Wow! What a Rose Bowl...at least if you're an Oregon fan like me.
I did predict the Ducks would win and I predicted it'd be close for the first half and into the third quarter. And I did predict that the Seminoles would move the ball pretty well between the 20s.
But that's about where my powers of prediction stopped. I could not have seen Oregon's defense stopping FSU on a goal line stand, holding them to filed goal attempts a few times and forcing so may turnovers. And yes, they FORCED those turnovers rather than benefiting from Florida State players just making a mistake.
Throw in a great game played by Oregon QB Marcus Mariota, RBs Tyner and Freeman, WR Carrington and TE Baylis...and well, it turned into an epic butt whupping.
59-20 people. 59-20.
And with that, Oregon is the 2015 Rose Bowl champion. This is no small matter. Yes, they will now move onto the National Championship game against Ohio State. But, before getting into that, I don't think the Rose Bowl win should be overlooked. That by itself is a huge deal...and in particular it should be to Oregon fans. After all, we haven't been there too many times - six in total. And now they are 3-3 in the game all time. The Oregon Ducks, Rose Bowl Champion. I love it! And, it's the second Rose Bowl they've won in four seasons. In between they won the Fiesta Bowl and an Alamo Bowl, so the Ducks are 4-0 in bowls over the past four seasons.
I'll chime in with a prediction on the big game against the Buckeyes before the game. But before all that, lets do a re-cap of Oregon's season and contemplate that even if they lose the title game it could be their best season ever.
OK, lets start with the obvious. Oregon ran up a 12-1 record in the regular season. They've only ever had one undefeated regular season (2010), and only a few one-loss campaigns. So, yes, this year's record is great and up there with their best ever.
Next, who did Oregon beat in piling up those wins? Highly ranked Michigan State, ranked UCLA and Utah (both on the road), a top 10 ranked Arizona (Pac-12 title game), a ranked and difficult to beat Stanford squad who had UO's number over the past two seasons, hated rival Washington (for the 11th year in a row) and in-state rival Oregon State (for the seventh year in a row).
All great! In fact, I'd say that combination of satisfying victories in 2014 puts the season very high on the all-time great years for Oregon football...call it Top 3 at worst.
Addressing the one loss they had, it was against Arizona back in October and they avenged that quite nicely in the Pac-12 title game by wiping the Wildcats out. Again, quite satisfying.
OK, what else?
Oh, Oregon's QB won the Heisman Trophy as the best player in college football this season. No University of Oregon player had ever won it before.
In summary, I'd say that the combination of their overall record, who they beat, by how many points, the post-season awards picked up by various players and the Rose Bowl win makes 2014 the Ducks best football season ever right now...even before the National Title Game.
What will happen next? Come on back to this blog in a few days and see what I think. I've been pretty dang accurate predicting Oregon and Pac-12 games this season, so I may just know what I'm talking about.
Showing posts with label Rose Bowl. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rose Bowl. Show all posts
Saturday, January 3, 2015
Monday, December 29, 2014
2015 Rose Bowl Prediction
#2 Oregon vs. #3 Florida State
January 1 at 2 p.m. Pacific
Rose Bowl Stadium
Pasadena, CA
TV: ESPN
What's At Stake:
The winner: 1) is Rose Bowl champion, and 2) goes on to play in the national championship game against the winner of #1 Alabama vs. #4 Ohio State.
OREGONSince the end of the season: There have been two big developments for the Ducks since they won the Pac-12 title game - one good, one bad. On the upside, QB Marcus Mariota won the Heisman Trophy as the best player in college football this season. The negative is that Oregon's All-American cornerback, Ifo Ekpre-Olomu injured his knee in practice and will not be able to play in the Rose Bowl.
Strengths: The Ducks have all to the pieces in place on offense to move the ball on the ground and through the air...and put up points. Also, the Ducks seem to find turn overs. And, speed on special teams means they can break one any time.
Weaknesses: Oregon does not field a defense that is just going to shut a team down. Yes, they did do that to Arizona in their last game and at key times against UCLA and Michigan State. But, that was not the norm across the entire season. All told, teams can work the ball down the field pretty easily on Oregon. Also, the Ducks do not have a field goal kicker that it can rely on outside of about 20 yards...and even then it's a nervous moment for Duck fans.
Opportunities: Oregon's offense can exploit an FSU defense that has not seen thee speed, tempo and talent at QB and RB that the Ducks bring. Special teams - particularly punt returns - could be magic.
Players to watch: On offense, #8 Mariota of course. Also keep an eye on the entire offensive line and how well #21 RB Freeman is running the ball. On defense, how much of a rush does the Oregon defensive line get? See how #9 Armistead does in getting to the QB and how does the now-depleted secondary fare against FSU's passing game? On special teams, watch speedy returner #6 Nelson.
What Oregon fans say: FSU plays in a weak league and has barely escaped many times this season. In the Pac-12 they would have lost several games. FSU QB Winston is an interception throwing machine...and the Ducks feast on turnovers. Oh, and good luck stopping the Oregon offense for four quarters.
Oregon fans' secret fear: FSU QB Winston picks apart the Oregon secondary on the way to multiple scores while their D line slows down the Mariota machine on offense. That, or the game comes down to a filed goal attempt by the Oregon kicker.
2014 season recap: The Seminoles' season was basically a series of "great escapes" in which they fell behind in the first half and then came back in the second half to win...usually by a narrow margins. Throw in some easy wins over weak ACC teams and they ended at 13-0. Their marquee wins were against ranked Clemson, Louisville and Georgia Tech squads. Their offense runs the ball decently, but earns its yards and points by QB Winston throwing the ball. He has a talent for firing the ball into narrow windows, but sometimes (all too often for FSU fans) those balls are picked off. But hey, they've won 29 games in a row. On defense, the Seminoles do let teams score. They gave up 31 to Oklahoma State, 41 to NC State, 27 to Notre Dame and 31 to Louisville. So, we're not talking about an SEC-style/shut-down D here. But again...two straight undefeated seasons.
Since the end of the season: Not much news...which is good for a squad that has had some players get into trouble off the field.
Strengths: On offense, clearly QB Winston is a leader and can throw the ball really well. On defense, their line is big and athletic. And, they have a very good place kicker.
Weaknesses: FSU's defense is susceptible to the spread offense, a fast tempo and a mobile QB. Guess what Oregon does? Also, QB Winston does throw too many interceptions.
Opportunities: Throwing the ball to move it down the field against Oregon's "keep it in front of us" defense (now also minus its best cover man due to injury), having their big defensive linemen disrupt running lanes and making Oregon's QB scramble. The ability to win the game with a long field goal.
Players to watch: On offense, #5 QB Winston, tight end #85 O'Leary and #80 receiver Greene. On defense, I say watch the FSU line play. Are they getting into the Oregon backfield regularly? Are they making Oregon's QB to scramble and denying Duck RBs the ability to get to the corner?
What FSU fans say: We're current national champs - you are not. We've won 29 in a row - you have not. Oregon plays in the weak Pac-12 and have never seen the size, speed and aggressiveness of this FSU team.
FSU fans' secret fear: Oregon rips FSU for 50+ points aided by QB Winston throwing multiple interceptions...and no amount of second half heroics matter.
How It Will Unfold
Considering all of the above, here is how I think this game will go...
First Quarter
FSU has success stopping the rusty Oregon offense while the FSU O moves the ball through the air with short, efficient passes that reduce the chances of Winston throwing an interception - and they score a TD early. Oregon fans' worst fears are being realized. FSU's "ball control" keeps Oregon's offense off the field and the Ducks off the scoreboard...for the moment. However, Oregon's D stiffens and holds the Seminoles twice to field goals.
Score at the end of the first quarter: FSU 13-UO 0
Second Quarter
Oregon gets its running game going and makes FSU pay for over-aggressively rushing Mariota. The Ducks get a score. Winston throws a pick and the Ducks convert into a FG. Yes, a FG by Oregon. But, FSU strikes again for another TD by throwing long against the guy replacing Oregon's All-American CB Ekpre-Olomu.
Score at halftime: FSU 20-UO 10
Third Quarter
The Ducks get a great kick return the first time they touch the ball in the second half - setting up a TD pass from Mariota. Oregon's defense comes out with some adjustments that puts more pressure on Winston - making him throw poorer passes and getting sacked a few times. With this comes a couple more possessions for Oregon's offense - and a FG and TD. FSU eeks out a FG during the quarter.
Score at the end of the third quarter: UO 27-FSU 23
Fourth Quarter
Oregon fumbles the ball in their own end and FSU converts into a TD, taking the lead again. However, the Ducks come right back and score quickly. Now, it's down to who can stop who? I say three-plus quarters of Oregon's offensive attack starts to take its toll on FSU's defensive players and Oregon's offense hits the accelerator - scoring twice. Meanwhile, FSU becomes desperate as time is running out...they get a TD. It's UO 41-FSU 37 with a couple minutes left.
FSU makes a mistake...a fumble, a pick, failing to convert of fourth down. This seals the deal for them. Oregon takes advantage to win, and even scores one more before the clock runs out.
Final Score
UO 48-FSU 37
Tuesday, December 11, 2012
Pac-12 Goes Bowling - Comments and Predictions
The Pac-12 bowl matchups are set for the 2012 season. I think the league has a very good shot at running the table in bowl season. The matchups just favor the Pac-12 teams.
Below is who is playing who in which bowls and a few thoughts on each game...
FIESTA BOWL - Oregon vs. Kansas State on Jan. 3
Oh boy. This could be a HIGH scoring game. Oregon's O is a wicked and multi-faceted TD scoring machine on hyper drive. KSU's offense is run by 2013's version of Cam Newton. In situations like this, it's usually the team with the stiffest (gets stops) and most opportunistic (gets turnovers) defense that ends up winning. I say that between the two of these squads, that's Oregon.
Oregon 47-KSU 36
ROSE BOWL - Stanford vs. Wisconsin on Jan. 1 You won't be able to tell which team is which because both have the exact same colors, field similar "big beefy" squads who play smash mouth football, and sport very similar uniform styles - including white helmets with a single red block letter on both sides.
Wisconsin is in their third straight Rose Bowl, having lost to Oregon last year and TCU the year before. I say the third time is the charm and that the big guys in red and white from the Midwest beat the big guys in red and white from the Bay Area.
Wisconsin 28-Stanford 24
SUN BOWL - USC vs. Georgia Tech on Dec. 31
USC had a disappointing season. The Sun Bowl ain't why QB Matt Barkley came back for his senior season. However, they are playing a team in Georgia Tech with a losing record. That's right. The Ramblin' Wreck sports a 6-7 record. They're in this bowl because they petitioned the NCAA on the grounds that they should not "penalized" by being left out of a bowl by reaching but losing the ACC championship game. No matter, USC will win this.
USC 38-GT 14
ALAMO BOWL - Oregon State vs. Texas on Dec. 29 This ought to be a good matchup and worth watching. OSU is much better than expected this season and any time you get a Pac-12 team vs. Texas...seems like it proves entertaining. (Note many Holiday Bowls from previous years.) I think the Beavers win this.
OSU 27 - UT 24
FIGHT HUNGER BOWL - Arizona State vs. Navy on Dec. 29Hmmm. Will anyone outside of the ASU campus and Navy personnel watch this? Probably not...or at least not too many. Will it be a good game? That's less known. ASU might dominate this thing or perhaps it'll be close. I'll say that the Sun Devils do accelerate away from the Midshipmen to win it.
ASU 47-Navy 20
HOLIDAY BOWL - UCLA vs. Baylor on Dec. 27
I'd say that outside of Oregon vs. Kansas State in the Fiesta Bowl, this is the best matchup for Pac-12 teams...likely to deliver a lot of scoring, dynamic athletes and "wow" plays. Like the Fiesta Bowl, the team with the better defense is likely to win, and that team is UCLA.
UCLA 48-Baylor 44
LAS VEGAS BOWL - Washington vs. Boise State on Dec. 22
This is a good matchup too, and I think we'll see both squads out to prove something. It's also interesting that these same two teams play again in their very first game of the 2013 season. If Kellen Moore was still QB at Boise, I'd say they will win. He's not. He's now in the NFL. I think Washington eeks out an entertaining win.
UW 28-BSU 22
Sunday, March 25, 2012
Oregon Rose Bowl Helmet Sprouts Wheels
The Oregon football helmet used during the 2012 Rose Bowl appears to have sprouted wheels and reconfigured into a slick sports car.
Don't believe me?
Here's the helmet...
And now check out this car...
Ever see the Oregon 2012 Rose Bowl helmet and this car in the same place at the same time?
I thought not.
Don't believe me?
Here's the helmet...
And now check out this car...
Ever see the Oregon 2012 Rose Bowl helmet and this car in the same place at the same time?
I thought not.
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
Ducks Vs. My Rose Bowl Prediction
Well, it's been a couple weeks since the Ducks pulled off the victory in the 2012 Rose Bowl. Certainly I'm overjoyed with that outcome, but sadly...I'm hitting a bit of college football withdrawal.
To sooth that a bit, here are some thoughts about how my Ducks fared compared to my prediction before the game.
How did they do?
Essentially, I said that it was going to be a close one and that the thing that would probably be the difference between a UO win and a loss by the Ducks were turnovers.
Sure, Wisconsin would do what they do well, and so would the Ducks. But, my feeling was that if Oregon could limit their turnovers to one or fewer they would win.
Technically speaking, I was wrong then as the Ducks gave up the ball two times - once on an interception and another on a "scoop and score" fumble by Wisconsin.
Lucky for Oregon, when those things happened when there was plenty of time on the clock and the game very close...as it was all game long. While hurtful, those turnovers did not sting quite as much as they might have.
Why? Well, the Duck offense was scoring regularly. That and the Ducks created Wisconsin turnovers - and crucially timely ones too. One was a diving interception by an Oregon linebacker when it looked like the Badgers were once again marching down the field to score in the second half. The second was a fumble right by the sideline by a Wisconsin wide receiver very near the end of the game. Holding a one score lead, the Ducks pounced on the ball, killed a bunch of clock with their ensuing possession - and even though they had to punt, they killed enough time that the Badgers could not go the length of the field to score. Game over. So, the turnover game worked for both teams...but the Ducks a little bit more.
Moving on from there, another issue going into the game was the conventional wisdom that no matter how fast and athletic Oregon was, a big powerful defense with a month to prepare for the Ducks would stymie them - much as Auburn and Ohio State did in the 2011 BSC Championship and 2010 Rose Bowl respectively. But, this did not materialize this time. Nope. With only a couple exceptions when they had to punt, Oregon went up and down the field on Wisconsin...just a bit more than Wisconsin's offense did against the Duck D. The myth of a month to prepare was exploded. Indeed, the explosiveness and frequency of explosion by the Oregon offense kept them in the game and minimized the turnovers.
So the Ducks won by a touchdown, 45-38. Did I predict it? Not really. I felt good about Oregon's chances, but honestly I was too nervous and wary of past bowl performances to go out on a limb. I figured if turnovers went their way they'd win.
Am I happy about the outcome? YOU BET!
More college football come August.
To sooth that a bit, here are some thoughts about how my Ducks fared compared to my prediction before the game.
How did they do?
Essentially, I said that it was going to be a close one and that the thing that would probably be the difference between a UO win and a loss by the Ducks were turnovers.
Sure, Wisconsin would do what they do well, and so would the Ducks. But, my feeling was that if Oregon could limit their turnovers to one or fewer they would win.
Technically speaking, I was wrong then as the Ducks gave up the ball two times - once on an interception and another on a "scoop and score" fumble by Wisconsin.
Lucky for Oregon, when those things happened when there was plenty of time on the clock and the game very close...as it was all game long. While hurtful, those turnovers did not sting quite as much as they might have.
Moving on from there, another issue going into the game was the conventional wisdom that no matter how fast and athletic Oregon was, a big powerful defense with a month to prepare for the Ducks would stymie them - much as Auburn and Ohio State did in the 2011 BSC Championship and 2010 Rose Bowl respectively. But, this did not materialize this time. Nope. With only a couple exceptions when they had to punt, Oregon went up and down the field on Wisconsin...just a bit more than Wisconsin's offense did against the Duck D. The myth of a month to prepare was exploded. Indeed, the explosiveness and frequency of explosion by the Oregon offense kept them in the game and minimized the turnovers.
So the Ducks won by a touchdown, 45-38. Did I predict it? Not really. I felt good about Oregon's chances, but honestly I was too nervous and wary of past bowl performances to go out on a limb. I figured if turnovers went their way they'd win.
Am I happy about the outcome? YOU BET!
More college football come August.
Monday, January 2, 2012
Tuesday, November 1, 2011
Comparing UW and UO Smack Talk
Smack talk is hotting up between Oregon and Washington fans this week...and it's only Tuesday!
I'm seeing a couple primary lines of smack that I think bear a little reality check from both sides.
Husky smack against Oregon
A common line of argument:
"Win a Rose Bowl and then come back and pop off about how good you are."
Implication:
Despite Oregon's success over the past 10-15 years, the Ducks have not won a Rose Bowl and therefore really don't have much to brag about. And further, in that time frame, even the Huskies have won one Rose Bowl (following the 2000 season).
Reality check:
While the Husky line of argument is technically true, it is completely ignorant as any real fan of the Pac-10 and college football know the Ducks had no say in the fact that they could not play in the Rose Bowl following the 2001 season AND last season they played in the national title game instead of the Rose Bowl.
Smack talk rating:
Really weak stuff - willfully ignorant of what's happened in 2001 and the last 10 years. A real reach.
Duck smack against Washington
Implication:
The UW football program has been so bad over the past 9-10 years that any thought of equity with Oregon is laughable. Start winning some games and then come back and we'll talk.
Reality check:
Again, the insults are technically true, but ignorant - in this instance ignorant of recent events. Because the Ducks have beaten UW so regularly recently, Oregon fans like to dismiss the resurgence going on at UW...and they do so at the risk of being shocked come Saturday evening.
Smack talk rating:
Feeble - UW fans know how bad their team has been. Reminding them of that at a time when their team is actually improving rings particularly hollow.
Big upshot...
I'm seeing a couple primary lines of smack that I think bear a little reality check from both sides.
Husky smack against Oregon
A common line of argument:
"Win a Rose Bowl and then come back and pop off about how good you are."
Implication:
Despite Oregon's success over the past 10-15 years, the Ducks have not won a Rose Bowl and therefore really don't have much to brag about. And further, in that time frame, even the Huskies have won one Rose Bowl (following the 2000 season).
Reality check:
- Since the 1994 season, Oregon has won the Pac-10 title outright four times (1994, 2001, 2009, 2010) and split the crown once (2000). That's four more outright league wins that the Dawgs. Twice the Ducks did go to the Rose Bowl and it is true that in 1994 and 2010 they lost those games.
- HOWEVER, following the Duck's 2001 season crown, the Rose Bowl was the designated BCS National Championship Game. In those days, that meant only the #1 and #2 team in the BCS played in the Rose Bowl. Therefore, if the Pac-10 league winner was not #1 or #2 in the BCS rankings, they would be diverted to another BCS game (Fiesta Bowl). Controversially, the 11-1 Ducks were #4 or #5 in the BCS standings, so they played in the Fiesta Bowl - a game they won by beating a highly ranked Colorado team to finish the season as the consensus #2 team in the nation.
- Also, last year after winning the Pac-10 title, the Ducks were #2 in the BCS standings. So, they got the invite to play in the national title game - which as of a few years ago is now a separate game than the other big bowls. Of course they wanted to play for the title, so they went there instead of the Rose Bowl.
While the Husky line of argument is technically true, it is completely ignorant as any real fan of the Pac-10 and college football know the Ducks had no say in the fact that they could not play in the Rose Bowl following the 2001 season AND last season they played in the national title game instead of the Rose Bowl.
Smack talk rating:
Really weak stuff - willfully ignorant of what's happened in 2001 and the last 10 years. A real reach.
Duck smack against Washington
A common line of argument:
"The Huskies are a joke and irrelevant to anything important in the Pac-12. We've clobbered you seven times in a row, and unless you forgot...your team went 0-12 in 2008." Implication:
The UW football program has been so bad over the past 9-10 years that any thought of equity with Oregon is laughable. Start winning some games and then come back and we'll talk.
Reality check:
- It is true that the Huskies have not had a good run between 2002 and 2010, and indeed they have not won a league title in that time frame. It is also true that the Ducks have beaten the Huskies seven season in a row by large margins.
- HOWEVER, UW had a decent year last season, and they won their bowl game against a good Nebraska team. This year, they're bowl eligible already. All told, the Huskies are clearly improving steadily.
Again, the insults are technically true, but ignorant - in this instance ignorant of recent events. Because the Ducks have beaten UW so regularly recently, Oregon fans like to dismiss the resurgence going on at UW...and they do so at the risk of being shocked come Saturday evening.
Smack talk rating:
Feeble - UW fans know how bad their team has been. Reminding them of that at a time when their team is actually improving rings particularly hollow.
Big upshot...
- Until UW beats Oregon and/or wins a league title, Washington fans should stop tyring to undermine Oregon's recent success.
- Until Oregon wins a BCS Bowl game again, Duck fans need to temper claims to greatness or reminding the Huskies of their recent woes.
Sunday, January 3, 2010
My Rose Bowl Re-Cap Report
Well people, I'm back from my trip to Los Angeles to watch Pac-10 football champs the Oregon Ducks play in the Rose Bowl on New Years Day. I had a great time meeting up with friends, soaking up some sun and watching the game. While my Ducks did not win, I am really glad I took the time to go to the game.
You can see my pictures from the game by clicking HERE.
Focusing specifically on the game, I truly believe that the Ducks were beaten by a better team. Not a vastly superior team, but one slightly better in key areas...and that made all the difference in the Ducks losing as they did by nine points vs. winning by even one point. I think it's easier to stomach a loss such as this when you know, in the end, your team was beat by a better team. For example, ask LSU fans if they think they got beat by a better Penn State team in the Capital One Bowl the other day.
Anyway, having seen the game up close and in person, I think you can boil why the Ducks lost down to two key points. Sure, there are a lot of individual plays, other elements (like the OSU defense) and certainly what appeared to me to be very spotty officiating that one could debate, but I think the following two elements really are at the core of the outcome:
1. The Play of Ohio State QB Terrelle Pryor. As far as I could tell, the Oregon plan of attack on defense was to stop the run and dare Pryor to beat them with his arm. Well, he did. He played better in this game than he had in his entire career, doing things through the air in the Rose Bowl that he had not done in two seasons worth of play for the Buckeyes.
The Ducks did indeed manage to decently contain the Ohio State running backs enough to force the Buckeyes into numerous third-and-longs. However, virtually every time Pryor came up aces either throwing spectacularly accurate passes or dashing to the first down marker. The later type of escape was somewhat expected, but it was Pryor's ability to heave a ball (sometimes wildly it seemed) just about anywhere at any time under any circumstances and have it hit the intended receiver for a catch that was so uncanny. And this is why Ohio State controlled the clock and therefore the score and - ultimately - the game. Kudos to Pryor and the Ohio State offense.
2. Turn Overs. Despite all of what I just said about Pryor and despite all the talk of the great Ohio State defense, the Ducks did have a lead in the third quarter. After relinquishing that lead to be down by just two points, the Duck O drove efficiently down the field and were poised to score at least 3 or 7 to re-take the lead late in the third quarter. But that did not happen because...the Ducks fumbled the ball near the goal line and out the back of the end zone. No points for the Ducks. OSU retained the lead and they got the ball back.
Before this play, I KNEW the Ducks were going to win the Rose Bowl. I knew it. Score and take the lead and the clock-killing strategy by Ohio State goes out the window. Momentum would have been on the Ducks' side and all things possible. But, this did not happen. Instead, Ohio State took the ball and killed more clock with their offense and the Ducks continued to play from behind. At this point, I KNEW the Ducks would not win. Sure, there was still time on the clock, but this was such a momentous play that I realized it wasn't happening for my Ducks.
The other turn over that hurt was a deflected pass from Oregon QB Masoli that Ohio State picked off in the first half. After a short drive they scored a field goal. At the time it felt good that the Ducks held the Buckeyes to only a field goal, but looking back on it you have to realize that Oregon only lost this game by 9 points. Take that early field goal away and it's a six point difference in the fourth quarter. One score and a win. That is a LOT different than how things went down.
So, there you go. Not being able to stop a hot QB and turning the ball over. That's what killed the Ducks chances ultimately in my opinion. And, it's why Ohio State was the better team. Again, not by much...but they were. Hats off.
With virtually every player back on offense and most of the defense back too next season, I look for the Ducks to be a legit contender to win the Pac-10 again. But, I think they're going to have to really work on their pass rush defense and also be better at handling the ball on offense if they hope to repeat and/or then win the Rose Bowl next time.
You can see my pictures from the game by clicking HERE.
Focusing specifically on the game, I truly believe that the Ducks were beaten by a better team. Not a vastly superior team, but one slightly better in key areas...and that made all the difference in the Ducks losing as they did by nine points vs. winning by even one point. I think it's easier to stomach a loss such as this when you know, in the end, your team was beat by a better team. For example, ask LSU fans if they think they got beat by a better Penn State team in the Capital One Bowl the other day.
Anyway, having seen the game up close and in person, I think you can boil why the Ducks lost down to two key points. Sure, there are a lot of individual plays, other elements (like the OSU defense) and certainly what appeared to me to be very spotty officiating that one could debate, but I think the following two elements really are at the core of the outcome:
1. The Play of Ohio State QB Terrelle Pryor. As far as I could tell, the Oregon plan of attack on defense was to stop the run and dare Pryor to beat them with his arm. Well, he did. He played better in this game than he had in his entire career, doing things through the air in the Rose Bowl that he had not done in two seasons worth of play for the Buckeyes.
The Ducks did indeed manage to decently contain the Ohio State running backs enough to force the Buckeyes into numerous third-and-longs. However, virtually every time Pryor came up aces either throwing spectacularly accurate passes or dashing to the first down marker. The later type of escape was somewhat expected, but it was Pryor's ability to heave a ball (sometimes wildly it seemed) just about anywhere at any time under any circumstances and have it hit the intended receiver for a catch that was so uncanny. And this is why Ohio State controlled the clock and therefore the score and - ultimately - the game. Kudos to Pryor and the Ohio State offense.
2. Turn Overs. Despite all of what I just said about Pryor and despite all the talk of the great Ohio State defense, the Ducks did have a lead in the third quarter. After relinquishing that lead to be down by just two points, the Duck O drove efficiently down the field and were poised to score at least 3 or 7 to re-take the lead late in the third quarter. But that did not happen because...the Ducks fumbled the ball near the goal line and out the back of the end zone. No points for the Ducks. OSU retained the lead and they got the ball back.
Before this play, I KNEW the Ducks were going to win the Rose Bowl. I knew it. Score and take the lead and the clock-killing strategy by Ohio State goes out the window. Momentum would have been on the Ducks' side and all things possible. But, this did not happen. Instead, Ohio State took the ball and killed more clock with their offense and the Ducks continued to play from behind. At this point, I KNEW the Ducks would not win. Sure, there was still time on the clock, but this was such a momentous play that I realized it wasn't happening for my Ducks.
The other turn over that hurt was a deflected pass from Oregon QB Masoli that Ohio State picked off in the first half. After a short drive they scored a field goal. At the time it felt good that the Ducks held the Buckeyes to only a field goal, but looking back on it you have to realize that Oregon only lost this game by 9 points. Take that early field goal away and it's a six point difference in the fourth quarter. One score and a win. That is a LOT different than how things went down.
So, there you go. Not being able to stop a hot QB and turning the ball over. That's what killed the Ducks chances ultimately in my opinion. And, it's why Ohio State was the better team. Again, not by much...but they were. Hats off.
With virtually every player back on offense and most of the defense back too next season, I look for the Ducks to be a legit contender to win the Pac-10 again. But, I think they're going to have to really work on their pass rush defense and also be better at handling the ball on offense if they hope to repeat and/or then win the Rose Bowl next time.
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