, what a way to start the season, huh? Road trip to SEC country. Even though Auburn ain't what it used to be, I say War Eagle wins 24-14.

Cal vs. Northwestern in Berkley. Home advantage for Cal, but Northwestern pulls the upset 27-24.

UCLA vs. Nevada in L.A. Nevada is not the chump it used to be, but they're not good enough to beat the Bruins in week one. I say UCLA wins 31-17.

USC vs. Hawaii in Honolulu. Nice place to start your season, right? The islands are kind to the Trojans as they roll up The Rainbow Warriors big, 45-21.

Arizona vs. Northern Arizona in Tucson. NAU is good. They might win this one, but I'll say Wildcats prevail 31-30.

Utah vs. Utah State in Salt Lake City. Good rivalry match up to start the season. The woes start early for the Utes as the Aggies win 27-13.

Colorado vs. Colorado State in Denver. Another in-state, cross-conference rivalry kick off game. I like it. I also like CSU to win it 23-10.

Stanford and Arizona State stay on summer vacation with a BYE this week.

OK, So Mabye I'm Not AS Upset As I Thought

OK, after sleeping on it...I'm going to soften my reaction to the Ducks' three point loss to Auburn in the championship game.

Yes, the Ducks played pretty well. Yes, they tied the game up late in the fourth quarter. Yes they "contained" Newton quite well. Yes they still could have still won. Yes they only lost on a last second field goal by Auburn. And yes, the season is one to be proud of.

It just came down to two things:

• Oregon made a few little mistakes like getting caught for a safety (2 pts. to Auburn) and deciding to not kick a field goal and go for a TD on 4th down (didn't make it and essentially gave up 3 pts.). That's 5 points right there. Had they kicked the field goal and not given up the safety, that probably would have won them the game had other things gone the same. Throw in a couple tournovers on drives that were looking promising for at least a field goal and...well, you have enough mistakes to cost you.
• The game flow went the way of Auburn, not Oregon. Auburn did pretty much bottle up the Oregon running and kick return game, they played decent enough pass defense to keep the Ducks from scoring too much and the Auburn offense had 2-3 really long, really good drives that they paid of with TDs....including one to end the game. Hey, if Oregon stops 'em on that drive, they could have maybe scored to win or forced overtime...but they didn't.

Heavy sigh.

Oh well. I'm over the shock of it, and still not feeling great about being THAT CLOSE to winning the big one only to come away short. But, I'm feeling a lot better.

Oregon Loses BCS Title Game to Auburn

Despite a great effort, the Oregon Ducks lost the college football BCS National Championship game to the Auburn Tigers nonight by the score of 22-19.

While disappointing to me, Auburn definitely earned the win...nothing cheap or lucky about it. Oregon was beat by a better team, and Auburn is clearly the best squad in college football this season. Congratulations to them.

Countdown To "The Natty" - Gameday Review

OK all you Oregon Duck, Auburn Tiger and college football fans, the big day is here - the BCS Championship Game kicks off later today in Glendale, AZ.

I've been counting down the days to this game with a series of questions and attempted answers on issues about both teams. I've called it "Countdown to the Natty."

To brush up before you settle in and watch the game, below are all the posts in one place for a review prior to kickoff.

Just click on the headline to access each post:

COUNTDOWN TO "THE NATTY"

• Does America Even Know Oregon Is In This Game?
• Do We Have The Best Matchup?
• Do Tight Wins Signal Trouble for Auburn?
• Will Oregon's Pace Wear Auburn Down?
• Does Winning the SEC Give Auburn An Advantage?
• Who Can Contain Who?
• Is Stopping the Oregon Run Enough for Auburn to Win the Game?
• What Will The Role of Special Teams Be? Who Has The Advantage?
• What Can Bowl Results Tell Us About How Oregon and Auburn Match Up?
• How Does Auburn Win?
• How Does Oregon Win?
• Who Will Win The Game?

Countdown to "The Natty" - Who Will Win the Game?

Well, here we are...game day for the college football National Championship Game.

If you've been reading along on this blog over the past week or so toyou will have read my thoughts on various aspects of this game via the "Countdown to the Natty" series I've published.

But, really, there's only ever been one question...and it's the only remaining one to addres. That is....

Who will win this game?

I've given this a lot of thought. I've gone back and forth many times. I think it's going to be a close game. I think Auburn has the best player in the country. I think Oregon has weapons galore. Will Cam Newton dominate? Will Oregon wear out the Tigers? There are so many angles and aspects to consider. One thing is for sure to me, whichever team wins...you'll know that they are truly the best college football team this season.

But no more delaying. The time has come to man up and make a prediction.

Therefore, I will go on the record and say that I think the winner of this game will be...

...Oregon.

Yes I am bias. Yes I am a huge Oregon fan.

But I'm also someone who has seen all the Oregon games, seen several Auburn games and many of their highlights. And, the one time I picked against Oregon this season (vs. Stanford...a big team with a great QB...sound familiar?) I was proven quite wrong by the Ducks.

So I'm going with Oregon.

Barring an injury that takes out either teams' QB, I think the game will go like this:

• Auburn takes the early lead, maybe even by a couple TDs.
• Newton looks unstoppable.
• Oregon's offense scores, but not at the same pace as Auburn.
• Queue the non-stop praise for Newton and the Tigers by the announcers.
• But, by halftime lo and behold its only a 7 to 10 point lead for Auburn.
• The third quarter starts similarly with both teams having a possession and likely scoring.
• But then by the mid third quarter Oregon's offense really starts to click as Auburn's D gets tired...and the Oregon D starts to slow down Newton. Advantage Oregon with a score.
• Oregon then gets a special teams score...or it could be a turn over that is cashed in with a score
• It's even or a one score game going into the fourth quarter.
• The dynamics in favor of Oregon continue and Oregon takes a 3-7 point lead with 6-9 minutes left
• Auburn gets the ball with a chance to drive, score and re-take the lead...but cannot.
• Oregon gets the ball back and grinds out the last 4-5 minutes and wins the game as Newton sits on the bench watching it happen.

I suspect there are small probabilities out there that Auburn and Newton absolutely dominate the Ducks or that Oregon flattens the Tigers from the opening kick...but I really doubt those scenarios will happen. Both teams are too good, too motivated and too well coached.

No, the main reason I think it'll go this way is that its the way all but one Oregon game went this year. And even in that one "off" game (at Cal), the Ducks still shut down the other team's offense.

Meanwhile, I think Auburn has shown that while they can play spectacular at times, they have been challenged in getting and keeping a lead. Obviously, they've had the lead at the end of each game, but several times it was really in doubt. They look more vulnerable than Oregon and Oregon has proved it can take advantage of vulnerabilities.

I am sure that I've now jinxed the Ducks and they'll lose 52-10, but in trying to look at it as objectively as I can before hand, I think Oregon wins. I think they are the slightly better team.

Here's hoping, and...

GO DUCKS!

Countdown to "The Natty" - Does America Even Know Oregon Is In This Game?

To count down each day between now and the National Championship college football game (aka "The Natty") on Jan. 10, 2011 between the University of Oregon and Auburn University I will pose and attempt to answer a daily question about the match up. On Jan. 10, I'll answer the question, "who will win the game?"

I'll start out with a question that's been on my mind since viewing the media coverage of college football following the end of the regular season...

Does America even know Oregon is playing in the national championship game?

Oh, you didn't know the University of Oregon is playing the BCS college football national championship game on Jan. 10, 2011?

Well, I can't blame you. That's because the media - especially ESPN - is monolithically focused on Auburn QB Cam Newtwon and the Auburn team. They're cranked up full tilt to promote this wonderful player and the season his team had.

Between talk about the Heisman Trophy winning Newton (some of it bad by the way given off-the-field issues) and the Tigers undefeated run through the SEC - assumed (not by me) to be the best conference in college football - it's the all Auburn-all-the-time show on TV and online.

Sure, if you look hard enough, you'll see that there is this team from this place called Oregon (isn't that somewhere out there next to Kansas or maybe west of Michigan?) that somehow has a role in Auburn's ultimate fate this season. But, that's about it.

I actually think this is good for the Ducks. The media hype and attention on Newton and Auburn clearly paints Oregon as the underdog and feeds that underdog mentality among the Oregon coaches and players...motivation.

Meanwhile, even if Auburn's coaches and players are focused on the game, they cannot NOT notice the massive accolades being heaped upon them. That's gotta have an affect...as an Oregon fan, at least I hope it does. Ratchet up "the pressure" on them to deliver, make them take Oregon too lightly, etc.

We'll see.

In the meantime, you are on notice that indeed the 12-0, Pac-10 champion (two years running) Oregon Ducks are the competition for Auburn in the championship game. And, they score more points per game, amass more yards per game and statistically have a better defense. But you wouldn't know it. Now you do.

Check back tomorrow and each day between now and Jan. 10 to hear a new question about the game and my thoughts in attempting to answer.