Pac-12 Football: 2014 Final Standings + League Title Prediction

What a season! Great games, upsets, road teams winning, Hail Mary victories, a front-runner Heisman candidate, a player named Scooby and great performances from a lot of players.

In total I went 64-19 in predicting winners of Pac-12 games this season. That's a 70% rate of success. Pretty good.

Below is how I thought the standings would be at the end of the season and then how they actually turned out. And below that is how I think the Pac-12 Title Game will go.

NORTH DIVISION

Here is how I predicted the teams in this division would finish...

1. Oregon
2. Stanford 
3. Oregon State 
4. UW 
5. WSU
6. Cal 

Here is how they actually finished...

1. Oregon (11-1, 8-1)
2. Stanford (7-5, 5-4)
3. UW (8-5, 4-5) 
4. Cal (5-7, 3-6)
5. WSU (3-9, 2-7)
6. Oregon State (5-7, 2-7)

I got the first two and fifth place correct, but otherwise it was a jumble with UW and Cal performing a bit better than I thought and Oregon State a lot worse. Overall, despite some good games, this division ended up being Oregon and then everyone else. The Ducks swept every school...and, other than WSU, by a lot of points.

Game of the season: Oregon beats Stanford, stopping a two season skid against the Cardinal and latching onto the North Division lead for good. 

Next: All this puts Oregon into the Pac-12 title game Friday.

SOUTH DIVISION
Here is how I predicted the teams in this division would finish...

1. UCLA
2. USC
3. ASU
4. UA
5. Utah
6. CU

Here is how they actually finished...

1. UA (10-2, 7-2) 
2. UCLA (9-3, 6-3) 
3. ASU (9-3, 6-3)
4. USC (8-4, 6-3)
5. Utah (8-4, 5-4)
6. CU (2-10, 0-9) 

I got spots 3, 5 and 6 correct. But, Arizona played much better than I thought they would with a new QB and replacing some key players on both sides of the ball. Meanwhile, UCLA under-performed...I bought into the annual UCLA hype this year and should not have. And USC had an OK year, but not as good as their talent would suggest.

Game of the season: Way too many to pick just one. But, I'll try...ASU beats UCLA in the last game of the regular season. This eliminates the Bruins from winning the South Division and catapults UA into that position.

Next: These results put Arizona into the Pac-12 title game Friday.

Pac-12 TITLE GAME - Dec. 5, 2014 

Oregon Ducks vs. Arizona Wildcats in Santa Clara, CA at 6 p.m. Pacific 
By virtue of its better record, Oregon is the "home" team, but this is a neutral site match up.

This is obviously a compelling game. Here are several reasons why...

Oregon: If they win, not only will they re-capture the league title for the first time in three seasons, but they will be a lock to get into the four-team national championship playoff. And that would likely be in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1. Oh, and barring a bad game, QB Mariota is probably your 2014 Heisman Trophy winner. And if all that wasn't enough for the Ducks to be motivated, Arizona is the team that gave them their one loss earlier in the season...so revenge will be a factor. If Oregon loses, for the third season in a row they will be relegated to the odd situation of being second banana in a league they dominated. Sure, they'll still probably get a decent bowl, but no playoff and no Heisman.

Arizona: These are heady days for Arizona's football program. Sure, by all rights they should have lost to UW and were only saved by a super bone headed coaching decision by Washington to not "take a knee" at the end of that game. But, they now have a chance to win their first Pac title ever. That is their motivation. That and of course trying to show their earlier victory over UO was not a fluke. If they beat the favored Ducks, they'll have an outside shot at the playoff (depending on what else happens nationally) but more likely a sweet New Years Day bowl. If they lose, they drop to a being a three-loss team and while they will go bowling and probably still be ranked, it'll be quite a bit less of a season for them.

Big Picture: How Oregon does in this game will have a direct impact on which schools are in the four team national title playoff. If the Ducks win, they're in...locking up one of the four spots. If they lose, then another school will get in.

What do I think will happen in this game?

I think Oregon will win this time against Arizona. It'll be a hard fought, tough game for a half...maybe even three quarters. Arizona will put points on the board, sure. But, this time around Oregon will pull away and win by a couple scores. Why do I think this? A few reasons:

1) Oregon has a healthy offensive line this time. Due to a wave of injuries, in October they were starting walk ons and Freshmen at most spots on the line against UA. It showed. The running game was extremely limited, Mariota was hurried and sacked a lot and the Ducks were unable to take advantage of the aggressive Arizona defense. Additionally, key defensive players left the game because of injury too. It was still a very close game, but the Ducks could not do enough to win. However, since getting many/most their starters back on the line...

2) Oregon's offense has ramped up considerably and they are hitting on all cylinders. Loads of talent and experience all over the field. This time, I expect the Ducks to make Arizona pay for their aggressive play on defense with more yards, more first downs and more points.

3) Oregon's defense has steadily improved. In the defeat to Arizona they looked lost and unprepared. Horrible to be honest. Since then they've gotten better and better each week - particularly at linebacker. Arizona feasted on the short pass over the middle or to the flat followed by long runs by the receiver. That was poor linebacker play...something that has greatly improved since. Also, the Ducks have gotten a much better pass rush since the loss. And I highly doubt there will be any stupid "unsportsmanlike conduct" penalties for celebration such as the one that created the Arizona drive that cost the Ducks the earlier game with Arizona.

My prediction is that these three factors will be clearly on display and will add up to an Oregon win:

Oregon 45-UA 28

Week 5 Pac-12 Predictions

And now it begins. Yes, league play. No more cream puffs to practice on.

Here is what I think will happen this week...

Oregon (3-0, 0-0) vs. Cal in (1-2, 0-0) Eugene. Oregon will win this one. If this was at Cal I'd say you never know 'cause I have seen some CRAZY things happen to the Ducks when they play in Berkely. But this one's in Oregon...at night. UO 44-Cal 20.

Washington (3-0, 0-0) vs. Arizona (3-0, 0-0) in Seattle. OK, the Huskies have it going, but they've played poor competition so far. UA is a much stiffer challenge. This one is in Seattle and with the Dawgs getting the hang of their new O, I think they will come out on top in a high scoring game. UW 49-UA 44.

WSU (3-1, 1-0) vs. Stanford (3-0, 0-0) in Pullman. Nice start for the Cougs so far this season. Hope springs eternal that WSU will win at least six and get to a bowl game. But one of those wins won't be this weekend. Stanford rolls up the Cougars. Stanford 33-WSU 17.

Oregon State (3-1, 1-0) vs. Colorado (2-0, 0-0) in Corvallis. Hmmm. Interesting matchup. An over achieving Buffalos squad and an underachieving OS team. Could go either way. I'll go with the home team. OS 24-CU 10.

USC (3-1, 0-1) vs. ASU (2-1, 0-1) in Tempe. Two teams questioning where they're at so early in the season. I think ASU has a shot here. I'll pick them to win. ASU 28-USC 24.

Utah and UCLA have the weekend off.

Pac-12 Week 4 Predictions

Well, I was wrong about Oregon last week. Oh, they won just like a predicted. But where I was wrong was by how much. I thought the big SEC boys from Tennessee would, based on talent alone, keep this one close and Oregon would pull away in the fourth quarter. Turns out it was close only in the first quarter and the Ducks ended up pulling away before halftime on their way to a 59-14 win.

Meanwhile, UW got its second win...this time on the road. Although not too impressive of a victory it still puts them in good position to go 3-0 before they start league play.

And, you have to hand it to ASU and UCLA for taking on Big 10 powers Wisconsin and Nebraska respectively and coming away with wins.

Here's what I think will happen this weekend...

Washington (2-0, 0-0) vs. Idaho State in Seattle. The Huskies will advance to 3-0 with an easy win in this one. UW 41-ISU 9.

WSU (2-1, 1-0) vs. Idaho in Pullman. Conventional wisdom would say any team that can go down to LA and beat USC should have no problem with Idaho at home. But we're talking about the Cougs here, and USC ain't the same this year. So who knows. None the less, I'll say WSU 27 - Idaho 13.

Oregon State (2-1, 1-0) vs. San Diego State in San Diego. The Beavs barely won in OT vs. Utah last week, so I say this is not a "gimmie" for them. Still, I think they'll win. OSU 24 - SDSU 17.

Stanford (2-0, 0-0) vs. Arizona State (2-0, 0-0) in Palo Alto. The only true league game this week. Stanford has played far inferior competition in their first two while ASU has taken out Wisconsin. And this one is in the desert. I call an early upset with the Sun Devils pulling it off. ASU 31-Stanford 28.

UCLA (2-0, 0-0) vs. New Mexico State in Los Angeles. UCLA once again proved it's the real deal this year by going into Nebraska and winning last week. They will have no trouble with NMSU. Bruins 44 - NMSU 13.

Utah (2-1, 0-1) vs. BYU in Provo. In-state battle of the biggest two universities. BYU is pretty good. Utah is not. I'll say BYU wins 27-20.

USC (2-1, 0-1) vs. Utah State in Los Angeles. USC is not up to its normal standards this season and Utah State is no pushover any more. But, I think the Trojan talent will win out. USC 28-USU 17.


Oregon, Cal, Arizona and Colorado all have byes this weekend and will be back in action Sept. 28.

Pac-12 Week 3 Predictions

Wow. That was a pretty dang good weekend for the Pac-12 last Saturday. WSU upset USC in LA in the first league game, Oregon blew out Virginia on the road, Oregon State notched a win, Cal got a scare from Portland State but put them away in the end and Stanford finally got into action with a win.

With most teams still playing out-of-conference games this week, what will happen? Here's what I think...

#2 Oregon (2-0 overall, 0-0 in league play) vs. Tennessee in Eugene. Pac-12 vs. SEC...in the Northwest! What? SEC teams are notorious for a) not playing challenging out-of-conference games, and b) not traveling outside the south to play out-of-conference games. So, big kudos to the Vols for coming to Eugene in return for the Ducks playing in Tennessee a couple years ago. How will this one go? I predict the Ducks will win - moving to 3-0 entering league play. But, I don't think it will be the blowout that the last two weeks have been. I think Tennessee has some great athletes and will challenge Oregon some. I say UO 31-Tenn 20.

#20 Washington (1-0, 0-0) vs. Illinois in Chicago. Is UW for real? Was the win vs. Boise State last week a preview of a newly blossomed powerhouse? Or, was that more chalked up to the emotion of opening the new stadium and the fact that Boise is, in reality, not that good...they've said goodbye to 13 starters from last season. Well, the road will be a good test for the Huskies and provide some indication. Illinois is not a world-beater, but they are a Big 10 team and this is on the road in Chicago. I think the Huskies get it done though. UW 27-Illinois 17.

Oregon State (1-1, 0-0) vs. Utah (2-0, 0-0) in Salt Lake City. Neither team has played high quality opponents and both teams are suspect. I think Utah may win this one, but I'll give the nod to OS as I think they have superior tallent on both sides of the ball. Oregon State 19-Utah 10.

WSU (1-1, 1-0) vs. Southern Utah in Pullman. How about them Cougs!? Not only did they upset USC in L.A., but they held the Trojans to seven points. Wow. Who knew the WSU defense was up to that? And who knew USC's normally potent offense would be so anemic? Either way, the Cougs got a big one and will continue their roll with a big win over Southern Utah. WSU 28-SU 9.

#5 Stanford (1-0, 0-0) vs. Army at West Point. The Cardinal beat up on a weak San Jose State team to open its season and gets only a slightly more difficult challenge this week. Stanford wins this one too. Stan 31-Army 6.

Cal (1-1, 0-0) vs. #3 Ohio State at Berkley. This is a real nice match-up. Don't underestimate Cal. They've been getting their "sea legs" under them with a new coach over the last couple weeks and have good talent on their roster. They've also already played a Big 10 school, Northwestern. Could they upset the highly ranked Buckeyes? Yes, they could. But they won't. Cal makes it interesting for a while but OSU wins. OSU 30-Cal17.

#18 UCLA (1-0, 0-0) vs. #22 Nebraska in Lincoln. Another good one! UCLA is on the road for this game. I call upset on this one. The Cornhuskers will win a close one. Neb 24-UCLA 21.

Arizona (2-0, 0-0) vs. University of Texas San Antonio in Tucson. This one won't be interesting or close. UA 49-UTSA 13.

Arizona State (1-0, 0-0) vs. Wisconsin in Tempe. A third Pac-12 vs. Big 10 match up for this weekend. I like it. While certainly Wisconsin could win it, I think ASU pulls it out at home...and perhaps pull away in the fourth quarter. ASU 41 - Wisc 27.

Colorado (2-0, 0-0) vs. Fresno State in Boulder. Check out Colorado at 2-0. Nice. Now they get the Bulldogs at home. As much as I'd like to see the Buffs move on to 3-0, I think reality returns this week and they drop this game to Fresno State. FSU 27-CU 17.

USC (1-1, 0-1) vs. Boston College in L.A. Hmmm. Not sure what to make of USC at this point. I'll go with the fact that this is in L.A. and, despite their start this season, USC is USC. I'll take the Trojans to win. USC 20-BC 14.

Pac-12 Week 1 Predictions

My predictions for Week 1 of the Pac-12 season are...

Oregon vs. Nichols State in Eugene. Ummm, what do you think will happen in this one? That's right, we all agree. Oregon blows out NSU 57-10 - at least.

UW vs. Boise State in Seattle. BSU beat UW in the Vegas Bowl to end last season. I think the Dawgs get revenge and beat the Broncos 23-17 in brand new Husky Stadium to start the season off right.

Oregon State vs. Eastern Washington in Corvallis. Normally you'd think the Beavers would just roll a lower division opponent, but a) EWU is good, and b) OSU has lost these type of games at home in recent history. None the less, I'll say Oregon State wins 28-21.

WSU vs. Auburn in Auburn, Alabama. Well, what a way to start the season, huh? Road trip to SEC country. Even though Auburn ain't what it used to be, I say War Eagle wins 24-14.

Cal vs. Northwestern in Berkley. Home advantage for Cal, but Northwestern pulls the upset 27-24.

UCLA vs. Nevada in L.A. Nevada is not the chump it used to be, but they're not good enough to beat the Bruins in week one. I say UCLA wins 31-17.

USC vs. Hawaii in Honolulu. Nice place to start your season, right? The islands are kind to the Trojans as they roll up The Rainbow Warriors big, 45-21.

Arizona vs. Northern Arizona in Tucson. NAU is good. They might win this one, but I'll say Wildcats prevail 31-30.

Utah vs. Utah State in Salt Lake City. Good rivalry match up to start the season. The woes start early for the Utes as the Aggies win 27-13.

Colorado vs. Colorado State in Denver. Another in-state, cross-conference rivalry kick off game. I like it. I also like CSU to win it 23-10.

Stanford and Arizona State stay on summer vacation with a BYE this week.

2013 Pac-12 Football Season Preview and Predictions

It's that time of year again. Yep, Pac-12 football is just around the corner with the first games starting in a couple weeks. Below is what I think will happen over the next few months...

OFF SEASON
The two biggest happenings in the league over the off season both revolved around Oregon. First, their highly successful coach, Chip Kelly, left the school for the head job with the NFL's Philadelphia Eagles. His offensive coordinator, Mark Helfrich is now the head coach at Oregon. Second, at LONG last the NCAA ruled on recruiting violations committed by the University of Oregon coaching staff - in particular their use of a recruiting service in Texas. To make a really long story short, Oregon cooperated fully with the NCAA, the violations were in a very gray area of the rules, they did not involve any players of consequence during the time of the violations, other schools did the same thing at the same time, and Oregon's head coach departed for the NFL. And the upshot of all that is the NCAA did not levy harsh penalties. So, the Ducks are ready to fly in 2013.

PREDICTIONS
I will not predict records, but I will predict order of finish.

North Division

1. Oregon - Ducks just re-load. But, with Stanford in this division UO may have to go undefeated in order to win just the North Division of the league. With the talent they have all over the field and a great returning QB, they are capable of doing it...and if they do, much more will be at stake than just the North Division.
2. Stanford - This squad could win the North as it did last year by simply beating Oregon. But I don't think that will happen. The Trees lose some key players, including their great running back Stephan Taylor and a couple big, key TEs. None the less, they could easily end up in a BCS bowl.
3. Washington - I know most are predicting OSU in the #3 spot in the North, and that certainly could happen. But, UW will be better this season. I think they will take a small step and get eight wins this year.
4. Oregon State - Middle-of-the pack season coming up for the Beavs. Over rated at #25 in the coaches poll going into the season. They'll probably win a couple they should lose and drop 1-2 they should win, but in the end I'm not seeing this as a breakout year for the kids from corn valley.
5. Cal - They may have the talent to finish a notch or two higher than I'm predicting, but I've got them here because of who they lose from last year and the fact that they've just underwhelmed the last couple seasons.
6. WSU - Sorry Cougs. You will be more competitive on the field, but I don't see a strong finish in the league this season.

South Division

1. UCLA - The hype finally matches the talent. UCLA repeats as South champion. 
2. USC - The Trojans lose some great talent, but it's still USC. So, they could challenge for the South title if things fall their way...which traditionally they do. However, between their 2012 run of bad luck and questionable coaching talent, I think the critical breaks coming their way will be bad instead of good.
3. ASU - Another year, another rousing set of expectations for the Sun Devils. I put them in the middle-of-the pack because that's where they always seem to finish regardless of what's said about them in the off season or even how they actually perform in the early part of their schedule.
4. Arizona - A step back for the Wildcats this season with the departure of their QB and continuing changes brought in by new coach Rich Rod.
5. Utah - More mediocrity out of the Utes in 2013. Not looking for much from them.
6. Colorado - Oh why did they join the Pac-12?

Pac-12 Title Game
This game is played between the winner of the North and the South divisions with the victor claiming the Pac-12 Championship and an automatic bid to the Rose Bowl. If the winning team is ranked #1 or #2 in the final BCS rankings, however, they would go to the National Title game instead...also to be played in the Rose Bowl stadium this time around.

Oregon vs. UCLA - I'm picking a repeat of the inaugural Pac-12 title game in 2011 and I'm predicting the same outcome...a win by Oregon. However, I'm going to also predict that the Ducks don't get to the National Title game and have to "settle" for the Rose Bowl.

Pac-12 Week 12 Predictions

Well, well, well...what a telling week in the Pac-12. After weeks of half guessing/half assuming we knew which teams were tops in the league, the truth came out finally this past Saturday. Oh how it was reveled...

Oregon lost in OT at home to a very tough Stanford team. We learned that no matter how good Oregon has been up to now, they are NOT as good as first thought and not the first or second best team in the land. Indeed...just like their experience with Ohio State in 2009, Auburn in 2010 and LSU in 2011...Oregon has difficulty with teams that field very big, very strong and fast offensive and defensive lines. Stanford has those. It was the difference in the game. That and, well, Oregon just does not have a place kicker it can trust to make normal field goals in the 35-45 yard range. If they did, they'd have won despite how everything else went. Oh well.

Meanwhile, the myth of USC's return to greatness came crashing down this weekend too as they were finally revealed for the middle of the pack (vs. just unlucky) team through their defeat to UCLA. That's right. UCLA. Sure, USC lost earlier in the season to Stanford and Oregon, but for sure they were going to and should have beat UCLA. They could not.

UCLA has put themselves into position to finally - FINALLY - move out of the "pretender" category and into contedor or champion category with a win vs. Stanford next week and an appearance in the league title game.

And finally, Stanford revealed that they may indeed be the best team in the league. Who would have thought that a few weeks ago when they were a mess and losing to UW?

Pac-12 BCS Situation

Oregon's loss to Stanford virtually eliminates any Pac-12 team from getting into the National Title game. There's a slim, slim chance that if  the now #5 Oregon finishes with just the one loss they may re-enter the running for the #2 spot in that game if others ahead of them lose. But that's really unlikely. Oregon could reach the Rose Bowl if they get some help from UCLA next weekend and the Bruins beat Stanford in LA. That would put the Ducks back into the Pac-12 title game (assuming UO can beat Oregon State next weekend too). Win that and their back in the Rose Bowl. And finally, if Oregon wins against the Beavers but does not make it to the Pac-12 title game because Stanford beats UCLA...the Ducks would still be highly ranked and with only one loss. It could be that one of the other BCS Bowls (Sugar, Fiesta, Orange) pick Oregon to play in their game. Not bad.

UCLA has already won the Pac-12 South. They are in the league title game Nov. 30. Win that and they are in the Rose Bowl. That's their shot at the BCS games.

Stanford can get into that Pac-12 title game if they beat UCLA next Saturday. Do that and then win the title game and they are in the Rose Bowl. That's their shot at the BCS games.

Pac-12 Week 12 Predictions
Games this week are spread across Friday and Saturday. The games Friday will serve as an appetizer for the big, league-defining games on Saturday.

Below, I've listed the Saturday games in order that they will appear on TV in Pacific time. You can see that if you have the day free, you can watch the conference standings finalize right before your very eyes.

Washington vs. WSU in Pullman (Friday). UW is playing well and they are clearly better than WSU. Like the Civil War in Oregon, the Apple Cup usually features weirdness. I think the only weird thing that will happen this year is the WSU will actually hang around in the first half, but in the end UW wins. UW 27-WSU 17.

Arizona vs. ASU in Tempe (Friday). Also-rans jockey for bowl position. Home team wins. ASU 41-UA 38.
Utah vs. Colorado in Boulder (Friday). Like a couple broken down old horses that need to taken back behind a barn and put out of their misery, the Utes and Buffs will wind down their 2012 season in this final game. Utah will win it. UU 27-CU 10.

Oregon vs. Oregon State in Corvallis (Saturday at 12 p.m.). First up on Saturday is the Civil War. Grab your lunch and a cold one and settle in for the first of three critical games. If the Ducks win, they still have a chance at the league title game and/or a BCS game at-large. If the Beavers win, the Ducks are out of the BCS mix completely. Hello Alamo Bowl. The Beavers are playing well and the game is in their stadium. They also have great wide receivers a la USC. But, the Ducks are coming off their one loss and should be angry and looking for redemption. And hey, they are still Oregon. I'm going to say that Oregon rebounds and pulls out a win 34-28.

Stanford vs. UCLA in L.A. (Saturday at 3:30 p.m.) OK, you just watched the Ducks win the Civil War (that's what I predicted afer all, right?), and now you're ready to see if Stanford can kill the Ducks chances for the league title and grab the glory for themselves with a win. Time to break out the mid-afternoon snacks.With the South already sewn up, will UCLA "show up" or roll over? Either way, I think Stanford is the better team and will be motivated to nail down their appearance in the Pac-12 title game. They win. Stanford 28-UCLA 21.   If things go the way I've predicted here, you'll then have a Stanford vs. UCLA re-match in Palo Alto the following weekend to determine the Pac-12 champ. The winner would go to the Rose Bowl. Oregon would then just have to wait a couple weeks to see if one of the other BCS bowl games picks them...and if they don't, again, hello Alamo Bowl.

USC vs. Notre Dame in L.A. (Saturday at 5 p.m.) And then finally, as the Stanford/UCLA game enters it's later stages, you can start to check in on this one to see if Notre Dame can stay undefeated and confirm their participation in the National Championship game or if they finally falter to a ticked off USC squad. I would have said "this is the game where ND loses." But, given how poorly USC has played recently, I now think the "Domers" will win this game. I say ND 22-USC 14.

NOTE: Cal has finished its season. They clocked in at 3-9 overall and 2-7 in league play. No bowl. See you in 2013.

Week 9 Pac-12 Predictions

Some surprises last weekend. USC lost to Arizona and UW beat Oregon State. Just goes to show you that as much as you think you know how things will go...you never know.

Here is my little BCS overview and Week 9 predictions...

Pac-12 BCS Bowl Situation
Some significant movement this week in the BSC situation...mostly not good for the Pac-12.

• #4 Oregon won once again, leaving them as one of four undefeated teams at the top of the rankings. But, once again, Oregon was not rewarded for their win while other around them in the ranks were. #1 Alabama won, #2 Florida lost, #3 Kansas State won and #5 Notre Dame won. So, Ducks should be #3 now, right? Wrong, the BSC now has Notre Dame skipping over Oregon to the #3 spot. Meanwhile Kansas State slides up to #2. Sigh. 
• Meanwhile, USC lost and they now have two league losses. That eliminates them from the National Title hunt and puts their chances for a league title and Rose Bowl berth in serious jeopardy. It also devalues any Oregon win over them a bit...which won't help Oregon's chances of moving up.
• Oregon State lost for the first time. This will virtually knock them out of any talk of a National Title appearance, but they are still alive for a league title and Rose Bowl with tough games coming up.

Oregon, Oregon State, USC, Arizona, UCLA and ASU all still have a shot at the league title and the Rose Bowl.

Other than that, opportunities for any other Pac-12 team for the league title are slim or none.

Oregon could get to the National Title game if it wins all the rest of its games and finishes 13-0. Or, they may still do that and be "relegated" to the Rose Bowl.

It is also possible that if Oregon wins all its games except the Civil War against Oregon State...it could possibly still appear in a BSC Bowl as an at-large selection with a 12-1 record. Oregon State would probably not in a similar scenario because they'd have two losses if they lose the Civil War.

We'll see what next week brings. Meanwhile, here's what I think will happen this week...

Oregon vs. USC in L.A. The big one. But it got a little less big last weekend with USC choking against Arizona. None the less, Oregon's hopes for a National Title run faces a significant test here. And, both teams have a lot to play for in terms of a shot at the league title and, at worst, the Rose Bowl berth that it would earn them. I think this will be a close game - no blowout. I think both squads present significant challenges against the other. I would not be shocked if USC won this game, but sitting here thinking about all the previous games for both teams this season, I think Oregon is a bit better overall and has more depth. So, I'm going to say Oregon 34-USC 27.

Oregon State vs. ASU in Corvallis. Toss up. ASU has the talent to win, OSU may be feeling deflated after their loss to UW. I just have a feeling ASU is going to come into this one and play well...and win. I say ASU 31-OSU 24.

Stanford vs. Colorado in Boulder. It just doesn't get any easier for Colorado following successive games against USC and Oregon. Now comes Stanford. Stanford 44-CU 17.

UW vs. Cal in Berkley. UW is feeling good. Cal is not. UW does not play well on the road. Cal is at home. Both teams are wildly inconsistent. Hmm. OK, I'll say UW reverts back to its road woes and Cal wins 24-17.

WSU vs. Utah in Salt Lake City. Neither team is impressive or all that fun to watch. I'll say UU 21- WSU 20.

UCLA vs. Arizona in L.A. "Fools Gold Bowl II." Both annual pretenders to the league crown. One will win and extend their fantasy one more week while the other will lose and fulfill their yearly dive to the lower reaches of the standings. I say Arizona finally takes their step forward and wins. UA 35-UCLA 22.

Pac-12 Week 8 Predictions

Learned last weekend: UW's offense is a turnover giving machine, USC looks less and less a menace every week and Oregon State is shaping up to be a real threat for the North and League title.

This week...

Oregon vs. ASU in Tempe. A tough road test for the Ducks in a Thursday night matchup. But, I think ASU is a bit over-rated. As with other UO games this season, I see a close one into the third...then boom! Look out. Ducks 41-ASU 24.

Oregon State vs. Utah in Corvallis. You'd think OSU would roll on with their momentum and beat the Utes handily at home. But I say they actually choke a bit in this one...but win. OSU 21- UU 20.

USC vs. Colorado in L.A. Not close. USC 48-CU10.

Stanford vs. Cal in Berkley. Strange to see this rivalry game in the middle of the season instead of at the end as normal. None the less, Stanford is better and smarting after that oh-so-close OT loss to ND last week. I think they rebound and win 23-17.

Washington vs. Arizona in Tucson. Washington gets a much needed win and does so on the road. UW 31-UA24.


Not Playing: UCLA and WSU

Pac-12 Week 7 Predictions

Well, we learned a few things last weekend in Pac-12 play. Among them:

1) Oregon is for sure the class of the league right now. Latest evidence: an absolute curb stomp of UW for the ninth year in a row. There seems to be a bunch of teams that could finish in second place, but nobody is matching the offensive AND defensive firepower of the Ducks.

2) Oregon State, while still a threat, may not be all they are cracked up to be. Latest evidence: struggling at home to be beat WSU.

3) UCLA is proving once again they are the college football equivalent of "fools gold." Latest evidence: losing to Cal.

4) Stanford is a Jeckle and Hyde squad. Latest evidence: after losing to UW in a low scoring affair two weeks ago, they follow up with a high scoring OT win vs. Arizona.

Looking forward to this coming week's games...

Washington vs. USC in Seattle. What to think? UW rebounds at home against a now suspect USC squad? Or, USC is USC and the come in a beat the Dawgs soundly. I'll go with the latter...USC 35-UW 17.

Oregon State vs. BYU in Provo. I'll go with the Beavers until proven otherwise. I will say this though, BYU is probably better than the WSU and UCLA teams OSU has beaten so far. It would not shock me if they lost this one, but I'll go OSU 24-BYU21.

WSU vs. Cal in Pullman. Cougs are done. Cal is coming off a win and no doubt look at this one as a way to get further back on track. I say they do...Cal 28-WSU 19.

Stanford vs. Notre Dame at ND. Could be a very good game. ND is over-rated, and Stanford is - as mentioned - different each week. I'll say they show up and upset ND. Stanford 28-ND 17.

ASU vs. Colorado in Boulder. ASU big. Sun Devils 44-CU 10.

UCLA vs. Utah in LA. A battle of pretenders. UCLA is at home and does have some weapons, so I'll pick them...UCLA 37 - Utah 21.




NOT PLAYING: Oregon, Arizona

Pac-12 Week 2 Predictions

Last week I was mostly right in my predictions for Pac-12 football games. Cal lost to Nevada at home...so I got that one wrong. Also, Oregon State's game with the mighty Nichols State down in Louisiana was postponed because of Hurricane Isaac...the team couldn't get to Corvallis for the game.

For the most part, Week 2 offers up more "pre-season" games for Pac-12 squads...with the exceptions of UCLA vs. Nebraska, UA vs. OK State and ASU vs. Illinois.

Here is what I think will happen...

Oregon vs. Fresno State in Eugene. Ducks dominate again...win 41-20 with the Fresno 20 coming in the second half or late in the game when the UO is playing its second and third string.

Washington vs. LSU in Baton Rouge. UW could only score 14 points on offense against San Diego State in their opener last week. They'll have to do MUCH better vs. LSU to have a chance, but that won't happen and LSU will win by the score of 42-10.

Washington State vs. Eastern Washington. An easy win for WSU, right? No, I don't think so. I do think they'll win however by the score of 21-16.

Arizona vs. Oklahoma State in Tucson. Last year the Cowboys beat up on Arizona in Stillwater. I think they will win again even those this game is at home for the Wildcats. OK State 31-14 over Arizona.

Illinois vs. ASU in Tempe. Not sure on this one. I'll go with Illinois in a close one...21-20.

USC vs. Syracuse in New Jersey. Not even close...USC 44-10 over the Orangemen.

UCLA vs. Nebraska in LA. UCLA beat Rice and Nebraska defeated Southern Miss in a pair of tune-up games last week. Home field gives the Bruins some hope, but again with UCLA...until I actually see it on the field of play vs. a good team, I won't believe the annual hype around the squad from Westwood. Nebraska 36-17.

Cal vs. Southern Utah at Berkley. Hmmm. I was pretty sure Cal would beat Nevada at home last week. I was wrong. None the less, I think they'll be ready to go and beat Southern Utah. I say they get on track to the tune of a 28-10 win.

Stanford vs. Duke in Palo Alto. Stanford had a trickier time than I thought with San Jose State last week, but - like Cal - I think they'll be able to defeat a weaker opponent this week and win 24-6.

Oregon State vs. Wisconsin in Corvallis. OSU is not as bad as people think, and the Badgers are not as good as people think with Russell Wilson now in the NFL. But, "the other UW" wins comfortably by the score of 27-13.

Colorado vs. Sacramento State in Boulder. CU is not a good team. Sac State is worse...they lost big to New Mexico State last week. Buffs get the win, 21-9.

Utah vs. Utah State in Logan, Utah. A few years ago this would be a laugher with everyone assuming the Utes would win. But, State has come a long ways...just not far enough to win vs. an improving Utah team. Utes 29-13 victors.

Pac-12 Football Season Preview & Predictions

Well, well, well. It's that time of year again. Yes indeedee-deed. The college football season is upon us.

Before all the action starts tomorrow, below are my thoughts on the Pac-12 and how things will shake out.

PAC-12 NORTH
Setting aside USC, this is where the power lies in the league. Stanford, Oregon, Cal, an improving UW and perhaps a resurgent WSU make this a more difficult division to win than the South.

Here's how I think things will look at the end of the regular season:

1. Oregon - A very good D, skill positions loaded, soild O line, exciting new QB options, key games against UW and Stanford at home all combine to get the Ducks over the hump to win the North. I'm thinking a loss or two along the way somewhere (probably to USC on the road), but a very good season for the Quackers that sees them win the North.
2. Stanford - Andrew Luck is gone, but the cupboard is not bare in Palo Alto. None the less, I do think they will see a bit of a drop and perhaps lose two league games. But, this team will be good and can beat anyone in the Pac-12.
3. Cal - OK, I'll cop to it...I don't know much about this year's Cal team. But, I do know that they have consistently played at the "top of middle" of the league for many years running now. The last couple seasons saw them win early only to fade big down the stretch...yet still get to a bowl. I'll say they do the same this season.
4. Washington- Yes, the Dawgs are improving. Yes, their D is going to get better - how could it not? Yes, Keith Price is a dangerous QB when healthy. But no, this is not "the year" that the UW breaks through to challenge for the division or league title. They will most likely lose games to Oregon, Stanford, USC and LSU. That would be four losses right there. Throw in a road trip to Cal and the always unpredictable Apple Cup vs. WSU in Pullman this year and...well, could be another 6-6 or even 5-6 season. We'll see.
5. WSU - The arrival of Mike Leach and his system will improve this team so that they are challenging for a six win (and therefore bowl eligible) season. But it won't catapult them to the top of the division.
6. OS - A bit of a wild card here as the Beavs are not without talent. But, I think they're due to slip down a notch this season.

PAC-12 SOUTH
You'd think this would be the "class" off the league with programs like USC, UCLA, Arizona and Colorado. But no, only USC has a chance to win the division and league from among this motley crew.

1. USC - USC is "back" after its NCAA sanctions and this will be a very good squad. In particular, they have a high quality and experienced QB in his senior season. Throw in all the talent you would expect on their Defense and O line and...well, look out. Oh, and I think these Trojans are going to be looking for redemption.
2. Utah - Yes, I am picking the Utes to improve and finish second in the South. Despite their lame start last season as part of the Pac-12, they finished strong...despite having injuries to key players. So, I think they'll represent this coming season.
3. UA - Not much to say. New coach Rich Rod will probably bring new energy and motivation for the Cats, but they lose some talent and are breaking in a new QB. So, I'm thinking middle of the pack for them.
4. UCLA - Another build up of "this is the year" followed by let down. I've said it before and I'll say it again: Until UCLA actually breaks that pattern, I won't believe it.
5. ASU - Same old story...why isn't this team dominating the league? Poor coaching, hit and miss recruiting, players believing their own hype. The list goes on and on. Not a horrible team, but I don't think they improve this season with a new coach and a new QB. Like UCLA, I'll only believe their ascendancy when it actually happens.
6. Colorado - I don't see the Buffs crawling out of the basement this season. I'd like to see it, but I don't think it'll happen.

PAC-12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
As a reminder, the league champion is determined by a game matching the winner of the North division with the winner of the South division. The location of the game is the home field of the school with the best overall conference record. The winner of the Championship Game earns the automatic Pac-12 bid into the BCS. Typically this means the winner goes to the Rose Bowl. If the winner is in the running for the BCS Title Game, it could mean the winner goes to that game instead. In any case, the stakes are high.

USC vs. Oregon in Los Angeles - I think USC will have beaten UO earlier in the season OR USC will have won more games overall...or both. In any case, USC will have a better overall record. Might be by just one game, but better. So, I say this game will be played in Los Angeles.

Who will win? My heart says Ducks baby! My mind says USC will win it. Home field, tallent, motivation after being on probation, youth at Oregon's QB position...all will combine in USC favor.

And the result from that could take many forms. It could be that USC is in the running for the BCS National Title Game, so they could go there. At worst, they would go to the Rose Bowl. Oregon...depending on their record...might be in the running for a BCS game too even if they lose to USC, but more likely they'd end up in a "second tier" bowl following a loss to the Trojans.

Pac-12 Week Ten Re-Caps

Oregon...you beat Washington 34-17 in Seattle. That's eight years straight over the Huskies. Highlights were an aggressive and sturdy D, re-established run game with LaMicahel and great special teams. Your big test is next week against Stanford. Better clean up those dropped passes and propensity for untimely penalties. Those will be killers against The Trees.

UW...you lost to Oregon at home. This game can finally put into perspective where you are at in terms of development and improvement. The good news is, you are definitely better than last year with a bowl already sewn up, and signs point to more improvement next year. The bad news is, having beat six so-so to poor teams and lost decisively to three good teams...you are what you are: a middle tier, not top 25 team at this point.

Stanford...you beat Oregon State (badly) on the road in Corvallis. This is as expected. It's also yet another win against a weak opponent for you. Quite literally, your first challenge this season is next week vs. Oregon. Better get ready for speed-a-palloza and hope your big hosses don't wear out in the third or fourth quarter like last year. Yes, Luck is awesome, but he don't play defense or special teams.

Oregon State...you lost to Stanford at home. Nobody expected you to win this one, so it's not a surprise. Your fate as a bottom feeder this year is cemented. However, you will have the chance to make it all good with a win vs. Oregon at the end of the season that would deprive the Ducks of something significant. I know that sounds tough, but you always seem to rise to the occasion for that game. Can you this year?

WSU...you lost to Cal on the road in Berkley. Another week, another loss. It doesn't get any easier next week against ASU.

Cal...you beat WSU at home. Your season is starting to turn around a bit. Getting close to bowl eligibility with games still remaining against OSU, Stanford and ASU. You might have a shot at two of those.

UCLA...what? The dismal spiral into league irrelevance took a turn for the better for you this week with a one point win against a good ASU team. Can you actually claw your way into winning the southern division?

ASU...what? You lost to UCLA. Really? Wow.

Utah...you beat Arizona at home for your second league win. You're on a slight upswing with two wins in a row and sitting at five wins overall. With games against UCLA, OSU and Colorado remaining you may win as many as eight this season...something nobody would have thought about three weeks ago.

Arizona...you lost to Utah. Other than the beat down of UCLA a couple weeks ago, your season is not going well. Play to improve for next season and get up for your game against rival ASU at the end of this season.

USC...you killed Colorado. No surprises here. Not much to say.

Colorado...you lost to USC. Same comment as above.

It's THAT Time Of Year

It's THAT time of year again. No, not fall transitioning to winter. Not dark mornings and increasingly dark late afternoons. Not Halloween and costume parties.

No, it's that hallowed time of year in which pride, ambition and anticipation mix with hate, jealousy and a little bit of fear.

Just what warped season am I talking about?

Of course it's that green, yellow, purple and gold week that comes around every 12 months for the big University of Oregon vs. University of Washington football game. That's right, it's interstate football rivalry week in the northwest - and I ain't talking about Oregon State or WSU.

It's a week more about the fans and alumni of UW and UO than the players and coaches. On a purely football level, those actually involved on the filed get less worked up about the rivalry. Sure, a rivalry, but nothing compared to how the fans feel about it.

No...indeed, this week is about fans and their expectations, their projections and their desires. You can read about some of my memories of this rivalry in my post from last year HERE.

All too often it is a time when one school's fans are sick and tired of hearing about the dominance of the other school over theirs on the football field - and each school has had the advantage in stretches over the last 20 years. It's a week of "this year it's going to be different," or if you're on the currently prevailing side of things it's the year of "we're going to wipe you out again just like last year." Both sentiments usually peppered with a little bit of profanity.

Lets face it. Neither school's fans can stomach losing to the other.

UW fans usually take the perspective that theirs is the more historically dominate squad given their nice run of success in the 1980s and early 1990s, the half national championship for the 1991 season and an overall historical advantage head-to-head against Oregon. From this perspective, Husky fans are still able - despite fielding horrible teams over the past decade - to take a position of superiority over Oregon fans. (Left: a picture from days gone by when Washington held the clear upper hand in the rivalry.) 

Oregon fans typically take the perspective of the here an now - or at least the here and since 1994. Since that year, Oregon has fielded teams that have posted a 12-4 winning record against UW - starting with that famous pick six in Eugene in 1994 to seal a victory and all the way up to a string of seven consecutive eviscerations of the Huskies leading up to this year's game. Any Duck fan under the age of about 30 has only seen majority Oregon wins against Washington. This recent dominance, combined with some really, really bad UW teams gives Oregon fans the ability to take a position of superiority. (Right: a picture from the more recent era in which Oregon has dominated.)

And so it goes. And so it will be this week and into Saturday for the game. After all, it is THAT time of year again.

I'll be going to that game by the way. I'll make some mental notes and perhaps take a few pictures and report back next week.

But regardless, fans of both schools this week will indulge in this crazy ritual, this predictable but also unusual time of year. As they make their plans, lay in supplies for tailgating, work up some new insults for their rivals and generally prepare for the game, fans from both schools will be pondering...will this be the year that UW gets back on track against Oregon with a big win or will Oregon once again step on the collective Husky throat in a multiple touchdown win?

We shall see.

(NOTE: Pictures in this post were not taken by me. They are not mine.)

Pac-10 Football 2010 Straight Ahead - Season Picks

I'm getting excited for the upcoming college football season! Most schools start their schedules this weekend.

Of course at this time of the year hope springs eternal and the talk is all about what's going to happen...predicting.

In thinking about the Pac-10 and which teams might do what this season, I realized that over the past 6-7 seasons, each Pac-10 football team has performed in remarkably similar fashion over that period of time. For example and in no particular order:

• USC - dominates wire-to-wire
• OSU - starts slow but finishes strong
• Cal - starts strong but fades in the second half of the season
• Oregon - erratic, can beat anyone but can lose to anyone too
• UW - not very good beginning to end of the season
• WSU - lose virtually every game
• ASU - always picked to be a contender, never delivers
• UCLA - see ASU comment
• UA - See ASU comment (except for last season)
• Stanford - scrappy team making headway

And guess what? I bet this is exactly what happens again this year...with two exceptions. Those are: 1) I doubt USC will dominate everyone and even if they do it does not matter as they are not eligible to win the conference due to NCAA penalties, 2) I think UW will be better and could win as many as eight games.

Past that, I think we're going to see these programs perform similar to their recent track record:

• Oregon may go 11-1 and win the league going away, or they could go 7-5 (or worse).
• OSU could be a contender if they start even a game or two faster than most seasons.
• Inversely, Cal could contend if they don't fade as early as in recent seasons.
• ASU, UCLA and UA...well, I just won't believe they're Pac-10 title contenders until I actually see it happen. More likely they will be the "middle of the pack."

All that said, here is my prediction for the upcoming Pac-10 season:

1. Oregon - stars align enough that they come out on top, Darron Thomas performs well at QB, BSC bowl
2. USC - good team does well, but cannot play post season
3. OSU - similar story to last season...solid team, start a bit slow, finish very strong, bowl
4. Stanford - the scrappy team keeps scrapping and getting better, very good QB helps, bowl
5. UW - Locker finally is consistent and the team surprises, wins enough to get to a bowl
6. UA - comedown from last year and back to underachieving, might make a bowl 
7. Cal - late season fade comes earlier this season, no bowl
8. UCLA - don't believe the hype
9. ASU - sorry, not this year either
10. WSU - sad but true, may lose 9 or more games

There. Those are my picks. I did them in the moment here just before the season starts, and it's eerie how similar they are to my thoughts following spring practices earlier this year. At least I'm consistent.

In the end, I think trends and tendencies from the past will continue for the most part this season.

For those of you who say sure Marc, you  picked Oregon to win it because that's your school, I say you are correct in part...but the other part is that I honestly challenge you at this stage of the year to tell me there is a better team Pac-10 team front-to-back, O and D than the Ducks. Another team might end up being better, sure, but as of now I don't see one better as we kick off the season. Hey, I know Oregon will eventually slide...all programs do and football is cyclical...but I don't think it'll be in 2010.

Here's to an entertaining season.