Pac-12 Football: 2014 Final Standings + League Title Prediction

What a season! Great games, upsets, road teams winning, Hail Mary victories, a front-runner Heisman candidate, a player named Scooby and great performances from a lot of players.

In total I went 64-19 in predicting winners of Pac-12 games this season. That's a 70% rate of success. Pretty good.

Below is how I thought the standings would be at the end of the season and then how they actually turned out. And below that is how I think the Pac-12 Title Game will go.

NORTH DIVISION

Here is how I predicted the teams in this division would finish...

1. Oregon
2. Stanford 
3. Oregon State 
4. UW 
5. WSU
6. Cal 

Here is how they actually finished...

1. Oregon (11-1, 8-1)
2. Stanford (7-5, 5-4)
3. UW (8-5, 4-5) 
4. Cal (5-7, 3-6)
5. WSU (3-9, 2-7)
6. Oregon State (5-7, 2-7)

I got the first two and fifth place correct, but otherwise it was a jumble with UW and Cal performing a bit better than I thought and Oregon State a lot worse. Overall, despite some good games, this division ended up being Oregon and then everyone else. The Ducks swept every school...and, other than WSU, by a lot of points.

Game of the season: Oregon beats Stanford, stopping a two season skid against the Cardinal and latching onto the North Division lead for good. 

Next: All this puts Oregon into the Pac-12 title game Friday.

SOUTH DIVISION
Here is how I predicted the teams in this division would finish...

1. UCLA
2. USC
3. ASU
4. UA
5. Utah
6. CU

Here is how they actually finished...

1. UA (10-2, 7-2) 
2. UCLA (9-3, 6-3) 
3. ASU (9-3, 6-3)
4. USC (8-4, 6-3)
5. Utah (8-4, 5-4)
6. CU (2-10, 0-9) 

I got spots 3, 5 and 6 correct. But, Arizona played much better than I thought they would with a new QB and replacing some key players on both sides of the ball. Meanwhile, UCLA under-performed...I bought into the annual UCLA hype this year and should not have. And USC had an OK year, but not as good as their talent would suggest.

Game of the season: Way too many to pick just one. But, I'll try...ASU beats UCLA in the last game of the regular season. This eliminates the Bruins from winning the South Division and catapults UA into that position.

Next: These results put Arizona into the Pac-12 title game Friday.

Pac-12 TITLE GAME - Dec. 5, 2014 

Oregon Ducks vs. Arizona Wildcats in Santa Clara, CA at 6 p.m. Pacific 
By virtue of its better record, Oregon is the "home" team, but this is a neutral site match up.

This is obviously a compelling game. Here are several reasons why...

Oregon: If they win, not only will they re-capture the league title for the first time in three seasons, but they will be a lock to get into the four-team national championship playoff. And that would likely be in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1. Oh, and barring a bad game, QB Mariota is probably your 2014 Heisman Trophy winner. And if all that wasn't enough for the Ducks to be motivated, Arizona is the team that gave them their one loss earlier in the season...so revenge will be a factor. If Oregon loses, for the third season in a row they will be relegated to the odd situation of being second banana in a league they dominated. Sure, they'll still probably get a decent bowl, but no playoff and no Heisman.

Arizona: These are heady days for Arizona's football program. Sure, by all rights they should have lost to UW and were only saved by a super bone headed coaching decision by Washington to not "take a knee" at the end of that game. But, they now have a chance to win their first Pac title ever. That is their motivation. That and of course trying to show their earlier victory over UO was not a fluke. If they beat the favored Ducks, they'll have an outside shot at the playoff (depending on what else happens nationally) but more likely a sweet New Years Day bowl. If they lose, they drop to a being a three-loss team and while they will go bowling and probably still be ranked, it'll be quite a bit less of a season for them.

Big Picture: How Oregon does in this game will have a direct impact on which schools are in the four team national title playoff. If the Ducks win, they're in...locking up one of the four spots. If they lose, then another school will get in.

What do I think will happen in this game?

I think Oregon will win this time against Arizona. It'll be a hard fought, tough game for a half...maybe even three quarters. Arizona will put points on the board, sure. But, this time around Oregon will pull away and win by a couple scores. Why do I think this? A few reasons:

1) Oregon has a healthy offensive line this time. Due to a wave of injuries, in October they were starting walk ons and Freshmen at most spots on the line against UA. It showed. The running game was extremely limited, Mariota was hurried and sacked a lot and the Ducks were unable to take advantage of the aggressive Arizona defense. Additionally, key defensive players left the game because of injury too. It was still a very close game, but the Ducks could not do enough to win. However, since getting many/most their starters back on the line...

2) Oregon's offense has ramped up considerably and they are hitting on all cylinders. Loads of talent and experience all over the field. This time, I expect the Ducks to make Arizona pay for their aggressive play on defense with more yards, more first downs and more points.

3) Oregon's defense has steadily improved. In the defeat to Arizona they looked lost and unprepared. Horrible to be honest. Since then they've gotten better and better each week - particularly at linebacker. Arizona feasted on the short pass over the middle or to the flat followed by long runs by the receiver. That was poor linebacker play...something that has greatly improved since. Also, the Ducks have gotten a much better pass rush since the loss. And I highly doubt there will be any stupid "unsportsmanlike conduct" penalties for celebration such as the one that created the Arizona drive that cost the Ducks the earlier game with Arizona.

My prediction is that these three factors will be clearly on display and will add up to an Oregon win:

Oregon 45-UA 28

Pac-12 Week 4 Predictions

Well, I was wrong about Oregon last week. Oh, they won just like a predicted. But where I was wrong was by how much. I thought the big SEC boys from Tennessee would, based on talent alone, keep this one close and Oregon would pull away in the fourth quarter. Turns out it was close only in the first quarter and the Ducks ended up pulling away before halftime on their way to a 59-14 win.

Meanwhile, UW got its second win...this time on the road. Although not too impressive of a victory it still puts them in good position to go 3-0 before they start league play.

And, you have to hand it to ASU and UCLA for taking on Big 10 powers Wisconsin and Nebraska respectively and coming away with wins.

Here's what I think will happen this weekend...

Washington (2-0, 0-0) vs. Idaho State in Seattle. The Huskies will advance to 3-0 with an easy win in this one. UW 41-ISU 9.

WSU (2-1, 1-0) vs. Idaho in Pullman. Conventional wisdom would say any team that can go down to LA and beat USC should have no problem with Idaho at home. But we're talking about the Cougs here, and USC ain't the same this year. So who knows. None the less, I'll say WSU 27 - Idaho 13.

Oregon State (2-1, 1-0) vs. San Diego State in San Diego. The Beavs barely won in OT vs. Utah last week, so I say this is not a "gimmie" for them. Still, I think they'll win. OSU 24 - SDSU 17.

Stanford (2-0, 0-0) vs. Arizona State (2-0, 0-0) in Palo Alto. The only true league game this week. Stanford has played far inferior competition in their first two while ASU has taken out Wisconsin. And this one is in the desert. I call an early upset with the Sun Devils pulling it off. ASU 31-Stanford 28.

UCLA (2-0, 0-0) vs. New Mexico State in Los Angeles. UCLA once again proved it's the real deal this year by going into Nebraska and winning last week. They will have no trouble with NMSU. Bruins 44 - NMSU 13.

Utah (2-1, 0-1) vs. BYU in Provo. In-state battle of the biggest two universities. BYU is pretty good. Utah is not. I'll say BYU wins 27-20.

USC (2-1, 0-1) vs. Utah State in Los Angeles. USC is not up to its normal standards this season and Utah State is no pushover any more. But, I think the Trojan talent will win out. USC 28-USU 17.


Oregon, Cal, Arizona and Colorado all have byes this weekend and will be back in action Sept. 28.

Pac-12 Week 3 Predictions

Wow. That was a pretty dang good weekend for the Pac-12 last Saturday. WSU upset USC in LA in the first league game, Oregon blew out Virginia on the road, Oregon State notched a win, Cal got a scare from Portland State but put them away in the end and Stanford finally got into action with a win.

With most teams still playing out-of-conference games this week, what will happen? Here's what I think...

#2 Oregon (2-0 overall, 0-0 in league play) vs. Tennessee in Eugene. Pac-12 vs. SEC...in the Northwest! What? SEC teams are notorious for a) not playing challenging out-of-conference games, and b) not traveling outside the south to play out-of-conference games. So, big kudos to the Vols for coming to Eugene in return for the Ducks playing in Tennessee a couple years ago. How will this one go? I predict the Ducks will win - moving to 3-0 entering league play. But, I don't think it will be the blowout that the last two weeks have been. I think Tennessee has some great athletes and will challenge Oregon some. I say UO 31-Tenn 20.

#20 Washington (1-0, 0-0) vs. Illinois in Chicago. Is UW for real? Was the win vs. Boise State last week a preview of a newly blossomed powerhouse? Or, was that more chalked up to the emotion of opening the new stadium and the fact that Boise is, in reality, not that good...they've said goodbye to 13 starters from last season. Well, the road will be a good test for the Huskies and provide some indication. Illinois is not a world-beater, but they are a Big 10 team and this is on the road in Chicago. I think the Huskies get it done though. UW 27-Illinois 17.

Oregon State (1-1, 0-0) vs. Utah (2-0, 0-0) in Salt Lake City. Neither team has played high quality opponents and both teams are suspect. I think Utah may win this one, but I'll give the nod to OS as I think they have superior tallent on both sides of the ball. Oregon State 19-Utah 10.

WSU (1-1, 1-0) vs. Southern Utah in Pullman. How about them Cougs!? Not only did they upset USC in L.A., but they held the Trojans to seven points. Wow. Who knew the WSU defense was up to that? And who knew USC's normally potent offense would be so anemic? Either way, the Cougs got a big one and will continue their roll with a big win over Southern Utah. WSU 28-SU 9.

#5 Stanford (1-0, 0-0) vs. Army at West Point. The Cardinal beat up on a weak San Jose State team to open its season and gets only a slightly more difficult challenge this week. Stanford wins this one too. Stan 31-Army 6.

Cal (1-1, 0-0) vs. #3 Ohio State at Berkley. This is a real nice match-up. Don't underestimate Cal. They've been getting their "sea legs" under them with a new coach over the last couple weeks and have good talent on their roster. They've also already played a Big 10 school, Northwestern. Could they upset the highly ranked Buckeyes? Yes, they could. But they won't. Cal makes it interesting for a while but OSU wins. OSU 30-Cal17.

#18 UCLA (1-0, 0-0) vs. #22 Nebraska in Lincoln. Another good one! UCLA is on the road for this game. I call upset on this one. The Cornhuskers will win a close one. Neb 24-UCLA 21.

Arizona (2-0, 0-0) vs. University of Texas San Antonio in Tucson. This one won't be interesting or close. UA 49-UTSA 13.

Arizona State (1-0, 0-0) vs. Wisconsin in Tempe. A third Pac-12 vs. Big 10 match up for this weekend. I like it. While certainly Wisconsin could win it, I think ASU pulls it out at home...and perhaps pull away in the fourth quarter. ASU 41 - Wisc 27.

Colorado (2-0, 0-0) vs. Fresno State in Boulder. Check out Colorado at 2-0. Nice. Now they get the Bulldogs at home. As much as I'd like to see the Buffs move on to 3-0, I think reality returns this week and they drop this game to Fresno State. FSU 27-CU 17.

USC (1-1, 0-1) vs. Boston College in L.A. Hmmm. Not sure what to make of USC at this point. I'll go with the fact that this is in L.A. and, despite their start this season, USC is USC. I'll take the Trojans to win. USC 20-BC 14.

Pac-12 Week 1 Predictions

My predictions for Week 1 of the Pac-12 season are...

Oregon vs. Nichols State in Eugene. Ummm, what do you think will happen in this one? That's right, we all agree. Oregon blows out NSU 57-10 - at least.

UW vs. Boise State in Seattle. BSU beat UW in the Vegas Bowl to end last season. I think the Dawgs get revenge and beat the Broncos 23-17 in brand new Husky Stadium to start the season off right.

Oregon State vs. Eastern Washington in Corvallis. Normally you'd think the Beavers would just roll a lower division opponent, but a) EWU is good, and b) OSU has lost these type of games at home in recent history. None the less, I'll say Oregon State wins 28-21.

WSU vs. Auburn in Auburn, Alabama. Well, what a way to start the season, huh? Road trip to SEC country. Even though Auburn ain't what it used to be, I say War Eagle wins 24-14.

Cal vs. Northwestern in Berkley. Home advantage for Cal, but Northwestern pulls the upset 27-24.

UCLA vs. Nevada in L.A. Nevada is not the chump it used to be, but they're not good enough to beat the Bruins in week one. I say UCLA wins 31-17.

USC vs. Hawaii in Honolulu. Nice place to start your season, right? The islands are kind to the Trojans as they roll up The Rainbow Warriors big, 45-21.

Arizona vs. Northern Arizona in Tucson. NAU is good. They might win this one, but I'll say Wildcats prevail 31-30.

Utah vs. Utah State in Salt Lake City. Good rivalry match up to start the season. The woes start early for the Utes as the Aggies win 27-13.

Colorado vs. Colorado State in Denver. Another in-state, cross-conference rivalry kick off game. I like it. I also like CSU to win it 23-10.

Stanford and Arizona State stay on summer vacation with a BYE this week.

2013 Pac-12 Football Season Preview and Predictions

It's that time of year again. Yep, Pac-12 football is just around the corner with the first games starting in a couple weeks. Below is what I think will happen over the next few months...

OFF SEASON
The two biggest happenings in the league over the off season both revolved around Oregon. First, their highly successful coach, Chip Kelly, left the school for the head job with the NFL's Philadelphia Eagles. His offensive coordinator, Mark Helfrich is now the head coach at Oregon. Second, at LONG last the NCAA ruled on recruiting violations committed by the University of Oregon coaching staff - in particular their use of a recruiting service in Texas. To make a really long story short, Oregon cooperated fully with the NCAA, the violations were in a very gray area of the rules, they did not involve any players of consequence during the time of the violations, other schools did the same thing at the same time, and Oregon's head coach departed for the NFL. And the upshot of all that is the NCAA did not levy harsh penalties. So, the Ducks are ready to fly in 2013.

PREDICTIONS
I will not predict records, but I will predict order of finish.

North Division

1. Oregon - Ducks just re-load. But, with Stanford in this division UO may have to go undefeated in order to win just the North Division of the league. With the talent they have all over the field and a great returning QB, they are capable of doing it...and if they do, much more will be at stake than just the North Division.
2. Stanford - This squad could win the North as it did last year by simply beating Oregon. But I don't think that will happen. The Trees lose some key players, including their great running back Stephan Taylor and a couple big, key TEs. None the less, they could easily end up in a BCS bowl.
3. Washington - I know most are predicting OSU in the #3 spot in the North, and that certainly could happen. But, UW will be better this season. I think they will take a small step and get eight wins this year.
4. Oregon State - Middle-of-the pack season coming up for the Beavs. Over rated at #25 in the coaches poll going into the season. They'll probably win a couple they should lose and drop 1-2 they should win, but in the end I'm not seeing this as a breakout year for the kids from corn valley.
5. Cal - They may have the talent to finish a notch or two higher than I'm predicting, but I've got them here because of who they lose from last year and the fact that they've just underwhelmed the last couple seasons.
6. WSU - Sorry Cougs. You will be more competitive on the field, but I don't see a strong finish in the league this season.

South Division

1. UCLA - The hype finally matches the talent. UCLA repeats as South champion. 
2. USC - The Trojans lose some great talent, but it's still USC. So, they could challenge for the South title if things fall their way...which traditionally they do. However, between their 2012 run of bad luck and questionable coaching talent, I think the critical breaks coming their way will be bad instead of good.
3. ASU - Another year, another rousing set of expectations for the Sun Devils. I put them in the middle-of-the pack because that's where they always seem to finish regardless of what's said about them in the off season or even how they actually perform in the early part of their schedule.
4. Arizona - A step back for the Wildcats this season with the departure of their QB and continuing changes brought in by new coach Rich Rod.
5. Utah - More mediocrity out of the Utes in 2013. Not looking for much from them.
6. Colorado - Oh why did they join the Pac-12?

Pac-12 Title Game
This game is played between the winner of the North and the South divisions with the victor claiming the Pac-12 Championship and an automatic bid to the Rose Bowl. If the winning team is ranked #1 or #2 in the final BCS rankings, however, they would go to the National Title game instead...also to be played in the Rose Bowl stadium this time around.

Oregon vs. UCLA - I'm picking a repeat of the inaugural Pac-12 title game in 2011 and I'm predicting the same outcome...a win by Oregon. However, I'm going to also predict that the Ducks don't get to the National Title game and have to "settle" for the Rose Bowl.

Pac-12 Goes Bowling - Comments and Predictions

The Pac-12 bowl matchups are set for the 2012 season. I think the league has a very good shot at running the table in bowl season. The matchups just favor the Pac-12 teams.

Below is who is playing who in which bowls and a few thoughts on each game...

FIESTA BOWL - Oregon vs. Kansas State on Jan. 3

Oh boy. This could be a HIGH scoring game. Oregon's O is a wicked and multi-faceted TD scoring machine on hyper drive. KSU's offense is run by 2013's version of Cam Newton. In situations like this, it's usually the team with the stiffest (gets stops) and most opportunistic (gets turnovers) defense that ends up winning. I say that between the two of these squads, that's Oregon.

Oregon 47-KSU 36


ROSE BOWL - Stanford vs. Wisconsin on Jan. 1 You won't be able to tell which team is which because both have the exact same colors, field similar "big beefy" squads who play smash mouth football, and sport very similar uniform styles - including white helmets with a single red block letter on both sides.

Wisconsin is in their third straight Rose Bowl, having lost to Oregon last year and TCU the year before. I say the third time is the charm and that the big guys in red and white from the Midwest beat the big guys in red and white from the Bay Area.

Wisconsin 28-Stanford 24

SUN BOWL - USC vs. Georgia Tech on Dec. 31
USC had a disappointing season. The Sun Bowl ain't why QB Matt Barkley came back for his senior season. However, they are playing a team in Georgia Tech with a losing record. That's right. The Ramblin' Wreck sports a 6-7 record. They're in this bowl because they petitioned the NCAA on the grounds that they should not "penalized" by being left out of a bowl by reaching but losing the ACC championship game. No matter, USC will win this.

USC 38-GT 14

ALAMO BOWL - Oregon State vs. Texas on Dec. 29 This ought to be a good matchup and worth watching. OSU is much better than expected this season and any time you get a Pac-12 team vs. Texas...seems like it proves entertaining. (Note many Holiday Bowls from previous years.) I think the Beavers win this.

OSU 27 - UT 24

FIGHT HUNGER BOWL - Arizona State vs. Navy on Dec. 29Hmmm. Will anyone outside of the ASU campus and Navy personnel watch this? Probably not...or at least not too many. Will it be a good game? That's less known. ASU might dominate this thing or perhaps it'll be close. I'll say that the Sun Devils do accelerate away from the Midshipmen to win it.

ASU 47-Navy 20

HOLIDAY BOWL - UCLA vs. Baylor on Dec. 27
I'd say that outside of Oregon vs. Kansas State in the Fiesta Bowl, this is the best matchup for Pac-12 teams...likely to deliver a lot of scoring, dynamic athletes and "wow" plays. Like the Fiesta Bowl, the team with the better defense is likely to win, and that team is UCLA.

UCLA 48-Baylor 44

LAS VEGAS BOWL - Washington vs. Boise State on Dec. 22
This is a good matchup too, and I think we'll see both squads out to prove something. It's also interesting that these same two teams play again in their very first game of the 2013 season. If Kellen Moore was still QB at Boise, I'd say they will win. He's not. He's now in the NFL. I think Washington eeks out an entertaining win.

UW 28-BSU 22

Pac-12 Week 12 Predictions

Well, well, well...what a telling week in the Pac-12. After weeks of half guessing/half assuming we knew which teams were tops in the league, the truth came out finally this past Saturday. Oh how it was reveled...

Oregon lost in OT at home to a very tough Stanford team. We learned that no matter how good Oregon has been up to now, they are NOT as good as first thought and not the first or second best team in the land. Indeed...just like their experience with Ohio State in 2009, Auburn in 2010 and LSU in 2011...Oregon has difficulty with teams that field very big, very strong and fast offensive and defensive lines. Stanford has those. It was the difference in the game. That and, well, Oregon just does not have a place kicker it can trust to make normal field goals in the 35-45 yard range. If they did, they'd have won despite how everything else went. Oh well.

Meanwhile, the myth of USC's return to greatness came crashing down this weekend too as they were finally revealed for the middle of the pack (vs. just unlucky) team through their defeat to UCLA. That's right. UCLA. Sure, USC lost earlier in the season to Stanford and Oregon, but for sure they were going to and should have beat UCLA. They could not.

UCLA has put themselves into position to finally - FINALLY - move out of the "pretender" category and into contedor or champion category with a win vs. Stanford next week and an appearance in the league title game.

And finally, Stanford revealed that they may indeed be the best team in the league. Who would have thought that a few weeks ago when they were a mess and losing to UW?

Pac-12 BCS Situation

Oregon's loss to Stanford virtually eliminates any Pac-12 team from getting into the National Title game. There's a slim, slim chance that if  the now #5 Oregon finishes with just the one loss they may re-enter the running for the #2 spot in that game if others ahead of them lose. But that's really unlikely. Oregon could reach the Rose Bowl if they get some help from UCLA next weekend and the Bruins beat Stanford in LA. That would put the Ducks back into the Pac-12 title game (assuming UO can beat Oregon State next weekend too). Win that and their back in the Rose Bowl. And finally, if Oregon wins against the Beavers but does not make it to the Pac-12 title game because Stanford beats UCLA...the Ducks would still be highly ranked and with only one loss. It could be that one of the other BCS Bowls (Sugar, Fiesta, Orange) pick Oregon to play in their game. Not bad.

UCLA has already won the Pac-12 South. They are in the league title game Nov. 30. Win that and they are in the Rose Bowl. That's their shot at the BCS games.

Stanford can get into that Pac-12 title game if they beat UCLA next Saturday. Do that and then win the title game and they are in the Rose Bowl. That's their shot at the BCS games.

Pac-12 Week 12 Predictions
Games this week are spread across Friday and Saturday. The games Friday will serve as an appetizer for the big, league-defining games on Saturday.

Below, I've listed the Saturday games in order that they will appear on TV in Pacific time. You can see that if you have the day free, you can watch the conference standings finalize right before your very eyes.

Washington vs. WSU in Pullman (Friday). UW is playing well and they are clearly better than WSU. Like the Civil War in Oregon, the Apple Cup usually features weirdness. I think the only weird thing that will happen this year is the WSU will actually hang around in the first half, but in the end UW wins. UW 27-WSU 17.

Arizona vs. ASU in Tempe (Friday). Also-rans jockey for bowl position. Home team wins. ASU 41-UA 38.
Utah vs. Colorado in Boulder (Friday). Like a couple broken down old horses that need to taken back behind a barn and put out of their misery, the Utes and Buffs will wind down their 2012 season in this final game. Utah will win it. UU 27-CU 10.

Oregon vs. Oregon State in Corvallis (Saturday at 12 p.m.). First up on Saturday is the Civil War. Grab your lunch and a cold one and settle in for the first of three critical games. If the Ducks win, they still have a chance at the league title game and/or a BCS game at-large. If the Beavers win, the Ducks are out of the BCS mix completely. Hello Alamo Bowl. The Beavers are playing well and the game is in their stadium. They also have great wide receivers a la USC. But, the Ducks are coming off their one loss and should be angry and looking for redemption. And hey, they are still Oregon. I'm going to say that Oregon rebounds and pulls out a win 34-28.

Stanford vs. UCLA in L.A. (Saturday at 3:30 p.m.) OK, you just watched the Ducks win the Civil War (that's what I predicted afer all, right?), and now you're ready to see if Stanford can kill the Ducks chances for the league title and grab the glory for themselves with a win. Time to break out the mid-afternoon snacks.With the South already sewn up, will UCLA "show up" or roll over? Either way, I think Stanford is the better team and will be motivated to nail down their appearance in the Pac-12 title game. They win. Stanford 28-UCLA 21.   If things go the way I've predicted here, you'll then have a Stanford vs. UCLA re-match in Palo Alto the following weekend to determine the Pac-12 champ. The winner would go to the Rose Bowl. Oregon would then just have to wait a couple weeks to see if one of the other BCS bowl games picks them...and if they don't, again, hello Alamo Bowl.

USC vs. Notre Dame in L.A. (Saturday at 5 p.m.) And then finally, as the Stanford/UCLA game enters it's later stages, you can start to check in on this one to see if Notre Dame can stay undefeated and confirm their participation in the National Championship game or if they finally falter to a ticked off USC squad. I would have said "this is the game where ND loses." But, given how poorly USC has played recently, I now think the "Domers" will win this game. I say ND 22-USC 14.

NOTE: Cal has finished its season. They clocked in at 3-9 overall and 2-7 in league play. No bowl. See you in 2013.

Pac-12 Week 7 Predictions

Well, we learned a few things last weekend in Pac-12 play. Among them:

1) Oregon is for sure the class of the league right now. Latest evidence: an absolute curb stomp of UW for the ninth year in a row. There seems to be a bunch of teams that could finish in second place, but nobody is matching the offensive AND defensive firepower of the Ducks.

2) Oregon State, while still a threat, may not be all they are cracked up to be. Latest evidence: struggling at home to be beat WSU.

3) UCLA is proving once again they are the college football equivalent of "fools gold." Latest evidence: losing to Cal.

4) Stanford is a Jeckle and Hyde squad. Latest evidence: after losing to UW in a low scoring affair two weeks ago, they follow up with a high scoring OT win vs. Arizona.

Looking forward to this coming week's games...

Washington vs. USC in Seattle. What to think? UW rebounds at home against a now suspect USC squad? Or, USC is USC and the come in a beat the Dawgs soundly. I'll go with the latter...USC 35-UW 17.

Oregon State vs. BYU in Provo. I'll go with the Beavers until proven otherwise. I will say this though, BYU is probably better than the WSU and UCLA teams OSU has beaten so far. It would not shock me if they lost this one, but I'll go OSU 24-BYU21.

WSU vs. Cal in Pullman. Cougs are done. Cal is coming off a win and no doubt look at this one as a way to get further back on track. I say they do...Cal 28-WSU 19.

Stanford vs. Notre Dame at ND. Could be a very good game. ND is over-rated, and Stanford is - as mentioned - different each week. I'll say they show up and upset ND. Stanford 28-ND 17.

ASU vs. Colorado in Boulder. ASU big. Sun Devils 44-CU 10.

UCLA vs. Utah in LA. A battle of pretenders. UCLA is at home and does have some weapons, so I'll pick them...UCLA 37 - Utah 21.




NOT PLAYING: Oregon, Arizona

Pac-12 Week 5 Predictions

It was a telling weened in Pac-12 play last Saturday. Let us count the ways:

1) Oregon State appears to be a lot better than they were predicted to be. Going on the road and beating an up-to-now impressive UCLA squad shows they have talent and guts not thought present before.

2) Conversely, UCLA is once again showing that they are more hype than substance. Sure, they beat weak Rice and Houston teams...and yes, they did beat Nebraska...but the first time a Pac-12 foe of any caliber shows up on their home field they lose.

3) Oregon is looking good - in particular on defense. The "D" kept the Ducks ahead in a close first half...which is how long it took the Duck "O" to get going. Once they did, they piled on 35 points, and then "D" sealed the deal late with two pick-sixes. Ducks up to #2 in the land!

4) For the second week in a row, USC did not look like a top 5 team...even though they beat Cal.

5) Oh, WSU...poor WSU. Your once promising "new start" just got derailed into "going nowheresville" as you lost to a horrible, horrible Colorado team - at home...after spoiling a late fourth quarter lead. Next up for you? Oregon.

OK, enough about last week, here's what I think will happen this week...

Oregon vs. WSU in Seattle. Cougs come out and play better in front of a Seattle crowd, maybe even keep it close in the first two quarters, but that doesn't last. Ducks win by the score of 45-17.

Oregon State vs. Arizona in Tuscon. Conventional wisdom would say Beavers keep momentum going after their UCLA win and beat up on a downtrodden Wildcats team followng their beat down at the hands of the Ducks. But no, I'm going to reverse that and say Arizona bounces back and wins 27-16.

Cal vs. Arizona State in Berkley. This should be a good match up. ASU is hot. Cal, while losing a couple close games, still has good talent. I think ASU has too much going for them and they will win 31-20.

UCLA vs. Colorado in Boulder. The Bruins are down after a loss at home to the Beavers. The Buffs are high following an unexpected win on the road at WSU. The reality of where both these squads are in 2012 sets in for as UCLA wins comfortably 33-13.

USC vs. Utah at Salt Lake City. Won't be close. USC wins 42-14.

NOTE: Washington played Stanford on Thursday and pulled off the upset 17-13, but I did not get around to predicting this week's games until that one was already over. Nice win for the Dawgs for sure, especially since their defense showed up big. A note to them, however...you're going to need to score a lot more than 17 to beat your next opponent on the road, Oregon.

Pac-12 Week 2 Predictions

Last week I was mostly right in my predictions for Pac-12 football games. Cal lost to Nevada at home...so I got that one wrong. Also, Oregon State's game with the mighty Nichols State down in Louisiana was postponed because of Hurricane Isaac...the team couldn't get to Corvallis for the game.

For the most part, Week 2 offers up more "pre-season" games for Pac-12 squads...with the exceptions of UCLA vs. Nebraska, UA vs. OK State and ASU vs. Illinois.

Here is what I think will happen...

Oregon vs. Fresno State in Eugene. Ducks dominate again...win 41-20 with the Fresno 20 coming in the second half or late in the game when the UO is playing its second and third string.

Washington vs. LSU in Baton Rouge. UW could only score 14 points on offense against San Diego State in their opener last week. They'll have to do MUCH better vs. LSU to have a chance, but that won't happen and LSU will win by the score of 42-10.

Washington State vs. Eastern Washington. An easy win for WSU, right? No, I don't think so. I do think they'll win however by the score of 21-16.

Arizona vs. Oklahoma State in Tucson. Last year the Cowboys beat up on Arizona in Stillwater. I think they will win again even those this game is at home for the Wildcats. OK State 31-14 over Arizona.

Illinois vs. ASU in Tempe. Not sure on this one. I'll go with Illinois in a close one...21-20.

USC vs. Syracuse in New Jersey. Not even close...USC 44-10 over the Orangemen.

UCLA vs. Nebraska in LA. UCLA beat Rice and Nebraska defeated Southern Miss in a pair of tune-up games last week. Home field gives the Bruins some hope, but again with UCLA...until I actually see it on the field of play vs. a good team, I won't believe the annual hype around the squad from Westwood. Nebraska 36-17.

Cal vs. Southern Utah at Berkley. Hmmm. I was pretty sure Cal would beat Nevada at home last week. I was wrong. None the less, I think they'll be ready to go and beat Southern Utah. I say they get on track to the tune of a 28-10 win.

Stanford vs. Duke in Palo Alto. Stanford had a trickier time than I thought with San Jose State last week, but - like Cal - I think they'll be able to defeat a weaker opponent this week and win 24-6.

Oregon State vs. Wisconsin in Corvallis. OSU is not as bad as people think, and the Badgers are not as good as people think with Russell Wilson now in the NFL. But, "the other UW" wins comfortably by the score of 27-13.

Colorado vs. Sacramento State in Boulder. CU is not a good team. Sac State is worse...they lost big to New Mexico State last week. Buffs get the win, 21-9.

Utah vs. Utah State in Logan, Utah. A few years ago this would be a laugher with everyone assuming the Utes would win. But, State has come a long ways...just not far enough to win vs. an improving Utah team. Utes 29-13 victors.

Pac-12 Football Week One Predictions

OK, I'm going to have some fun again with Pac-12 football this season. Like last season, I'm going to make predictions and re-caps and I'm going to make them short - mainly for my own sanity.

Here it goes for Week One games...

Oregon vs. Arkansas State in Eugene. No, it's not Arkansas, it's Arkansas State. Enough said. Ducks roll 41-13.

Cal vs. Nevada in Berkley. Good first game match up. Nevada not the whipping boy it used to be. Still, Cal is at home...they win 24-10.

Oregon State vs. Nichols State in Corvallis. Nichols State? Normally I'd say OSU romps, but they did lose to Sacramento State last season at home. OK, Beavers win, but it'll be closer than you think - 21-14.

Stanford vs. San Jose State in Palo Alto. Stanford does not need Luck (Andrew) or luck (you know, luck) to beat SJS at home. Cardinal win 38-16

Washington vs. San Diego State in Seattle. Last we saw the UW defense, it was getting eviscerated by RG3 and Baylor. Will they stop anyone this season? Probably, starting with SDS. Dawgs win 27-10.

Washington State vs. BYU in Provo. New coach Mike Leach or not, a road game against BYU is not a good way to start things off...Cougs lose 28-21.

Arizona vs. Toledo in Tuscon. I don't know anything about Toledo, but I have to think UA will beat them at home. So that's what I'll predict...UA 23-14.

Arizona State vs. Northern Arizona in Tempe. Same as the UA game. Gotta think the Sun Devils will prevail at home against NA. I say ASU 31-12.

Colorado vs. Colorado State in Boulder. Rivalry game right out of the shoot. Buffs vs. Rams. CU isn't very good, CSU is usually decent and steals wins in this series. I say Rams 24-21.

UCLA vs. Rice in Houston. Oh, the joys of the early season for UCLA. They play their best games in the first three weeks...then spiral out of relevance fast. Same start this season with a win over Rice - 34-17.

USC vs. Hawaii in Los Angeles. Simple. USC will win and win big. 52-17...with the  Hawaii 17 coming late in the game.

Utah vs. North Colorado in Salt Lake City. A good Utah team at home vs. inferior team. Utes win 23-10.

It's Pac-12 Prediction Time

OK everybody...or everybody interested in Pac-12 football...it's that time of year again. Kickoff to most schools' opening games is only a week away. That can only mean one thing: predictions.

Last season I followed a hunch that my Oregon Ducks would be very, very good...so I covered them and the then Pac-10 season closely with posts, analysis and entries about each week's games. I'd predict late in the week and re-cap on Sundays. Thing is...that takes time. This year I'm pretty sure the Ducks will be good again (but probably not 12-0 good), but I'm going to scale it back a bit and try to be more brief.

To start this new approach off, below is my prediction for a) how the Pac-12 will finish this season, and b) the first weekend of games.

PAC-12 SEASON PREDICTIONS

North Division

• Oregon (10-2 overall, 8-1 in league play) - the world is their oyster if the O-line gels quick and QB Thomas stays healthy. Wins the division.
• Stanford - (9-3, 7-2) - great QB, solid talent, but key losses from last year + new coach.
• Washington (7-5, 5-4) - Dawgs get over the hump and win more than they lose this season.
• Cal (6-6, 5-4) - Bears not that good. Not their year.
• Oregon State (5-6, 4-5) - lose too much talent all around to compete for top end of this division.
• Washington State (4-8, 3-6) - steady improvement continues, but not enough.

South Division

• ASU - (10-2, 7-2) just might be their year.
• USC (9-3, 6-3) - not eligible for a bowl or Pac-12 championship game.
• Utah - (8-4, 6-3) - could cause a stir their Pac-12 debut season.
• UA - (5-7, 4-5) - lost five straight to close out last season. May upset 1-2 teams, but overall not that great.
• UCLA (4-8, 3-6) - another season, another sub-par performance.
• Colorado (3-9, 2-10) - sorry CU.

Pac-12 Championship Game

Oregon vs. ASU (outside chance it's Utah) in Eugene, OR - Ducks win. Better team, home field advantage. Win takes them to the Rose Bowl.

WEEK 1 GAMES

Oregon vs. LSU in Dallas. LSU wins 24-17. Ducks good, LSU good. But, UO O-line has some new guys, it's a road game and no Cliff Harris for this one. Advantage to the SEC squad by a little.

UW vs. Eastern Washington in Seatte. UW wins 31-10. ESU is good for their division, but if UW is really "on the rise," they'll beat 'em pretty bad.

WSU vs. Idaho State in Pullman. Even the Cougs should beat ISU like a drum. 41-10.

Oregon State vs. Sacramento State in Corvallis. Beavs win 23-9.

Stanford vs. San Jose State at Palo Alto. Cardinal win big 44-13.

Cal vs. Fresno State in Fresno. Upset. FSU wins 24-21.

Utah vs. Montana State in Salt Lake City. Utes all the way 35-21.

USC vs. Minnesota in L.A. USC still too good and at home. They win 28-10.

UCLA vs. Houston in Houston. UCLA gets beat bad 49-10.

Colorado vs. Hawaii in Honolulu. Rainbow Warriors win 24-17.

ASU vs. UC Davis in Tempe. Umm...yeah. Sun Devils win 31-7.

Arizona vs. Northern Arizona in Tuscon. N.A. is not a pushover, but 'Cats win this one 27-13.

Spring Football Generates Fall Predictions

With spring practices now complete, it's time for the 2011 Pac-12 football predictions.

First off, no, that's not a typo in the above sentence. There are now indeed 12 teams in the league with the addition of Utah and Colorado.

Next, because the league now has 12 teams, it also has two divisions - North and South - and a championship game at the end of the regular season, but before any bowl games.

So, part of predicting the ultimate winner of the league this year and going forward will be to predict the winners of the two divisions.

Based on what I've read and seen this summer, here's how I see it shaking out.

NORTH DIVISION
I think the top two here could easily flip, but for now...

• Oregon - I do not think UO goes undefeated this season. They'll lose a Pac-12 game I think and probably their game against LSU down in Texas to open the season. I suspect the league game they'll lose is probably to Stanford on the road. That one game on Nov. 12 could very well be the key for the entire division because both Oregon and Stanford have the ability to beat every other team in the division - I just think Oregon has slightly more talent back overall and a consistent coaching staff and will end up on top of this division by a game.
• Stanford - you might think Stanford is a shoe-in for the division and league title with their all-everything QB back, but they're not because they lose a lot of talent on both sides of the ball and the coach who got them to their current level is gone. So, I think Stanford drops a couple league games - I'll guess to USC on the road and to Arizona on the road. And of course Oregon could beat them in that Nov. 12 game.
• Cal - this team has talent and good coaching. They'll finish in third place I think.
• Washington - UW, you got a little better last year finishing 6-6 and then winning a bowl game, but you lose your starting QB and some talent on D (like your leading tackler). I think 6-6, 7-5 is what you're looking at again. 
• Oregon State - not the Beavs year this time. I think they sink. Oh sure, they'll upset some teams (and as usual when they play Oregon they'll play great), but over the course of the season I see them slipping down to the lower tier of this division.
• WSU - this team will be better in 2011, but I think they're still looking at losing most their league games. Sorry Cougs. I wish I felt differently. I do.

SOUTH DIVISION

• USC - I think USC is the class of  this division. They are currently ineligible for post-season play, so could not play in the Pac-12 championship game. But in any case, I think they outclass all these teams. The downside for USC is they play both Stanford and Oregon on the road. I don't see them winning at Autzen, but they have a good shot at Stanford down in L.A. A run through the rest of this group undefeated would still get them to the top of their division, however.
• ASU - this is one of those teams that is picked highly every year and every year finds a way to disappoint. Entertaining at times and unwatchable at others, ASU confounds the experts. I'm not expert, but I've seen enough "failure to launch" with the Sun Devils that I don't think they're going to surpass USC on the field.
• Arizona - two seasons ago, these guys finished second in the league and expected great things in 2010. Not so much. Sure, they won more than they lost and made a bowl game, but they lost their last four games and then got killed in their bowl game. They are good enough to rise up any week and knock someone off and probably will to the degree that it'll land them in this position.
• UCLA - similar story with the Bruins as the Sun Devils - a lot of hype every year, no corresponding results. So, I'm slotting these guys in for lower middle of the pack until otherwise proven different.
• Utah - not going to be very good in their debut Pac-12 season. Sorry Utah, I just don't think so.
• Colorado - just not that good.

CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

• Oregon vs. Arizona State. Yep, I think that's how it'll pan out. Because USC is not eligible, I think we'll see the Sun Devils slip into this game. A plausible alternative from each division would be Stanford and Arizona if things fall right for them. Anyway, if my prediction comes true I think Oregon will have the better record than ASU and therefor the game will be at Autzen. And therefore, I think we're looking at a third straight league title for UO. 

If that all comes to pass, I do not think Oregon will be in the national championship game. They had their chance last year, and it's REALLY difficult to get into that game unless you're in the SEC. No, I think the Ducks would be looking at the Rose Bowl. And if that happens, I'm really hoping for a more winnable match up than they've had the last two bowl games.

Last Football Post For Some Time - 2010 Season Ending Thoughts

I've had fun writing about the 2010 college football season, with a special focus on the Pac-10 and my Ducks. But, like the Ducks' narrow defeat in the big game last Monday and indeed the Pac-10 itself (it becomes the Pac-12 next season), all good things must come to an end. So, this will be my last football related post for quite a while.

First, for anyone - like, maybe all two or three of you! - who tuned in and read my stuff, thanks. I hope I offered some insights and a little humor.

Next, here's my quick re-cap of the season...

• Ducks - I am very proud of their season and how the dominated virtually every team they played during the regular season, the fact that they won the Pac-10 for the second year in a row and that they represented so well in the big BCS championship game - narrowly losing on the last play of the game to a GREAT Auburn team. And, they finished #3 in the rankings. I admit that just after the game I was crushed that they lost. Crushed. Knowing how hard it is to get to that game, and being so close to pulling off "the big one"...only not to do so and have crazy stuff contribute to the outcome (was that guy's wrist down? And, sure looked like Harris picked Newton but they didn't give it to him) was pretty hard to take. Anyway, it stings worse when its your school. But, with a week to ponder it now, hey, the Ducks did great all year long...including that game. Very proud. What a wonderful season. They'll be loaded again in 2011.
• UW - nice recovery to their season and bowl win. Husky fans have reason to be optimistic. They will need to replace at QB, so that could be a mitigating factor to winning more than 6 games next season, but hey...going in the right direction.
• Stanford - look out. These guys will challenge for the league title or more next season.
• Rest of the Pac-10 - nobody else really had a season to "write home about," but each team offered some bright spots - even WSU. No doubt next pre-season we'll see predictions of ASU or UCLA finally rising to the top of the league as we do every year.

So that's it folks. With the small exception of some spring practices, college football really doesn't focus in until August - a good eight months from now. Not sure if I'll repeat my week-by-week posts next season, do something different or just give all you people a break and not do any of it.

Pac-10 Bowl Predictions

Here are my predictions for Pac-10 bowl games that are not the BSC Championship Game...

Holiday Bowl: 6-6 Washington vs. 10-3 and #18 ranked Nebraska on Dec. 30 in San Diego
Earlier this season Nebraska visited Husky Stadium in Seattle and absolutely obliterated the Huskies by the score of 56-21. As bad as that score is for the Dawgs, it was actually worse than that. UW could not stop the Cornhuskers and could not get anything going on their own offense. It was a first class beat-down.

OK, so how is this going to be a game worth watching? Well, the Huskies did improve some since their early season drubbing by Nebraska, and Nebraska - despite finishing with a very nice 10-3 record - cooled off. So, the gap between the teams is probably closer. Also, this is the second year in a row that Nebraska is playing a Pac-10 team in the Holiday Bowl. Last year they killed Arizona by the score of 33-0. Between already having beaten UW and having played in and dominated this bowl last season, Nebraska may not be as motivated as Washington - a team seeking its first bowl win in a long, long time.

Prediction: Nebraska wins 41-24. All of the above considered, I just don't think UW can compete with Nebraska and they will roll the Huskies again.

Alamo Blow: 7-5 Arizona vs. 10-3 and #14 ranked Oklahoma State on Dec. 29 in San Antonio
This one also seems to be a mis-match. Oklahoma State is coming off quite a good season, including playing in the Big-12 championship game. Meanwhile, Arizona finished its season by losing its last four games in a row. The Wildcats are probably better than what their record indicates and could give OK St. some troubles, especially through the air. However, I don't see them winning this game against a well-rounded, quality team.

Prediction: Oklahoma State wins 28-17.

Orange Bowl: 11-1 and #4 ranked Stanford vs. 11-2 and #13 ranked Virginia Tech on Jan. 3 in Miami
Conventional wisdom suggests that this will be a blow out by Stanford. Certainly they will dominate the champion of the underpowered Big East, right? After all, isn't VA Tech the team that lost both to Boise State and James Madison this season? And, wasn't Stanford QB Andrew Luck the runner-up in the voting for the Heisman award this season? For sure, Stanford will roll...right? Well, maybe that could happen. However, more likely will be that VT's own dynamic QB weapon Tyrod Taylor will have some success against the Stanford D and we'll get a closer game than most people think.

Prediction: Stanford wins 31-24. With a win, Stanford could finish as high as #2 in the nation if TCU loses the Rose Bowl to Wisconsin and Oregon were to lose to Auburn in the BCS Championship Game.

So, to summarize, I think the Pac-10 will be 1-2 in bowl games before Oregon plays Auburn for the BSC championship. I'll predict that one just before the game.