Countdown to "The Natty" - Does America Even Know Oregon Is In This Game?

To count down each day between now and the National Championship college football game (aka "The Natty") on Jan. 10, 2011 between the University of Oregon and Auburn University I will pose and attempt to answer a daily question about the match up. On Jan. 10, I'll answer the question, "who will win the game?"

I'll start out with a question that's been on my mind since viewing the media coverage of college football following the end of the regular season...

Does America even know Oregon is playing in the national championship game?

Oh, you didn't know the University of Oregon is playing the BCS college football national championship game on Jan. 10, 2011?

Well, I can't blame you. That's because the media - especially ESPN - is monolithically focused on Auburn QB Cam Newtwon and the Auburn team. They're cranked up full tilt to promote this wonderful player and the season his team had.

Between talk about the Heisman Trophy winning Newton (some of it bad by the way given off-the-field issues) and the Tigers undefeated run through the SEC - assumed (not by me) to be the best conference in college football - it's the all Auburn-all-the-time show on TV and online.

Sure, if you look hard enough, you'll see that there is this team from this place called Oregon (isn't that somewhere out there next to Kansas or maybe west of Michigan?) that somehow has a role in Auburn's ultimate fate this season. But, that's about it.

I actually think this is good for the Ducks. The media hype and attention on Newton and Auburn clearly paints Oregon as the underdog and feeds that underdog mentality among the Oregon coaches and players...motivation.

Meanwhile, even if Auburn's coaches and players are focused on the game, they cannot NOT notice the massive accolades being heaped upon them. That's gotta have an affect...as an Oregon fan, at least I hope it does. Ratchet up "the pressure" on them to deliver, make them take Oregon too lightly, etc.

We'll see.

In the meantime, you are on notice that indeed the 12-0, Pac-10 champion (two years running) Oregon Ducks are the competition for Auburn in the championship game. And, they score more points per game, amass more yards per game and statistically have a better defense. But you wouldn't know it. Now you do.

Check back tomorrow and each day between now and Jan. 10 to hear a new question about the game and my thoughts in attempting to answer.

Pac-10 Bowl Predictions

Here are my predictions for Pac-10 bowl games that are not the BSC Championship Game...

Holiday Bowl: 6-6 Washington vs. 10-3 and #18 ranked Nebraska on Dec. 30 in San Diego
Earlier this season Nebraska visited Husky Stadium in Seattle and absolutely obliterated the Huskies by the score of 56-21. As bad as that score is for the Dawgs, it was actually worse than that. UW could not stop the Cornhuskers and could not get anything going on their own offense. It was a first class beat-down.

OK, so how is this going to be a game worth watching? Well, the Huskies did improve some since their early season drubbing by Nebraska, and Nebraska - despite finishing with a very nice 10-3 record - cooled off. So, the gap between the teams is probably closer. Also, this is the second year in a row that Nebraska is playing a Pac-10 team in the Holiday Bowl. Last year they killed Arizona by the score of 33-0. Between already having beaten UW and having played in and dominated this bowl last season, Nebraska may not be as motivated as Washington - a team seeking its first bowl win in a long, long time.

Prediction: Nebraska wins 41-24. All of the above considered, I just don't think UW can compete with Nebraska and they will roll the Huskies again.

Alamo Blow: 7-5 Arizona vs. 10-3 and #14 ranked Oklahoma State on Dec. 29 in San Antonio
This one also seems to be a mis-match. Oklahoma State is coming off quite a good season, including playing in the Big-12 championship game. Meanwhile, Arizona finished its season by losing its last four games in a row. The Wildcats are probably better than what their record indicates and could give OK St. some troubles, especially through the air. However, I don't see them winning this game against a well-rounded, quality team.

Prediction: Oklahoma State wins 28-17.

Orange Bowl: 11-1 and #4 ranked Stanford vs. 11-2 and #13 ranked Virginia Tech on Jan. 3 in Miami
Conventional wisdom suggests that this will be a blow out by Stanford. Certainly they will dominate the champion of the underpowered Big East, right? After all, isn't VA Tech the team that lost both to Boise State and James Madison this season? And, wasn't Stanford QB Andrew Luck the runner-up in the voting for the Heisman award this season? For sure, Stanford will roll...right? Well, maybe that could happen. However, more likely will be that VT's own dynamic QB weapon Tyrod Taylor will have some success against the Stanford D and we'll get a closer game than most people think.

Prediction: Stanford wins 31-24. With a win, Stanford could finish as high as #2 in the nation if TCU loses the Rose Bowl to Wisconsin and Oregon were to lose to Auburn in the BCS Championship Game.

So, to summarize, I think the Pac-10 will be 1-2 in bowl games before Oregon plays Auburn for the BSC championship. I'll predict that one just before the game.

Ducks!

The Oregon Ducks football team has won the 2010 Civil War game, the 2010 Pac-10 championship and are now off to play in the National Championship Game!

QUACK!!!!



Week Six Predictions - Pac-10 Football

Predictions for this week's Pac-10 football games...

Oregon beats WSU 55-17 in Pullman. I think Oregon could score more than 55, but this one may get out of hand early. Clock killing by the Ducks and second/third stringers playing may limit scoring. I think WSU gets a TD and FG in meaningful play and one TD in scrub time. I can only say that I hope the above does not jinx my Ducks.

Washington beats ASU 28-24 in Seattle. These teams are pretty evenly matched in my book. Home field and confidence coming off a big win at USC gives the Huskies the advantage against ASU who has lost three in a row.

Stanford beats USC 31-21 in Palo Alto. Stanford is very good on offense. USC is suspect on defense. Meanwhile, the Stanford D is good enough to hold on. Plus, USC is deflated in getting beat by the Huskies.

Arizona beats OSU 27-17 in Tuscon. Arizona is better than the Beavers and they are playing at home after a bye. Enough said.

Cal beats UCLA 17-10 in Berkley. Low scoring game. Cal is coming off a bye and is playing at home. UCLA has been impressive in some games (beat Texas and a ranked Houston team) and very sketchy in others (WSU, Kansas St.) and I think they'll be beat this week.

Pac-10 Football 2010 Straight Ahead - Season Picks

I'm getting excited for the upcoming college football season! Most schools start their schedules this weekend.

Of course at this time of the year hope springs eternal and the talk is all about what's going to happen...predicting.

In thinking about the Pac-10 and which teams might do what this season, I realized that over the past 6-7 seasons, each Pac-10 football team has performed in remarkably similar fashion over that period of time. For example and in no particular order:

• USC - dominates wire-to-wire
• OSU - starts slow but finishes strong
• Cal - starts strong but fades in the second half of the season
• Oregon - erratic, can beat anyone but can lose to anyone too
• UW - not very good beginning to end of the season
• WSU - lose virtually every game
• ASU - always picked to be a contender, never delivers
• UCLA - see ASU comment
• UA - See ASU comment (except for last season)
• Stanford - scrappy team making headway

And guess what? I bet this is exactly what happens again this year...with two exceptions. Those are: 1) I doubt USC will dominate everyone and even if they do it does not matter as they are not eligible to win the conference due to NCAA penalties, 2) I think UW will be better and could win as many as eight games.

Past that, I think we're going to see these programs perform similar to their recent track record:

• Oregon may go 11-1 and win the league going away, or they could go 7-5 (or worse).
• OSU could be a contender if they start even a game or two faster than most seasons.
• Inversely, Cal could contend if they don't fade as early as in recent seasons.
• ASU, UCLA and UA...well, I just won't believe they're Pac-10 title contenders until I actually see it happen. More likely they will be the "middle of the pack."

All that said, here is my prediction for the upcoming Pac-10 season:

1. Oregon - stars align enough that they come out on top, Darron Thomas performs well at QB, BSC bowl
2. USC - good team does well, but cannot play post season
3. OSU - similar story to last season...solid team, start a bit slow, finish very strong, bowl
4. Stanford - the scrappy team keeps scrapping and getting better, very good QB helps, bowl
5. UW - Locker finally is consistent and the team surprises, wins enough to get to a bowl
6. UA - comedown from last year and back to underachieving, might make a bowl 
7. Cal - late season fade comes earlier this season, no bowl
8. UCLA - don't believe the hype
9. ASU - sorry, not this year either
10. WSU - sad but true, may lose 9 or more games

There. Those are my picks. I did them in the moment here just before the season starts, and it's eerie how similar they are to my thoughts following spring practices earlier this year. At least I'm consistent.

In the end, I think trends and tendencies from the past will continue for the most part this season.

For those of you who say sure Marc, you  picked Oregon to win it because that's your school, I say you are correct in part...but the other part is that I honestly challenge you at this stage of the year to tell me there is a better team Pac-10 team front-to-back, O and D than the Ducks. Another team might end up being better, sure, but as of now I don't see one better as we kick off the season. Hey, I know Oregon will eventually slide...all programs do and football is cyclical...but I don't think it'll be in 2010.

Here's to an entertaining season.

Pac-10 Football - Spring Brings Hope

It's been a long, dry walk in the Gobi in terms of action in my favorite sport - college football.

Well, most schools have now completed their spring practices...typically capped with a intra-squad spring game. My Alma Matter - the University of Oregon - just played their game this past weekend. The great thing is that no matter what school you follow, spring gives you hope.

For anyone who follows the Pac-10, you certainly have heard about 3-4 players from the Ducks football squad who had run-ins with the law this past winter - the most significant being QB Jeremiah Masoli who is now suspended for the full 2010 season.

However, what you may not know is that the Duck are loaded on offense, including two very capable QBs in senior Nate Costa and near Dennis Dixon clone Daron Thomas. Plus, Masoli never played defense or special teams. And, if that wasn't enough...the Duck D is looking very good.

So, I'm going to go ahead and bait controversy and say that the Ducks are going to win the Pac-10 again in 2010. This is mostly based on the significant number of returning players the team has from its championship season last year, but also based on the fact that no other Pac-10 team is - at least to me - clearly better.

Washington? Probably better than last year. Hell, they might even finish in the top three of the league. But, I don't think they are the best team. I definitely don't agree with the UW radio announcers who declared this spring that the Huskies are league champion contenders and their QB as a top level Heisman Trophy candidate. USC? OK, well, new coach, major losses to the draft and graduation. I'm sure they'll win more than they lose (might even beat my Ducks down in LA), but I am not sure their the class of the league. Could win it if they get a few breaks. Top three for sure. UCLA, Arizona, Cal, ASU? All four are hyped every year and every year all four find ways to tank it. I will only believe these schools will win the Pac-10 when they actually do it. So, this is your middle of the pack. WSU? Forget it. Sorry, I like the Cougs, but they're not winning the Pac-10 this year. Stanford? Not that's an interesting team. I'm going to say they finish in the top half of the league - maybe outside chance they win it all. That leaves the hated Oregon State Beavers. Despite losing their senior QB, they return a lot of talent and I think we could be looking at another "Civil War for the Roses" come late fall.

Below is my predicted order of finish:

1. Oregon
2. USC
3. Oregon State
4. Standford
5. Washington
6. Arizona
7. Cal
8. Arizona State
9. UCLA
10. Washington State

1-3 could be these teams but in different order, 4-9 are pretty even too. Sorry WSU.

Hey, I know a lot can happen between now and the first weekend of games - not to mention as the season progresses. But right now, coming off of spring practices, keeping focus on my favorite team and their league...I'm feeling pretty good about the Ducks' chances in 2010.

OK, now that I've jinxed the Ducks with my confidence - thus ensuring a disappointing season - I'll wait to see how it all unfolds starting in September.

Duck Record Defended

The other day the local sports radio station was discussing college sports in the northwest generally, and the subject of the rivalry between my alma mater the University of Oregon Ducks and the hated Oregon State Beavers came up. 

One of the on-air personalities said, "no doubt about it, Oregon State has the better football program...nobody other than USC has won more games over the past five seasons."

Well, that's not true. Must be wishful thinking from a sour Husky-lover.

Yes, it is true that USC has dominated in Pac-10 college football. No question there.

But, on the question of UO vs. OSU, the realities are that over the past five football seasons:

• UO has won 41 football games, OSU has won 40...so, who has won more games? The Ducks.


• UO has finished ranked #9 (2008), #23 (2007) and #12 (2004) while OSU has finished #18 (2008), #25 (2007) and #21 (2006)...so, who has finished with higher rankings? The Ducks.


• UO football finished 2nd in the Pac-10 in 2008, fourth in 2007, fifth in 2006, second in 2005 and fifth in 2004. OSU finished third in 2008, third in 2007, third in 2006, seventh in 2005 and fourth in 2004. So, a mixed bag, and clearly not enough to back up the "OSU is a better program" brag. OSU is more consistent as the third best Pac-10 program, but Oregon has more top 2 finishes over the past five seasons.


• It is true that OSU has won 3 of the past 5 "Civil War" games, so give them their due. But it also needs to be noted that those wins were very, very close games (2 were OT wins) while the two Oregon wins were absolute blow outs...including the UO win in the recently concluded season. So again, not a clear indication that "OSU is the better program" by any stretch.

So, there you have it...proof that the statement "Oregon State is clearly a better football program than Oregon over the past five seasons" is false. You can see that in fact, the Oregon Ducks have won more games and finished higher in the season-ending rankings over the past five seasons than the Oregon State. Meanwhile, other typical measures to compare the two are a wash at best.

Sorry for the tangent everybody, but Duck honor needed to be defended...this needed to be set straight.