College Football National Championship Game Prediction

#2 Oregon vs. #4 Ohio State
January 12 at 5 p.m. Pacific
AT&T Stadium
Arlington, TX
TV: ESPN

What's At Stake: 
Very simply and most importantly, the winner of the game is the 2014 college football champion. For Oregon, this would be their first national title in football - a huge deal! For Ohio State it would be their 8th, the most recent other one being in 2002. Also big, but 2002 was not that long ago.

Also to consider - particularly if Oregon wins - is that this game will signal a break from the real or perceive "SEC dominance" in college football. Why? A couple reasons:

• First, look how poorly the SEC did in bowl games this season. SEC teams went 7-5 in bowls, and teams from the touted SEC West conference went 0-5 when up against quality non-conference foes. While 7-5 is a winning bowl record for the conference, it's also not great and all the "big time" teams lost. Over-rated. 

• Next, this will be the second year in a row that that the SEC will not have won the title. Yes, last year Auburn was in the game, but they did not win it. And why would the break be more pronounced if Oregon wins? Well, the Big 10 has a long tradition of OSU, Michigan, Penn State and Wisconsin (and to a lesser degree Iowa) being perennial big time, big stage teams that can win it all. The Pac-12? No. Outside of USC, it's been 23 years since any other league team won the national title (Washington) and even then it was a co-title with Miami. So, showing that a non-USC team from the west can win the title will really will show how things have migrated away from the SEC.

OREGON DUCKS
How they got here: The Ducks defeated defending national title holder Florida State in the Rose Bowl on New Years Day by the dominating score of 50-20, securing their place in the title game. Prior to that, they reached the "final four" of college football after reeling off a 12-1 record and a Pac-12 title with the only loss coming early in the season to a ranked Arizona squad and with a lot of injuries that had decimated the Ducks' offensive line.

Since the Rose Bowl: Starting WR Devon Allen injured his knee on the first play of the Rose Bowl and will not play against Ohio State. Also, Oregon announced the uniforms they will wear for the big game and, much to the disappointment of many Oregon fans, there is no green or yellow in them...they're all white with grey/silver accents.

Strengths: A fast, talented, deep and dangerous offense that runs at a rapid tempo to rack up yards and exhaust the opposing defense. And, this offense is operated by Heisman Trophy winning QB Marcus Mariota - equally deadly with his arm and legs. Also, the UO defense has really come on over the past few games to play more physical football and ramped up their already impressive ability to cause and get turnovers.

Weaknesses: It's hard to point out weaknesses in a team that has made it this far, but if I had to say it would be the linebackers. They played well against FSU (Rose Bowl) and Arizona (Pac-12 title game), but there is the potential for them to get pushed around by a big physical offensive line Hell bent on blowing holes open up the middle. Also, the Ducks just don't have a reliable kicker. It's a crap shoot any time UO lines up for a FG or extra point.

Opportunities: Use superior speed and size at RB and WR to hit the Buckeyes on the edges, over the middle and then long. On Defense, get pressure on the young OSU QB with a rush off the edge and force him to make mistakes. You think that's not possible? Ask Jamis Winston how things went in the Rose Bowl.

Players to Watch: #8 QB Mariota, #24 RB Tyner, #9 DE Armstead and any Oregon LB.

What Oregon Fans Say: This ain't the same team OSU played in the Rose Bowl a few years back. We've got more talent, more size, more speed and a much better QB. OSU will not be able to match us for a full 60 minutes. Get ready Buckeyes, it's coming.

Oregon Fans' Secret Fear: A repeat of the 2010 Rose Bowl against OSU in which a) the Buckeyes did indeed "out-physical" Oregon, b) the Ducks made big mistakes (fumbled a sure-fire, take-the-lead TD away for example), c) the Buckeyes QB had the game of his career...all adding up to a 9 point loss for the Ducks. All that, or the game comes down to a field goal.

OHIO STATE BUCKEYES
How they got here: The Buckeyes upset #1 Alabama in the Sugar Bowl by the score of 42-35 on New Years Day to secure their spot in the title game. They made it into the football playoff with a 12-1 record that was notable for the fact that they did a lot of it with their backup QB following their starter going down in pre-season with an injury...and now their third string QB at the helm following his predecessor also going down with an injury. Lets put it this way, the title game will be the Buckeye QB's third career college start.

Since the Rose Bowl: Nothing to report as far as I can tell. No big injuries.

Strengths: Big offensive and defensive lines, a 1,600 yard RB, great depth at WR and (obviously QB) and an opportunistic defense.

Weaknesses: Again, it's difficult to find a true weakness in a final-two team, but I'll go with they are perhaps not as fast and athletic as Oregon's squad and their QB - for all his impressive play in two games - is indeed making this third start and it's against the fastest and biggest turnover-making D he'll have seen.

Opportunities for OSU: Establish a running game up the gut and off tackle given the aggressive nature of the Oregon DEs and the relatively smaller size of Duck LBs. If they can do that, look out. Conversely, if the Ohio State defensive front can get a push up the middle against Oregon's offensive line, they can disrupt Oregon's offense...think about what Auburn did to the Ducks in the 2011 Title Game.

Players to Watch: On offense, watch QB #12 Jones, RB #15 Elliot. On defense, watch the line play...are OSU players pushing the Oregon line backwards? Are they getting sacks?

What Ohio State Fans Say: We're bigger and stronger than Oregon and we will beat them just like we did in the 2010 Rose Bowl. Duck fans, get ready to be run over.

Buckeye Fans' Secret Fear: Oregon "does a Rose Bowl" on the Buckeyes, suddenly turning a close game into a blowout in the third or fourth quarter.

HOW THIS GAME WILL UNFOLD
I think this game is going to go just about like every other game Oregon has played this season. It will be close in the first half with one team ahead by a small amount (10 or less) at the break. OSU will have success on both sides of the ball and Oregon's offense will sputter a bit in the beginning. And then, in the second half, Oregon will assert itself with adjustments. Their offense will score fast and the defense will create a turnover or two. In the end, I think it'll be lower scoring than the Rose or Sugar Bowls, but I do think the Ducks will win pulling away.

SCORE
I say it'll be UO 37-OSU 24.

Oregon Football: Best Season Ever...Even Before the Title Game?

Wow! What a Rose Bowl...at least if you're an Oregon fan like me.

I did predict the Ducks would win and I predicted it'd be close for the first half and into the third quarter. And I did predict that the Seminoles would move the ball pretty well between the 20s.

But that's about where my powers of prediction stopped. I could not have seen Oregon's defense stopping FSU on a goal line stand, holding them to filed goal attempts a few times and forcing so may turnovers. And yes, they FORCED those turnovers rather than benefiting from Florida State players just making a mistake.

Throw in a great game played by Oregon QB Marcus Mariota, RBs Tyner and Freeman, WR Carrington and TE Baylis...and well, it turned into an epic butt whupping.

59-20 people. 59-20.

And with that, Oregon is the 2015 Rose Bowl champion. This is no small matter. Yes, they will now move onto the National Championship game against Ohio State. But, before getting into that, I don't think the Rose Bowl win should be overlooked. That by itself is a huge deal...and in particular it should be to Oregon fans. After all, we haven't been there too many times - six in total. And now they are 3-3 in the game all time. The Oregon Ducks, Rose Bowl Champion. I love it! And, it's the second Rose Bowl they've won in four seasons. In between they won the Fiesta Bowl and an Alamo Bowl, so the Ducks are 4-0 in bowls over the past four seasons.

I'll chime in with a prediction on the big game against the Buckeyes before the game. But before all that, lets do a re-cap of Oregon's season and contemplate that even if they lose the title game it could be their best season ever.

OK, lets start with the obvious. Oregon ran up a 12-1 record in the regular season. They've only ever had one undefeated regular season (2010), and only a few one-loss campaigns. So, yes, this year's record is great and up there with their best ever.

Next, who did Oregon beat in piling up those wins? Highly ranked Michigan State, ranked UCLA and Utah (both on the road), a top 10 ranked Arizona (Pac-12 title game), a ranked and difficult to beat Stanford squad who had UO's number over the past two seasons, hated rival Washington (for the 11th year in a row) and in-state rival Oregon State (for the seventh year in a row).

All great! In fact, I'd say that combination of satisfying victories in 2014 puts the season very high on the all-time great years for Oregon football...call it Top 3 at worst.

Addressing the one loss they had, it was against Arizona back in October and they avenged that quite nicely in the Pac-12 title game by wiping the Wildcats out. Again, quite satisfying.

OK, what else?

Oh, Oregon's QB won the Heisman Trophy as the best player in college football this season. No University of Oregon player had ever won it before.

In summary, I'd say that the combination of their overall record, who they beat, by how many points, the post-season awards picked up by various players and the Rose Bowl win makes 2014 the Ducks best football season ever right now...even before the National Title Game.

What will happen next? Come on back to this blog in a few days and see what I think. I've been pretty dang accurate predicting Oregon and Pac-12 games this season, so I may just know what I'm talking about.

Pac-12 Bowl Predictions

The college football post season is upon us. In about 48 hours, the first bowl will be played. On Saturday, the Pac-12 gets into the action with the first of its eight teams playing a bowl game.

Below is the full roster of bowls that league teams will be playing in and what I think will happen...

Las Vegas Bowl - Dec. 20

#22 Utah vs. Colorado State

Comment: Utah put together their first good season since joining the Pac-12. CSU seems to annually be decent but not great. But, I think this actually might be a very entertaining game. Utah has great D and dynamic special teams. Colorado State can move the ball. 

Prediction: CSU 27-UU 24

Holiday Bowl - Dec. 27

#24 USC vs. Nebraska

Comment: I like this one too. Nebraska is showing their coach out with one last game. USC trying to set up hopes for next season. I think this will make for a competitive game with some good talent on display.

Prediction: USC 28-Nebraska 17

Sun Bowl - Dec. 27

#15 Arizona State vs. Duke

Comment: Meh, not much to root for or care about unless you support one of the two schools. I won't be watching this one. Also, for the two schools it's a no-win situation I think. You win, nobody notices or cares. You lose - particularly if you're ASU - and your season really ends on a down note. 

Prediction: ASU 48-Duke 30

Foster Farms Bowl - Dec. 30

Stanford vs. Maryland

Comment: Double meh. Same reasons as the Sun Bowl. Plus, it's the "Foster Farms Bowl." Not watching. 

Prediction: Stanford 20-Maryland 14

Fiesta Bowl - Dec. 31

#10 Arizona vs. #20 Boise State

Comment: After a couple snoozer games, the Pac-12 is back with an exciting one here...on New Years Eve to boot. While I'm no Arizona fan, I'll be rooting for them to represent the league against the likes of BSU. Meanwhile, BSU will be trying to return to relevance with an upset of a top 10 team. 

Prediction: UA 35-BSU 23

Rose Bowl - Jan. 1

#2 Oregon vs. #3 Florida State

Comment: This is the biggie for the league and it will be a gooooood game. Given my personal interest in this one and since it's the marquee Pac-12 bowl appearance this season, I'll write a separate prediction post closer to the game.

Alamo Bowl - Jan. 2

#14 UCLA vs. #11 Kansas State

Comment: A battle of talented teams, but "also ran" status for both. UCLA was the toast of college football before the season started, then reality set in that they just were not as good as predicted...still good, but not THAT good. Meanwhile KSU put together a nice season, but dropped key games when it counted. I think UCLA will have the edge here, and last time the Wildcats played a Pac-12 team in a bowl (2013 Fiesta vs. Oregon) they were soundly beaten.

Prediction: UCLA 33-KSU 21

Cactus Bowl - Jan. 2

Washington vs. Oklahoma State

Comment: This could go either way. UW beat teams that they were clearly supposed to and lost to every team with a better record. Plus, their QB is iffy at best. Ok State played a plucky season, giving a scare to some good teams and beating their in-state rival Oklahoma. 

Prediction: Oklahoma State 30-UW 27

A Decade of Duck Dominance - Oregon, Washington

It's that week of the college football season. If you live in Washington or Oregon, you know what I mean. It's the week the University of Oregon and University of Washington football teams square off in a bitter, bitter boarder rivalry.

Hate and war...at least among the fan bases.

As a UO grad who grew up in Seattle and who lives there now, it's also a week that determines how much crap I'll get from UW fans for the following twelve months. This year, the plan is to gather with a mixed group of UO and UW friends to watch the game at a local pub. We'll see how that goes!

As we collectively prep for the big game, I thought I'd take a few minutes for a pre-emptive strike against my UW "friends" to remind them how lop-sided the "rivalry" has been recently.

First, historically Washington owns the advantage in the overall record of the rivalry. Give them their due. Stretching back over the past 114 years, UW has won 58 of the games to 43 for Oregon. There have been five ties over the years too. The long stretches of UW dominance over the decades is what built up the bitterness among Oregon fans for Washington football. Or, more accurately, hate for Washington football fans. Yep. The unmitigated arrogance and condescending attitude from many UW fans is why it was so sweet when the Ducks won in 1994 on the famous Kenny Wheaton interception and why regularly kicking Husky butt nowadays is such a pleasure.

Speaking of which, over the past 20 years Oregon has won 15 of the battles with Washington while UW has won four. The teams didn't play in 2001. And over the last 10 years it's been 100% all Oregon winning the games - all by substantial margins. Right now, the compelling nature of this game every year is if, when, where and how will Washington win again. My prediction is not this year. Their best shot is going to be in 2015.

Below is a re-cap of the "decade of Duck dominance" with games I personally attended marked with a *. I've added a few recollections too.

2013 in Seattle*. UO 45-UW 24. As a Seattle resident, I remember hearing many in the Seattle sports media saying that UW really had a great chance to win and probably would. So much so that I actually started believing them and was nervous about it. I need not have worried. Oregon QB Marcus Mariota had a huge day, throwing three TD passes and 366 yards through the air. He ran for 88 yards and a TD as well. This game was close through the first half, then snowballed in Oregon's favor in the second half. A friend and I sat in the Oregon section way, way, way up in the rafters of the renovated Husky Stadium. Oh, and the only crap I received from a UW fan was pretty weak...before the game in "The Zone" eating and drinking area a very inebriated UW student walked up to me and slurred out, "Your shirt fucking sucks." He stood there droopy eyed and repeated his statement, expecting me to react. I just ignored him. He eventually shambled away.

2012 in Eugene. UO 52-UW 21. This was the first boarder rivalry game played by UO QB Mariota. He did well, throwing for four TDs. The Oregon D also had a "pick six" off UW QB Keith Price.

2011 in Seattle*. UO 34-UW 17. This turned out to be the "closest" game across the ten year stretch of consecutive Duck wins. It was also a night game and the last to be played in the old Husky Stadium before the renovation project was to begin. Note, not the last Oregon vs. Washington game before the remodel...no, the last game ever in the old structure. What happened? Oregon won. That's what. UO RB LaMichael James had a big night running the ball. I sat in the old west end-zone section with Oregon fans. This was one of the worst places to watch a game at old Husky Stadium because of how far you are from the action. And, it's why UW allocated that section for visitors tickets.

I recall going out on the concourse at halftime and witnessing two incidence of abuse by UW fans. First, standing in line to get a hot dog...all of a sudden a body comes flying into my back, making me stumble forward. Turns out, a UW fan had shoved an Oregon fan and that fan fell into me. Wheeling around, I saw that the offending person was young and clearly drunk. He wanted to fight anyone not wearing purple. Some cooler-headed Husky fans somehow got him out of there before security showed up. The next thing that happened was standing in line to use the restroom. The way Husky Stadium was constructed at the time was that fans with seats at the very top of the U-shaped west end zone section could turn around and look directly down on the concourse. It happened that a drunk 50-something UW fan had done just that and was shouting abuse at Oregon fans as we waited in line to go to the restroom. Between his stream of profanity, he peppered in the line "win a Rose Bowl." (Oregon did that just a few weeks later by the way.) I fully expected this guy to throw something on us or spit at us because we were sitting "ducks" in line there. He didn't. But, all the guys in the line with me - UO and UW fans alike - agreed that you don't want to be that guy...middle age, drunk, swearing and spewing hate at people about college football.

2010 in Eugene. UO 53-16. After a 0-0 score at the end of the first quarter, UW fans had reason to be hopeful. With Jake Locker out, young backup Keith Price played QB for Washington...and looked pretty good all day long. But, reality hit in the second quarter and another wipe-out of Washington ensued. I watched this one at home in Seattle. I remember thinking I was glad not to have made the trip because it wasn't much of a game and the weather was bad down there in Eugene.

2009 in Seattle*. UO 43-UW 19. A game played on a wonderfully sunny fall afternoon. We took the party boat from Ballard to Husky Stadium wearing our Oregon gear. Dawg fans were good natured on the ride before the game, silent to us on the way back. I met KJR sports radio personality Mike Gastineau on the boat. Nice guy. Oh, and the game wasn't close...again. I recall Locker throwing an interception just as it looked like UW might get into the game with a score. All downhill for them after that.

2008 in Eugene.* UO 44-UW 10. This was a night game and an early outing for new UW QB Jake Locker. Meanwhile, it was also the debut at QB for Oregon's Jeremiah Masoli. Even the home PA announcer didn't know how to pronounce Masoli's last name (it's Mah-sOH-Lee). UW would go on to win exactly zero games the rest of the 2008 season. A friend and I went down for the game. We spent the sunny, hot afternoon perched outside on the patio at Taylor's near campus...which was a lot of fun.   Eventually, some other UW fan friends from Seattle joined us for the walk over to the stadium. Which left me as a lone Oregon fan amongst 3-4 Husky buddies. This proved not to be great for us as we somehow fell in with some young, amped up and drunk Oregon fans who a) were eager to give maximum shit to any UW fan, and b) did not appreciated that I, as an Oregon fan, was walking with Washington fans to the game. You can read about that episode and my reaction to it in my post titled "There's An A-Hole In Every Crowd (Sometimes Two)."

2007 in Seattle.* Oregon 55-UW 34. This was the game where UW fans cheered mightily on a play where they thought Washington's defense has stuffed a run up the middle only to realize to their horror that the Oregon QB, Denis Dixon, had actually pulled the ball out and was running unabated down the sideline for a score. UO running back, and Tacoma-area native, Jonathan Steward had a great day too...rushing for 251 yards.

2006 in Eugene. UO 34-14. Anyone remember who was the starting UW QB that day? Carl Bonnell. Me neither. This was the third year in a row the game was played in Eugene - an anomaly of scheduling and not some secret conspiracy to "screw" the UW. Washington fans like to forget there were stretches where the UO vs. UW game was played in connective years in Seattle - 1989-1991 for example. All Husky wins by the way.

2005 in Eugene*. UO 45-UW 21. A big day for Oregon QB Kellen Clemens and another big win for the Ducks. This was a game that a friend of mine and I did the whole trip from Seattle to Eugene and back in one day...a very LONG day. But, it was a longer day for my friend as he is a Husky fan. I also recall a funny episode at Taylor's bar before the game. We stopped in for some food and pre-game libations. My friend was wearing his UW shirt, bravely advertising he was a "enemy" fan. At one point a lovely young UO student (I am assuming she was a student) decked out in Oregon colors came up to us and fanned out a series of flyers - each with the headline "Famous Huskies" or something like that. On each was a different UW grad who, shall we say, aren't the best people - Ted Bundy, Jeremy Stevens and various other UW players who had been convicted of crimes. I think she gave my friend a choice of which one he could take. We all had a laugh.

2004 in Eugene. UO 31-UW 6. UO QB Clemens had a great day as the world was treated to the "all-neon-yellow" UO uniforms. If I recall, this game was actually NOT on TV in Seattle. A friend and I listed to it on the radio. Remember those days when games were not on TV?

And there we have it. The last 10 meetings. The two years prior, 2003 and 2002, Washington won impressively 44-14 and 42-10 respectively. Ah yes, the early 2000s. Before Facebook, iPods, Twitter, smart phones. Even the oldest players on UW were in middle school the last time the Huskies prevailed.

Pac-12 Week 4 Predictions

Well, I was wrong about Oregon last week. Oh, they won just like a predicted. But where I was wrong was by how much. I thought the big SEC boys from Tennessee would, based on talent alone, keep this one close and Oregon would pull away in the fourth quarter. Turns out it was close only in the first quarter and the Ducks ended up pulling away before halftime on their way to a 59-14 win.

Meanwhile, UW got its second win...this time on the road. Although not too impressive of a victory it still puts them in good position to go 3-0 before they start league play.

And, you have to hand it to ASU and UCLA for taking on Big 10 powers Wisconsin and Nebraska respectively and coming away with wins.

Here's what I think will happen this weekend...

Washington (2-0, 0-0) vs. Idaho State in Seattle. The Huskies will advance to 3-0 with an easy win in this one. UW 41-ISU 9.

WSU (2-1, 1-0) vs. Idaho in Pullman. Conventional wisdom would say any team that can go down to LA and beat USC should have no problem with Idaho at home. But we're talking about the Cougs here, and USC ain't the same this year. So who knows. None the less, I'll say WSU 27 - Idaho 13.

Oregon State (2-1, 1-0) vs. San Diego State in San Diego. The Beavs barely won in OT vs. Utah last week, so I say this is not a "gimmie" for them. Still, I think they'll win. OSU 24 - SDSU 17.

Stanford (2-0, 0-0) vs. Arizona State (2-0, 0-0) in Palo Alto. The only true league game this week. Stanford has played far inferior competition in their first two while ASU has taken out Wisconsin. And this one is in the desert. I call an early upset with the Sun Devils pulling it off. ASU 31-Stanford 28.

UCLA (2-0, 0-0) vs. New Mexico State in Los Angeles. UCLA once again proved it's the real deal this year by going into Nebraska and winning last week. They will have no trouble with NMSU. Bruins 44 - NMSU 13.

Utah (2-1, 0-1) vs. BYU in Provo. In-state battle of the biggest two universities. BYU is pretty good. Utah is not. I'll say BYU wins 27-20.

USC (2-1, 0-1) vs. Utah State in Los Angeles. USC is not up to its normal standards this season and Utah State is no pushover any more. But, I think the Trojan talent will win out. USC 28-USU 17.


Oregon, Cal, Arizona and Colorado all have byes this weekend and will be back in action Sept. 28.

Pac-12 Week 1 Predictions

My predictions for Week 1 of the Pac-12 season are...

Oregon vs. Nichols State in Eugene. Ummm, what do you think will happen in this one? That's right, we all agree. Oregon blows out NSU 57-10 - at least.

UW vs. Boise State in Seattle. BSU beat UW in the Vegas Bowl to end last season. I think the Dawgs get revenge and beat the Broncos 23-17 in brand new Husky Stadium to start the season off right.

Oregon State vs. Eastern Washington in Corvallis. Normally you'd think the Beavers would just roll a lower division opponent, but a) EWU is good, and b) OSU has lost these type of games at home in recent history. None the less, I'll say Oregon State wins 28-21.

WSU vs. Auburn in Auburn, Alabama. Well, what a way to start the season, huh? Road trip to SEC country. Even though Auburn ain't what it used to be, I say War Eagle wins 24-14.

Cal vs. Northwestern in Berkley. Home advantage for Cal, but Northwestern pulls the upset 27-24.

UCLA vs. Nevada in L.A. Nevada is not the chump it used to be, but they're not good enough to beat the Bruins in week one. I say UCLA wins 31-17.

USC vs. Hawaii in Honolulu. Nice place to start your season, right? The islands are kind to the Trojans as they roll up The Rainbow Warriors big, 45-21.

Arizona vs. Northern Arizona in Tucson. NAU is good. They might win this one, but I'll say Wildcats prevail 31-30.

Utah vs. Utah State in Salt Lake City. Good rivalry match up to start the season. The woes start early for the Utes as the Aggies win 27-13.

Colorado vs. Colorado State in Denver. Another in-state, cross-conference rivalry kick off game. I like it. I also like CSU to win it 23-10.

Stanford and Arizona State stay on summer vacation with a BYE this week.

Pac-12 Goes Bowling - Comments and Predictions

The Pac-12 bowl matchups are set for the 2012 season. I think the league has a very good shot at running the table in bowl season. The matchups just favor the Pac-12 teams.

Below is who is playing who in which bowls and a few thoughts on each game...

FIESTA BOWL - Oregon vs. Kansas State on Jan. 3

Oh boy. This could be a HIGH scoring game. Oregon's O is a wicked and multi-faceted TD scoring machine on hyper drive. KSU's offense is run by 2013's version of Cam Newton. In situations like this, it's usually the team with the stiffest (gets stops) and most opportunistic (gets turnovers) defense that ends up winning. I say that between the two of these squads, that's Oregon.

Oregon 47-KSU 36


ROSE BOWL - Stanford vs. Wisconsin on Jan. 1 You won't be able to tell which team is which because both have the exact same colors, field similar "big beefy" squads who play smash mouth football, and sport very similar uniform styles - including white helmets with a single red block letter on both sides.

Wisconsin is in their third straight Rose Bowl, having lost to Oregon last year and TCU the year before. I say the third time is the charm and that the big guys in red and white from the Midwest beat the big guys in red and white from the Bay Area.

Wisconsin 28-Stanford 24

SUN BOWL - USC vs. Georgia Tech on Dec. 31
USC had a disappointing season. The Sun Bowl ain't why QB Matt Barkley came back for his senior season. However, they are playing a team in Georgia Tech with a losing record. That's right. The Ramblin' Wreck sports a 6-7 record. They're in this bowl because they petitioned the NCAA on the grounds that they should not "penalized" by being left out of a bowl by reaching but losing the ACC championship game. No matter, USC will win this.

USC 38-GT 14

ALAMO BOWL - Oregon State vs. Texas on Dec. 29 This ought to be a good matchup and worth watching. OSU is much better than expected this season and any time you get a Pac-12 team vs. Texas...seems like it proves entertaining. (Note many Holiday Bowls from previous years.) I think the Beavers win this.

OSU 27 - UT 24

FIGHT HUNGER BOWL - Arizona State vs. Navy on Dec. 29Hmmm. Will anyone outside of the ASU campus and Navy personnel watch this? Probably not...or at least not too many. Will it be a good game? That's less known. ASU might dominate this thing or perhaps it'll be close. I'll say that the Sun Devils do accelerate away from the Midshipmen to win it.

ASU 47-Navy 20

HOLIDAY BOWL - UCLA vs. Baylor on Dec. 27
I'd say that outside of Oregon vs. Kansas State in the Fiesta Bowl, this is the best matchup for Pac-12 teams...likely to deliver a lot of scoring, dynamic athletes and "wow" plays. Like the Fiesta Bowl, the team with the better defense is likely to win, and that team is UCLA.

UCLA 48-Baylor 44

LAS VEGAS BOWL - Washington vs. Boise State on Dec. 22
This is a good matchup too, and I think we'll see both squads out to prove something. It's also interesting that these same two teams play again in their very first game of the 2013 season. If Kellen Moore was still QB at Boise, I'd say they will win. He's not. He's now in the NFL. I think Washington eeks out an entertaining win.

UW 28-BSU 22

Pac-12 Week 7 Predictions

Well, we learned a few things last weekend in Pac-12 play. Among them:

1) Oregon is for sure the class of the league right now. Latest evidence: an absolute curb stomp of UW for the ninth year in a row. There seems to be a bunch of teams that could finish in second place, but nobody is matching the offensive AND defensive firepower of the Ducks.

2) Oregon State, while still a threat, may not be all they are cracked up to be. Latest evidence: struggling at home to be beat WSU.

3) UCLA is proving once again they are the college football equivalent of "fools gold." Latest evidence: losing to Cal.

4) Stanford is a Jeckle and Hyde squad. Latest evidence: after losing to UW in a low scoring affair two weeks ago, they follow up with a high scoring OT win vs. Arizona.

Looking forward to this coming week's games...

Washington vs. USC in Seattle. What to think? UW rebounds at home against a now suspect USC squad? Or, USC is USC and the come in a beat the Dawgs soundly. I'll go with the latter...USC 35-UW 17.

Oregon State vs. BYU in Provo. I'll go with the Beavers until proven otherwise. I will say this though, BYU is probably better than the WSU and UCLA teams OSU has beaten so far. It would not shock me if they lost this one, but I'll go OSU 24-BYU21.

WSU vs. Cal in Pullman. Cougs are done. Cal is coming off a win and no doubt look at this one as a way to get further back on track. I say they do...Cal 28-WSU 19.

Stanford vs. Notre Dame at ND. Could be a very good game. ND is over-rated, and Stanford is - as mentioned - different each week. I'll say they show up and upset ND. Stanford 28-ND 17.

ASU vs. Colorado in Boulder. ASU big. Sun Devils 44-CU 10.

UCLA vs. Utah in LA. A battle of pretenders. UCLA is at home and does have some weapons, so I'll pick them...UCLA 37 - Utah 21.




NOT PLAYING: Oregon, Arizona

Pac-12 Week 6 Predictions

Another good week in the Pac-12 just past. What we learned, at least from a Pac-12 North perspective...

Oregon is still looking good, undefeated and #2 in the land following their 3 TD+ win over WSU. But, but one wonders how they will fare against the likes of USC, Stanford and ASU...those teams ain't WSU.

Washington finally grew a pair on defense. They manned up and really played well against the big, straight ahead run game of Stanford...and won. However, most teams UW will play from here on out have far, far more diverse offenses, more speed and better QBs. So, live it up for now Dawg fans.

WSU is done. Well, in terms of a winning season and a bowl. They just don't have it folks. They might pick up a few wins along the way, but based on last week vs. Colorado (worst team in the league) and this week vs. Oregon (best team in the league), it's clear to me that the Cougs ain't going anywhere this season.

OSU is starting to look like a real power broker in the race for the Pac-12 North and overall Pac-12 title. Civil War should be fun!

OK, looking forward...

Oregon vs. Washington in Eugene. The Ducks have beaten the Dawgs eight seasons in a row, by a lot. My feeling is that this year, the Ducks will win again...and maybe even by 2-3 TDs...but it will be a close game into the fourth quarter. I will say UO 34-UW 21.

WSU vs. Oregon State in Corvallis. Is Oregon State the real deal or just off to a hot start...and destined to fall to earth? We will not find out this week becuase WSU is not good. Beavers win at home 29-13.

Stanford vs. Arizona at Palo Alto. Should be a good game with both squads looking to bounce back after unexpected losses. I'll give it to the home team. Stanford 24-UA 17.

Cal vs. UCLA at Berkley. I think UCLA's season continues on an unexpected positive trajectory and Cal's woes continue. Bruins 34-Bears 13.

Arizona State vs. Colorado in Boulder. Sun Devils big. ASU 44-CU 10.

USC vs. Utah in Salt Lake City. Trojans big. USC 38-Utah 9.

Pac-12 Week 5 Predictions

It was a telling weened in Pac-12 play last Saturday. Let us count the ways:

1) Oregon State appears to be a lot better than they were predicted to be. Going on the road and beating an up-to-now impressive UCLA squad shows they have talent and guts not thought present before.

2) Conversely, UCLA is once again showing that they are more hype than substance. Sure, they beat weak Rice and Houston teams...and yes, they did beat Nebraska...but the first time a Pac-12 foe of any caliber shows up on their home field they lose.

3) Oregon is looking good - in particular on defense. The "D" kept the Ducks ahead in a close first half...which is how long it took the Duck "O" to get going. Once they did, they piled on 35 points, and then "D" sealed the deal late with two pick-sixes. Ducks up to #2 in the land!

4) For the second week in a row, USC did not look like a top 5 team...even though they beat Cal.

5) Oh, WSU...poor WSU. Your once promising "new start" just got derailed into "going nowheresville" as you lost to a horrible, horrible Colorado team - at home...after spoiling a late fourth quarter lead. Next up for you? Oregon.

OK, enough about last week, here's what I think will happen this week...

Oregon vs. WSU in Seattle. Cougs come out and play better in front of a Seattle crowd, maybe even keep it close in the first two quarters, but that doesn't last. Ducks win by the score of 45-17.

Oregon State vs. Arizona in Tuscon. Conventional wisdom would say Beavers keep momentum going after their UCLA win and beat up on a downtrodden Wildcats team followng their beat down at the hands of the Ducks. But no, I'm going to reverse that and say Arizona bounces back and wins 27-16.

Cal vs. Arizona State in Berkley. This should be a good match up. ASU is hot. Cal, while losing a couple close games, still has good talent. I think ASU has too much going for them and they will win 31-20.

UCLA vs. Colorado in Boulder. The Bruins are down after a loss at home to the Beavers. The Buffs are high following an unexpected win on the road at WSU. The reality of where both these squads are in 2012 sets in for as UCLA wins comfortably 33-13.

USC vs. Utah at Salt Lake City. Won't be close. USC wins 42-14.

NOTE: Washington played Stanford on Thursday and pulled off the upset 17-13, but I did not get around to predicting this week's games until that one was already over. Nice win for the Dawgs for sure, especially since their defense showed up big. A note to them, however...you're going to need to score a lot more than 17 to beat your next opponent on the road, Oregon.

Pac-12 Football Week One Predictions

OK, I'm going to have some fun again with Pac-12 football this season. Like last season, I'm going to make predictions and re-caps and I'm going to make them short - mainly for my own sanity.

Here it goes for Week One games...

Oregon vs. Arkansas State in Eugene. No, it's not Arkansas, it's Arkansas State. Enough said. Ducks roll 41-13.

Cal vs. Nevada in Berkley. Good first game match up. Nevada not the whipping boy it used to be. Still, Cal is at home...they win 24-10.

Oregon State vs. Nichols State in Corvallis. Nichols State? Normally I'd say OSU romps, but they did lose to Sacramento State last season at home. OK, Beavers win, but it'll be closer than you think - 21-14.

Stanford vs. San Jose State in Palo Alto. Stanford does not need Luck (Andrew) or luck (you know, luck) to beat SJS at home. Cardinal win 38-16

Washington vs. San Diego State in Seattle. Last we saw the UW defense, it was getting eviscerated by RG3 and Baylor. Will they stop anyone this season? Probably, starting with SDS. Dawgs win 27-10.

Washington State vs. BYU in Provo. New coach Mike Leach or not, a road game against BYU is not a good way to start things off...Cougs lose 28-21.

Arizona vs. Toledo in Tuscon. I don't know anything about Toledo, but I have to think UA will beat them at home. So that's what I'll predict...UA 23-14.

Arizona State vs. Northern Arizona in Tempe. Same as the UA game. Gotta think the Sun Devils will prevail at home against NA. I say ASU 31-12.

Colorado vs. Colorado State in Boulder. Rivalry game right out of the shoot. Buffs vs. Rams. CU isn't very good, CSU is usually decent and steals wins in this series. I say Rams 24-21.

UCLA vs. Rice in Houston. Oh, the joys of the early season for UCLA. They play their best games in the first three weeks...then spiral out of relevance fast. Same start this season with a win over Rice - 34-17.

USC vs. Hawaii in Los Angeles. Simple. USC will win and win big. 52-17...with the  Hawaii 17 coming late in the game.

Utah vs. North Colorado in Salt Lake City. A good Utah team at home vs. inferior team. Utes win 23-10.

Ducks Vs. My Rose Bowl Prediction

Well, it's been a couple weeks since the Ducks pulled off the victory in the 2012 Rose Bowl. Certainly I'm overjoyed with that outcome, but sadly...I'm hitting a bit of college football withdrawal.

To sooth that a bit, here are some thoughts about how my Ducks fared compared to my prediction before the game.

How did they do?

Essentially, I said that it was going to be a close one and that the thing that would probably be the difference between a UO win and a loss by the Ducks were turnovers.

Sure, Wisconsin would do what they do well, and so would the Ducks. But, my feeling was that if Oregon could limit their turnovers to one or fewer they would win.

Technically speaking, I was wrong then as the Ducks gave up the ball two times - once on an interception and another on a "scoop and score" fumble by Wisconsin.

Lucky for Oregon, when those things happened when there was plenty of time on the clock and the game very close...as it was all game long. While hurtful, those turnovers did not sting quite as much as they might have.

Why? Well, the Duck offense was scoring regularly. That and the Ducks created Wisconsin turnovers - and crucially timely ones too. One was a diving interception by an Oregon linebacker when it looked like the Badgers were once again marching down the field to score in the second half. The second was a fumble right by the sideline by a Wisconsin wide receiver very near the end of the game. Holding a one score lead, the Ducks pounced on the ball, killed a bunch of clock with their ensuing possession - and even though they had to punt, they killed enough time that the Badgers could not go the length of the field to score. Game over. So, the turnover game worked for both teams...but the Ducks a little bit more.

Moving on from there, another issue going into the game was the conventional wisdom that no matter how fast and athletic Oregon was, a big powerful defense with a month to prepare for the Ducks would stymie them - much as Auburn and Ohio State did in the 2011 BSC Championship and 2010 Rose Bowl respectively. But, this did not materialize this time. Nope. With only a couple exceptions when they had to punt, Oregon went up and down the field on Wisconsin...just a bit more than Wisconsin's offense did against the Duck D. The myth of a month to prepare was exploded. Indeed, the explosiveness and frequency of explosion by the Oregon offense kept them in the game and minimized the turnovers.

So the Ducks won by a touchdown, 45-38. Did I predict it? Not really. I felt good about Oregon's chances, but honestly I was too nervous and wary of past bowl performances to go out on a limb. I figured if turnovers went their way they'd win.

Am I happy about the outcome? YOU BET!

More college football come August.

For Your Consideration

Well, I'd just like to take a moment and say...

Pac-12 Week Ten Re-Caps

Oregon...you beat Washington 34-17 in Seattle. That's eight years straight over the Huskies. Highlights were an aggressive and sturdy D, re-established run game with LaMicahel and great special teams. Your big test is next week against Stanford. Better clean up those dropped passes and propensity for untimely penalties. Those will be killers against The Trees.

UW...you lost to Oregon at home. This game can finally put into perspective where you are at in terms of development and improvement. The good news is, you are definitely better than last year with a bowl already sewn up, and signs point to more improvement next year. The bad news is, having beat six so-so to poor teams and lost decisively to three good teams...you are what you are: a middle tier, not top 25 team at this point.

Stanford...you beat Oregon State (badly) on the road in Corvallis. This is as expected. It's also yet another win against a weak opponent for you. Quite literally, your first challenge this season is next week vs. Oregon. Better get ready for speed-a-palloza and hope your big hosses don't wear out in the third or fourth quarter like last year. Yes, Luck is awesome, but he don't play defense or special teams.

Oregon State...you lost to Stanford at home. Nobody expected you to win this one, so it's not a surprise. Your fate as a bottom feeder this year is cemented. However, you will have the chance to make it all good with a win vs. Oregon at the end of the season that would deprive the Ducks of something significant. I know that sounds tough, but you always seem to rise to the occasion for that game. Can you this year?

WSU...you lost to Cal on the road in Berkley. Another week, another loss. It doesn't get any easier next week against ASU.

Cal...you beat WSU at home. Your season is starting to turn around a bit. Getting close to bowl eligibility with games still remaining against OSU, Stanford and ASU. You might have a shot at two of those.

UCLA...what? The dismal spiral into league irrelevance took a turn for the better for you this week with a one point win against a good ASU team. Can you actually claw your way into winning the southern division?

ASU...what? You lost to UCLA. Really? Wow.

Utah...you beat Arizona at home for your second league win. You're on a slight upswing with two wins in a row and sitting at five wins overall. With games against UCLA, OSU and Colorado remaining you may win as many as eight this season...something nobody would have thought about three weeks ago.

Arizona...you lost to Utah. Other than the beat down of UCLA a couple weeks ago, your season is not going well. Play to improve for next season and get up for your game against rival ASU at the end of this season.

USC...you killed Colorado. No surprises here. Not much to say.

Colorado...you lost to USC. Same comment as above.

Comparing UW and UO Smack Talk

Smack talk is hotting up between Oregon and Washington fans this week...and it's only Tuesday!

I'm seeing a couple primary lines of smack that I think bear a little reality check from both sides.

Husky smack against Oregon

A common line of argument:
"Win a Rose Bowl and then come back and pop off about how good you are."

Implication:
Despite Oregon's success over the past 10-15 years, the Ducks have not won a Rose Bowl and therefore really don't have much to brag about. And further, in that time frame, even the Huskies have won one Rose Bowl (following the 2000 season).

Reality check:

• Since the 1994 season, Oregon has won the Pac-10 title outright four times (1994, 2001, 2009, 2010) and split the crown once (2000). That's four more outright league wins that the Dawgs. Twice the Ducks did go to the Rose Bowl and it is true that in 1994 and 2010 they lost those games.
• HOWEVER, following the Duck's 2001 season crown, the Rose Bowl was the designated BCS National Championship Game. In those days, that meant only the #1 and #2 team in the BCS played in the Rose Bowl. Therefore, if the Pac-10 league winner was not #1 or #2 in the BCS rankings, they would be diverted to another BCS game (Fiesta Bowl). Controversially, the 11-1 Ducks were #4 or #5 in the BCS standings, so they played in the Fiesta Bowl - a game they won by beating a highly ranked Colorado team to finish the season as the consensus #2 team in the nation.
• Also, last year after winning the Pac-10 title, the Ducks were #2 in the BCS standings. So, they got the invite to play in the national title game - which as of a few years ago is now a separate game than the other big bowls. Of course they wanted to play for the title, so they went there instead of the Rose Bowl.

Conclusion:
While the Husky line of argument is technically true, it is completely ignorant as any real fan of the Pac-10 and college football know the Ducks had no say in the fact that they could not play in the Rose Bowl following the 2001 season AND last season they played in the national title game instead of the Rose Bowl.
Smack talk rating:
Really weak stuff - willfully ignorant of what's happened in 2001 and the last 10 years. A real reach.

Duck smack against Washington

A common line of argument:

"The Huskies are a joke and irrelevant to anything important in the Pac-12. We've clobbered you seven times in a row, and unless you forgot...your team went 0-12 in 2008."

Implication:
The UW football program has been so bad over the past 9-10 years that any thought of equity with Oregon is laughable. Start winning some games and then come back and we'll talk.

Reality check:

• It is true that the Huskies have not had a good run between 2002 and 2010, and indeed they have not won a league title in that time frame. It is also true that the Ducks have beaten the Huskies seven season in a row by large margins.
• HOWEVER, UW had a decent year last season, and they won their bowl game against a good Nebraska team. This year, they're bowl eligible already. All told, the Huskies are clearly improving steadily.

Conclusion:
Again, the insults are technically true, but ignorant - in this instance ignorant of recent events. Because the Ducks have beaten  UW so regularly recently, Oregon fans like to dismiss the resurgence going on at UW...and they do so at the risk of being shocked come Saturday evening.

Smack talk rating:
Feeble - UW fans know how bad their team has been. Reminding them of that at a time when their team is actually improving rings particularly hollow.

Big upshot...

• Until UW beats Oregon and/or wins a league title, Washington fans should stop tyring to undermine Oregon's recent success.
• Until Oregon wins a BCS Bowl game again, Duck fans need to temper claims to greatness or reminding the Huskies of their recent woes.

It's THAT Time Of Year

It's THAT time of year again. No, not fall transitioning to winter. Not dark mornings and increasingly dark late afternoons. Not Halloween and costume parties.

No, it's that hallowed time of year in which pride, ambition and anticipation mix with hate, jealousy and a little bit of fear.

Just what warped season am I talking about?

Of course it's that green, yellow, purple and gold week that comes around every 12 months for the big University of Oregon vs. University of Washington football game. That's right, it's interstate football rivalry week in the northwest - and I ain't talking about Oregon State or WSU.

It's a week more about the fans and alumni of UW and UO than the players and coaches. On a purely football level, those actually involved on the filed get less worked up about the rivalry. Sure, a rivalry, but nothing compared to how the fans feel about it.

No...indeed, this week is about fans and their expectations, their projections and their desires. You can read about some of my memories of this rivalry in my post from last year HERE.

All too often it is a time when one school's fans are sick and tired of hearing about the dominance of the other school over theirs on the football field - and each school has had the advantage in stretches over the last 20 years. It's a week of "this year it's going to be different," or if you're on the currently prevailing side of things it's the year of "we're going to wipe you out again just like last year." Both sentiments usually peppered with a little bit of profanity.

Lets face it. Neither school's fans can stomach losing to the other.

UW fans usually take the perspective that theirs is the more historically dominate squad given their nice run of success in the 1980s and early 1990s, the half national championship for the 1991 season and an overall historical advantage head-to-head against Oregon. From this perspective, Husky fans are still able - despite fielding horrible teams over the past decade - to take a position of superiority over Oregon fans. (Left: a picture from days gone by when Washington held the clear upper hand in the rivalry.) 

Oregon fans typically take the perspective of the here an now - or at least the here and since 1994. Since that year, Oregon has fielded teams that have posted a 12-4 winning record against UW - starting with that famous pick six in Eugene in 1994 to seal a victory and all the way up to a string of seven consecutive eviscerations of the Huskies leading up to this year's game. Any Duck fan under the age of about 30 has only seen majority Oregon wins against Washington. This recent dominance, combined with some really, really bad UW teams gives Oregon fans the ability to take a position of superiority. (Right: a picture from the more recent era in which Oregon has dominated.)

And so it goes. And so it will be this week and into Saturday for the game. After all, it is THAT time of year again.

I'll be going to that game by the way. I'll make some mental notes and perhaps take a few pictures and report back next week.

But regardless, fans of both schools this week will indulge in this crazy ritual, this predictable but also unusual time of year. As they make their plans, lay in supplies for tailgating, work up some new insults for their rivals and generally prepare for the game, fans from both schools will be pondering...will this be the year that UW gets back on track against Oregon with a big win or will Oregon once again step on the collective Husky throat in a multiple touchdown win?

We shall see.

(NOTE: Pictures in this post were not taken by me. They are not mine.)

Last Football Post For Some Time - 2010 Season Ending Thoughts

I've had fun writing about the 2010 college football season, with a special focus on the Pac-10 and my Ducks. But, like the Ducks' narrow defeat in the big game last Monday and indeed the Pac-10 itself (it becomes the Pac-12 next season), all good things must come to an end. So, this will be my last football related post for quite a while.

First, for anyone - like, maybe all two or three of you! - who tuned in and read my stuff, thanks. I hope I offered some insights and a little humor.

Next, here's my quick re-cap of the season...

• Ducks - I am very proud of their season and how the dominated virtually every team they played during the regular season, the fact that they won the Pac-10 for the second year in a row and that they represented so well in the big BCS championship game - narrowly losing on the last play of the game to a GREAT Auburn team. And, they finished #3 in the rankings. I admit that just after the game I was crushed that they lost. Crushed. Knowing how hard it is to get to that game, and being so close to pulling off "the big one"...only not to do so and have crazy stuff contribute to the outcome (was that guy's wrist down? And, sure looked like Harris picked Newton but they didn't give it to him) was pretty hard to take. Anyway, it stings worse when its your school. But, with a week to ponder it now, hey, the Ducks did great all year long...including that game. Very proud. What a wonderful season. They'll be loaded again in 2011.
• UW - nice recovery to their season and bowl win. Husky fans have reason to be optimistic. They will need to replace at QB, so that could be a mitigating factor to winning more than 6 games next season, but hey...going in the right direction.
• Stanford - look out. These guys will challenge for the league title or more next season.
• Rest of the Pac-10 - nobody else really had a season to "write home about," but each team offered some bright spots - even WSU. No doubt next pre-season we'll see predictions of ASU or UCLA finally rising to the top of the league as we do every year.

So that's it folks. With the small exception of some spring practices, college football really doesn't focus in until August - a good eight months from now. Not sure if I'll repeat my week-by-week posts next season, do something different or just give all you people a break and not do any of it.