Pac-12 Week 3 Predictions

Wow. That was a pretty dang good weekend for the Pac-12 last Saturday. WSU upset USC in LA in the first league game, Oregon blew out Virginia on the road, Oregon State notched a win, Cal got a scare from Portland State but put them away in the end and Stanford finally got into action with a win.

With most teams still playing out-of-conference games this week, what will happen? Here's what I think...

#2 Oregon (2-0 overall, 0-0 in league play) vs. Tennessee in Eugene. Pac-12 vs. SEC...in the Northwest! What? SEC teams are notorious for a) not playing challenging out-of-conference games, and b) not traveling outside the south to play out-of-conference games. So, big kudos to the Vols for coming to Eugene in return for the Ducks playing in Tennessee a couple years ago. How will this one go? I predict the Ducks will win - moving to 3-0 entering league play. But, I don't think it will be the blowout that the last two weeks have been. I think Tennessee has some great athletes and will challenge Oregon some. I say UO 31-Tenn 20.

#20 Washington (1-0, 0-0) vs. Illinois in Chicago. Is UW for real? Was the win vs. Boise State last week a preview of a newly blossomed powerhouse? Or, was that more chalked up to the emotion of opening the new stadium and the fact that Boise is, in reality, not that good...they've said goodbye to 13 starters from last season. Well, the road will be a good test for the Huskies and provide some indication. Illinois is not a world-beater, but they are a Big 10 team and this is on the road in Chicago. I think the Huskies get it done though. UW 27-Illinois 17.

Oregon State (1-1, 0-0) vs. Utah (2-0, 0-0) in Salt Lake City. Neither team has played high quality opponents and both teams are suspect. I think Utah may win this one, but I'll give the nod to OS as I think they have superior tallent on both sides of the ball. Oregon State 19-Utah 10.

WSU (1-1, 1-0) vs. Southern Utah in Pullman. How about them Cougs!? Not only did they upset USC in L.A., but they held the Trojans to seven points. Wow. Who knew the WSU defense was up to that? And who knew USC's normally potent offense would be so anemic? Either way, the Cougs got a big one and will continue their roll with a big win over Southern Utah. WSU 28-SU 9.

#5 Stanford (1-0, 0-0) vs. Army at West Point. The Cardinal beat up on a weak San Jose State team to open its season and gets only a slightly more difficult challenge this week. Stanford wins this one too. Stan 31-Army 6.

Cal (1-1, 0-0) vs. #3 Ohio State at Berkley. This is a real nice match-up. Don't underestimate Cal. They've been getting their "sea legs" under them with a new coach over the last couple weeks and have good talent on their roster. They've also already played a Big 10 school, Northwestern. Could they upset the highly ranked Buckeyes? Yes, they could. But they won't. Cal makes it interesting for a while but OSU wins. OSU 30-Cal17.

#18 UCLA (1-0, 0-0) vs. #22 Nebraska in Lincoln. Another good one! UCLA is on the road for this game. I call upset on this one. The Cornhuskers will win a close one. Neb 24-UCLA 21.

Arizona (2-0, 0-0) vs. University of Texas San Antonio in Tucson. This one won't be interesting or close. UA 49-UTSA 13.

Arizona State (1-0, 0-0) vs. Wisconsin in Tempe. A third Pac-12 vs. Big 10 match up for this weekend. I like it. While certainly Wisconsin could win it, I think ASU pulls it out at home...and perhaps pull away in the fourth quarter. ASU 41 - Wisc 27.

Colorado (2-0, 0-0) vs. Fresno State in Boulder. Check out Colorado at 2-0. Nice. Now they get the Bulldogs at home. As much as I'd like to see the Buffs move on to 3-0, I think reality returns this week and they drop this game to Fresno State. FSU 27-CU 17.

USC (1-1, 0-1) vs. Boston College in L.A. Hmmm. Not sure what to make of USC at this point. I'll go with the fact that this is in L.A. and, despite their start this season, USC is USC. I'll take the Trojans to win. USC 20-BC 14.

Pac-12 Week 1 Predictions

My predictions for Week 1 of the Pac-12 season are...

Oregon vs. Nichols State in Eugene. Ummm, what do you think will happen in this one? That's right, we all agree. Oregon blows out NSU 57-10 - at least.

UW vs. Boise State in Seattle. BSU beat UW in the Vegas Bowl to end last season. I think the Dawgs get revenge and beat the Broncos 23-17 in brand new Husky Stadium to start the season off right.

Oregon State vs. Eastern Washington in Corvallis. Normally you'd think the Beavers would just roll a lower division opponent, but a) EWU is good, and b) OSU has lost these type of games at home in recent history. None the less, I'll say Oregon State wins 28-21.

WSU vs. Auburn in Auburn, Alabama. Well, what a way to start the season, huh? Road trip to SEC country. Even though Auburn ain't what it used to be, I say War Eagle wins 24-14.

Cal vs. Northwestern in Berkley. Home advantage for Cal, but Northwestern pulls the upset 27-24.

UCLA vs. Nevada in L.A. Nevada is not the chump it used to be, but they're not good enough to beat the Bruins in week one. I say UCLA wins 31-17.

USC vs. Hawaii in Honolulu. Nice place to start your season, right? The islands are kind to the Trojans as they roll up The Rainbow Warriors big, 45-21.

Arizona vs. Northern Arizona in Tucson. NAU is good. They might win this one, but I'll say Wildcats prevail 31-30.

Utah vs. Utah State in Salt Lake City. Good rivalry match up to start the season. The woes start early for the Utes as the Aggies win 27-13.

Colorado vs. Colorado State in Denver. Another in-state, cross-conference rivalry kick off game. I like it. I also like CSU to win it 23-10.

Stanford and Arizona State stay on summer vacation with a BYE this week.

2013 Pac-12 Football Season Preview and Predictions

It's that time of year again. Yep, Pac-12 football is just around the corner with the first games starting in a couple weeks. Below is what I think will happen over the next few months...

OFF SEASON
The two biggest happenings in the league over the off season both revolved around Oregon. First, their highly successful coach, Chip Kelly, left the school for the head job with the NFL's Philadelphia Eagles. His offensive coordinator, Mark Helfrich is now the head coach at Oregon. Second, at LONG last the NCAA ruled on recruiting violations committed by the University of Oregon coaching staff - in particular their use of a recruiting service in Texas. To make a really long story short, Oregon cooperated fully with the NCAA, the violations were in a very gray area of the rules, they did not involve any players of consequence during the time of the violations, other schools did the same thing at the same time, and Oregon's head coach departed for the NFL. And the upshot of all that is the NCAA did not levy harsh penalties. So, the Ducks are ready to fly in 2013.

PREDICTIONS
I will not predict records, but I will predict order of finish.

North Division

1. Oregon - Ducks just re-load. But, with Stanford in this division UO may have to go undefeated in order to win just the North Division of the league. With the talent they have all over the field and a great returning QB, they are capable of doing it...and if they do, much more will be at stake than just the North Division.
2. Stanford - This squad could win the North as it did last year by simply beating Oregon. But I don't think that will happen. The Trees lose some key players, including their great running back Stephan Taylor and a couple big, key TEs. None the less, they could easily end up in a BCS bowl.
3. Washington - I know most are predicting OSU in the #3 spot in the North, and that certainly could happen. But, UW will be better this season. I think they will take a small step and get eight wins this year.
4. Oregon State - Middle-of-the pack season coming up for the Beavs. Over rated at #25 in the coaches poll going into the season. They'll probably win a couple they should lose and drop 1-2 they should win, but in the end I'm not seeing this as a breakout year for the kids from corn valley.
5. Cal - They may have the talent to finish a notch or two higher than I'm predicting, but I've got them here because of who they lose from last year and the fact that they've just underwhelmed the last couple seasons.
6. WSU - Sorry Cougs. You will be more competitive on the field, but I don't see a strong finish in the league this season.

South Division

1. UCLA - The hype finally matches the talent. UCLA repeats as South champion. 
2. USC - The Trojans lose some great talent, but it's still USC. So, they could challenge for the South title if things fall their way...which traditionally they do. However, between their 2012 run of bad luck and questionable coaching talent, I think the critical breaks coming their way will be bad instead of good.
3. ASU - Another year, another rousing set of expectations for the Sun Devils. I put them in the middle-of-the pack because that's where they always seem to finish regardless of what's said about them in the off season or even how they actually perform in the early part of their schedule.
4. Arizona - A step back for the Wildcats this season with the departure of their QB and continuing changes brought in by new coach Rich Rod.
5. Utah - More mediocrity out of the Utes in 2013. Not looking for much from them.
6. Colorado - Oh why did they join the Pac-12?

Pac-12 Title Game
This game is played between the winner of the North and the South divisions with the victor claiming the Pac-12 Championship and an automatic bid to the Rose Bowl. If the winning team is ranked #1 or #2 in the final BCS rankings, however, they would go to the National Title game instead...also to be played in the Rose Bowl stadium this time around.

Oregon vs. UCLA - I'm picking a repeat of the inaugural Pac-12 title game in 2011 and I'm predicting the same outcome...a win by Oregon. However, I'm going to also predict that the Ducks don't get to the National Title game and have to "settle" for the Rose Bowl.

Pac-12 Week 5 Predictions

It was a telling weened in Pac-12 play last Saturday. Let us count the ways:

1) Oregon State appears to be a lot better than they were predicted to be. Going on the road and beating an up-to-now impressive UCLA squad shows they have talent and guts not thought present before.

2) Conversely, UCLA is once again showing that they are more hype than substance. Sure, they beat weak Rice and Houston teams...and yes, they did beat Nebraska...but the first time a Pac-12 foe of any caliber shows up on their home field they lose.

3) Oregon is looking good - in particular on defense. The "D" kept the Ducks ahead in a close first half...which is how long it took the Duck "O" to get going. Once they did, they piled on 35 points, and then "D" sealed the deal late with two pick-sixes. Ducks up to #2 in the land!

4) For the second week in a row, USC did not look like a top 5 team...even though they beat Cal.

5) Oh, WSU...poor WSU. Your once promising "new start" just got derailed into "going nowheresville" as you lost to a horrible, horrible Colorado team - at home...after spoiling a late fourth quarter lead. Next up for you? Oregon.

OK, enough about last week, here's what I think will happen this week...

Oregon vs. WSU in Seattle. Cougs come out and play better in front of a Seattle crowd, maybe even keep it close in the first two quarters, but that doesn't last. Ducks win by the score of 45-17.

Oregon State vs. Arizona in Tuscon. Conventional wisdom would say Beavers keep momentum going after their UCLA win and beat up on a downtrodden Wildcats team followng their beat down at the hands of the Ducks. But no, I'm going to reverse that and say Arizona bounces back and wins 27-16.

Cal vs. Arizona State in Berkley. This should be a good match up. ASU is hot. Cal, while losing a couple close games, still has good talent. I think ASU has too much going for them and they will win 31-20.

UCLA vs. Colorado in Boulder. The Bruins are down after a loss at home to the Beavers. The Buffs are high following an unexpected win on the road at WSU. The reality of where both these squads are in 2012 sets in for as UCLA wins comfortably 33-13.

USC vs. Utah at Salt Lake City. Won't be close. USC wins 42-14.

NOTE: Washington played Stanford on Thursday and pulled off the upset 17-13, but I did not get around to predicting this week's games until that one was already over. Nice win for the Dawgs for sure, especially since their defense showed up big. A note to them, however...you're going to need to score a lot more than 17 to beat your next opponent on the road, Oregon.

Pac-12 Football Week One Predictions

OK, I'm going to have some fun again with Pac-12 football this season. Like last season, I'm going to make predictions and re-caps and I'm going to make them short - mainly for my own sanity.

Here it goes for Week One games...

Oregon vs. Arkansas State in Eugene. No, it's not Arkansas, it's Arkansas State. Enough said. Ducks roll 41-13.

Cal vs. Nevada in Berkley. Good first game match up. Nevada not the whipping boy it used to be. Still, Cal is at home...they win 24-10.

Oregon State vs. Nichols State in Corvallis. Nichols State? Normally I'd say OSU romps, but they did lose to Sacramento State last season at home. OK, Beavers win, but it'll be closer than you think - 21-14.

Stanford vs. San Jose State in Palo Alto. Stanford does not need Luck (Andrew) or luck (you know, luck) to beat SJS at home. Cardinal win 38-16

Washington vs. San Diego State in Seattle. Last we saw the UW defense, it was getting eviscerated by RG3 and Baylor. Will they stop anyone this season? Probably, starting with SDS. Dawgs win 27-10.

Washington State vs. BYU in Provo. New coach Mike Leach or not, a road game against BYU is not a good way to start things off...Cougs lose 28-21.

Arizona vs. Toledo in Tuscon. I don't know anything about Toledo, but I have to think UA will beat them at home. So that's what I'll predict...UA 23-14.

Arizona State vs. Northern Arizona in Tempe. Same as the UA game. Gotta think the Sun Devils will prevail at home against NA. I say ASU 31-12.

Colorado vs. Colorado State in Boulder. Rivalry game right out of the shoot. Buffs vs. Rams. CU isn't very good, CSU is usually decent and steals wins in this series. I say Rams 24-21.

UCLA vs. Rice in Houston. Oh, the joys of the early season for UCLA. They play their best games in the first three weeks...then spiral out of relevance fast. Same start this season with a win over Rice - 34-17.

USC vs. Hawaii in Los Angeles. Simple. USC will win and win big. 52-17...with the  Hawaii 17 coming late in the game.

Utah vs. North Colorado in Salt Lake City. A good Utah team at home vs. inferior team. Utes win 23-10.

It's THAT Time Of Year

It's THAT time of year again. No, not fall transitioning to winter. Not dark mornings and increasingly dark late afternoons. Not Halloween and costume parties.

No, it's that hallowed time of year in which pride, ambition and anticipation mix with hate, jealousy and a little bit of fear.

Just what warped season am I talking about?

Of course it's that green, yellow, purple and gold week that comes around every 12 months for the big University of Oregon vs. University of Washington football game. That's right, it's interstate football rivalry week in the northwest - and I ain't talking about Oregon State or WSU.

It's a week more about the fans and alumni of UW and UO than the players and coaches. On a purely football level, those actually involved on the filed get less worked up about the rivalry. Sure, a rivalry, but nothing compared to how the fans feel about it.

No...indeed, this week is about fans and their expectations, their projections and their desires. You can read about some of my memories of this rivalry in my post from last year HERE.

All too often it is a time when one school's fans are sick and tired of hearing about the dominance of the other school over theirs on the football field - and each school has had the advantage in stretches over the last 20 years. It's a week of "this year it's going to be different," or if you're on the currently prevailing side of things it's the year of "we're going to wipe you out again just like last year." Both sentiments usually peppered with a little bit of profanity.

Lets face it. Neither school's fans can stomach losing to the other.

UW fans usually take the perspective that theirs is the more historically dominate squad given their nice run of success in the 1980s and early 1990s, the half national championship for the 1991 season and an overall historical advantage head-to-head against Oregon. From this perspective, Husky fans are still able - despite fielding horrible teams over the past decade - to take a position of superiority over Oregon fans. (Left: a picture from days gone by when Washington held the clear upper hand in the rivalry.) 

Oregon fans typically take the perspective of the here an now - or at least the here and since 1994. Since that year, Oregon has fielded teams that have posted a 12-4 winning record against UW - starting with that famous pick six in Eugene in 1994 to seal a victory and all the way up to a string of seven consecutive eviscerations of the Huskies leading up to this year's game. Any Duck fan under the age of about 30 has only seen majority Oregon wins against Washington. This recent dominance, combined with some really, really bad UW teams gives Oregon fans the ability to take a position of superiority. (Right: a picture from the more recent era in which Oregon has dominated.)

And so it goes. And so it will be this week and into Saturday for the game. After all, it is THAT time of year again.

I'll be going to that game by the way. I'll make some mental notes and perhaps take a few pictures and report back next week.

But regardless, fans of both schools this week will indulge in this crazy ritual, this predictable but also unusual time of year. As they make their plans, lay in supplies for tailgating, work up some new insults for their rivals and generally prepare for the game, fans from both schools will be pondering...will this be the year that UW gets back on track against Oregon with a big win or will Oregon once again step on the collective Husky throat in a multiple touchdown win?

We shall see.

(NOTE: Pictures in this post were not taken by me. They are not mine.)

It's Pac-12 Prediction Time

OK everybody...or everybody interested in Pac-12 football...it's that time of year again. Kickoff to most schools' opening games is only a week away. That can only mean one thing: predictions.

Last season I followed a hunch that my Oregon Ducks would be very, very good...so I covered them and the then Pac-10 season closely with posts, analysis and entries about each week's games. I'd predict late in the week and re-cap on Sundays. Thing is...that takes time. This year I'm pretty sure the Ducks will be good again (but probably not 12-0 good), but I'm going to scale it back a bit and try to be more brief.

To start this new approach off, below is my prediction for a) how the Pac-12 will finish this season, and b) the first weekend of games.

PAC-12 SEASON PREDICTIONS

North Division

• Oregon (10-2 overall, 8-1 in league play) - the world is their oyster if the O-line gels quick and QB Thomas stays healthy. Wins the division.
• Stanford - (9-3, 7-2) - great QB, solid talent, but key losses from last year + new coach.
• Washington (7-5, 5-4) - Dawgs get over the hump and win more than they lose this season.
• Cal (6-6, 5-4) - Bears not that good. Not their year.
• Oregon State (5-6, 4-5) - lose too much talent all around to compete for top end of this division.
• Washington State (4-8, 3-6) - steady improvement continues, but not enough.

South Division

• ASU - (10-2, 7-2) just might be their year.
• USC (9-3, 6-3) - not eligible for a bowl or Pac-12 championship game.
• Utah - (8-4, 6-3) - could cause a stir their Pac-12 debut season.
• UA - (5-7, 4-5) - lost five straight to close out last season. May upset 1-2 teams, but overall not that great.
• UCLA (4-8, 3-6) - another season, another sub-par performance.
• Colorado (3-9, 2-10) - sorry CU.

Pac-12 Championship Game

Oregon vs. ASU (outside chance it's Utah) in Eugene, OR - Ducks win. Better team, home field advantage. Win takes them to the Rose Bowl.

WEEK 1 GAMES

Oregon vs. LSU in Dallas. LSU wins 24-17. Ducks good, LSU good. But, UO O-line has some new guys, it's a road game and no Cliff Harris for this one. Advantage to the SEC squad by a little.

UW vs. Eastern Washington in Seatte. UW wins 31-10. ESU is good for their division, but if UW is really "on the rise," they'll beat 'em pretty bad.

WSU vs. Idaho State in Pullman. Even the Cougs should beat ISU like a drum. 41-10.

Oregon State vs. Sacramento State in Corvallis. Beavs win 23-9.

Stanford vs. San Jose State at Palo Alto. Cardinal win big 44-13.

Cal vs. Fresno State in Fresno. Upset. FSU wins 24-21.

Utah vs. Montana State in Salt Lake City. Utes all the way 35-21.

USC vs. Minnesota in L.A. USC still too good and at home. They win 28-10.

UCLA vs. Houston in Houston. UCLA gets beat bad 49-10.

Colorado vs. Hawaii in Honolulu. Rainbow Warriors win 24-17.

ASU vs. UC Davis in Tempe. Umm...yeah. Sun Devils win 31-7.

Arizona vs. Northern Arizona in Tuscon. N.A. is not a pushover, but 'Cats win this one 27-13.

Duck Record Defended

The other day the local sports radio station was discussing college sports in the northwest generally, and the subject of the rivalry between my alma mater the University of Oregon Ducks and the hated Oregon State Beavers came up. 

One of the on-air personalities said, "no doubt about it, Oregon State has the better football program...nobody other than USC has won more games over the past five seasons."

Well, that's not true. Must be wishful thinking from a sour Husky-lover.

Yes, it is true that USC has dominated in Pac-10 college football. No question there.

But, on the question of UO vs. OSU, the realities are that over the past five football seasons:

• UO has won 41 football games, OSU has won 40...so, who has won more games? The Ducks.


• UO has finished ranked #9 (2008), #23 (2007) and #12 (2004) while OSU has finished #18 (2008), #25 (2007) and #21 (2006)...so, who has finished with higher rankings? The Ducks.


• UO football finished 2nd in the Pac-10 in 2008, fourth in 2007, fifth in 2006, second in 2005 and fifth in 2004. OSU finished third in 2008, third in 2007, third in 2006, seventh in 2005 and fourth in 2004. So, a mixed bag, and clearly not enough to back up the "OSU is a better program" brag. OSU is more consistent as the third best Pac-10 program, but Oregon has more top 2 finishes over the past five seasons.


• It is true that OSU has won 3 of the past 5 "Civil War" games, so give them their due. But it also needs to be noted that those wins were very, very close games (2 were OT wins) while the two Oregon wins were absolute blow outs...including the UO win in the recently concluded season. So again, not a clear indication that "OSU is the better program" by any stretch.

So, there you have it...proof that the statement "Oregon State is clearly a better football program than Oregon over the past five seasons" is false. You can see that in fact, the Oregon Ducks have won more games and finished higher in the season-ending rankings over the past five seasons than the Oregon State. Meanwhile, other typical measures to compare the two are a wash at best.

Sorry for the tangent everybody, but Duck honor needed to be defended...this needed to be set straight.